CoastalWx

Gfs might be out to lunch with this stuff currently.

Due for

Nam crushing SNH into NE MA. Lol jacks for everyone depending on model.

Drive through some of that rain on 93. I did try to fart for you.

It may move around too. But I’ll be happy with 1-2”. Don’t need a washout.

I buy gfs jack based on low level jet.

Nothing shocks me anymore lol.

Wtf?

Yeah I didn’t want that.

Brett thinks it won’t rain.

Sunday looks great. 80s and dews.

Bocce?

Stein will be buried for many if that happens.

Lots of 2"+. some 3"+ near ern areas around BOS and widespread in NH and Maine. 4"+ ectrl NH into Maine.

I agree. Light to moderate rains north of that. But, seems like many will eventually get a decent drink.

Bocce?

The NAM at some point will have obscene amounts in a narrow area when it gets into view.

I would like the rain, but wish it holds off a bit.

That boundary sags south slowly.

I think axis will be closer to low level convergence wherever that is.

Dry wells in Taunton. They still need to dry out from the drenching this month.

I'll take a look...admittedly have not sat down and looked at what you posted.

Yes regarding your second paragraph. But to your last paragraph...waters have warmed everywhere. I am just afraid that we may be missing some things due to the new classification. Pretend we have a year where the waters near the dateline are -0.5C currently. The waters to the east off of Peru are near normal. 10 years ago maybe the waters would be near -0.9C near the dateline and -0.4C off Peru. However, is the atmosphere really behaving differently? We still have that temp differential...it's just that the temp baseline changed. I dunno...maybe I'm talking in circles, but it's why I asked regarding looking at the tropical forcing.

GWDLT. Way too early.

I know they changed the classifications of ENSO events based on the new climo. For example some years that are strong Nina...are now considered moderate based on the new climo given warmer SSTs. However, has anyone ever tried to use where the forcing is as a better proxy? What I mean is that stronger Ninas have a basic H5 pattern based on where the forcing is in the Pacific. In theory, I don't think that take should change because the new ENSO classifications call a prior strong event, moderate based on a few tenths of a degree Celsius of warming. Lets say we have a neutral ENSO based on SST anomalies. However, 10 years ago this may have been considered weak Nina, and we currently have easterly wind anomalies as if it was a weak Nina. Something to think about.