CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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I know you want the poo frozen ASAP.
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You have to do that.
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It looks like Tblizz is working outside my house today. Swear it's him.
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Timing would work out, but better chance of walking across Steve's yard without dog poo on your shoe.
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Yeah we were talking about that earlier. I secretly want that to happen...but I think it's a low prob for sure. We can hope. Lots of shit flying around during that time.
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It’s guidance though, you can’t just toss it.
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Yeah I acknowledged the 14th deal, but I’m just not a fan of how that forms verbatim. I feel like some sort of SWFE is in the cards for that one, but I could see the gfs solution too. Regardless, I’m looking past that and given better Pacific and deeper into December climo, hopeful for some fun. If we get something before that, it’s all gravy imo.
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Always the rare exceptions lol. Shows you what a good antecedent airmass can do. A good example of what I was hoping to see, is the evolution of the 0Z Canadian. That kind of shows you the types of fun you could have when blocking works in your favor.
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Yeah, it doesn’t bother me. I know my climo and it stinks the first half of December anyways. But I do think some had high expectations. Hopefully second half of December delivers.
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But I feel like that’s partly induced by the troughing out west. That’s where my bootleg reference came from. If that was the residual block that retrograded to Hudson Bay while that upper level low was dumb-belling underneath, us I would feel a lot better. In any case, after about a week I’m hopeful that the Pacific gets better with still some ridging in Greenland. Fingers crossed for that.
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I think some do though lol. Anyways the weenie in me still wants something on the 12th, but that looks like a low chance unfortunately.
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Saying the next week kind of stinks, is also in no way of saying the season should be canceled. I feel like people are going off the deep end as usual.
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It’s been trouble on all guidance. King euro has been king nothing. Mettalica said it best.
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For the next week? No.
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The Pacific telling the block to take a hike. However, after whatever happens on the 13th, both sets of guidance get better out west so I think that has legs. Hopefully something comes out of that period around 13-14.
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I edited my post to say not in Greenland. Earlier voice over ftl.
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Loop the EPS 500 MB anomalies, and you’ll see what I mean. The block is elongated in Greenland and then it sort of get a boost by the cutter or SWFE next week, But that occurs to the north of us. Not in agreement.That is not what was modeled even three or four days ago. It might be a different story in the interior if we can get more of a southwest flow event next week. There’s still a chance even coastal areas can get some snow, but I would obviously caution that.
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Not sure what to make of the 12th. I think it’s voodoo but I’d still watch. Still a SWFE type deal possible on the 13-14.
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The nao is becoming kind of bootleg . The eps shows is really elongated and weakened as heights are knocked down from a temporary H5 trough. This is sort of what the gfs showed yesterday at 12z when everyone mocked it including me lol. You can see the height changes below. It does help form a block after day 7 or so and the pacific continues to show a very favorable look so that’s good.
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Well further north and west and higher up obviously is more confidence. However that could include your area too.
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The CPC graphic looks fine. It’s not a cold look. However, potentially cold enough over the interior anyways for snow. The coast too if airmass is sufficient.
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Nope
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Kevin?
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I mean op runs gonna op run. Not sure why we are even commenting on them as much as we are, but I’m guilty too.
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Yeah. Almost looks more like a SWFE.
