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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    I'm sitting here looking at that image, and glad I am not at work with the things happening below the desk. Good God.
  2. CoastalWx
    I mean look at this. 4:30 3/31/97. Look at this wall of convective precip running into a below 0C column from nrn CT, nrn RI, and just south of Boston. Can tell by the smoother echoes. Just an effing firehose.
  3. CoastalWx
    I understand what you mean. But with my hand raised, I’m just trying to be objective. I don’t expect much here unless something changes. I’ve made peace with it. I’m definitely not trying to show emotion or bias:
  4. CoastalWx
    I mean thunder started that day. The lift went absolutely bonkers.
  5. CoastalWx
    Is that one hour critical? LOL. If the model you are looking at shows a start time at 00z, I guess assume 8? LOL...I gotta say...that's probably the least of our concerns.
  6. CoastalWx
    It cooled especially off the deck all night into 3/31. So once we got lift nuking the DGZ and winds turning north, we were off to the races.
  7. CoastalWx
    And timing matters. Having this after midnight Monday is good. Get the meat going already as daylight arrives.
  8. CoastalWx
    That storm had a better airmass with a good high to the north funneling cooler and drier air (wetbulbing helped cool us). That low also was well to our SE.
  9. CoastalWx
    If that were the case, I would have been fired years ago as I smoked cirrus while forecasting 30" in NYC. I'm looking at this as a met, not a weenie.
  10. CoastalWx
    Here is 925 prior to the onset of the euro op. That's a mild airmass to start. You got temps NW of Maine above 0C at 925. Look where the good stuff his. Next to Ray's Golds Gym nipple low NW of Toronto. Sure this can be overcome, no argument there...but it will depend on being in the real meat of this stuff, especially below 600' or so. If you expect 2-4" then nothing to worry about. But for 12" plus, I think you need a lot to go right.
  11. CoastalWx
    Because I feel like everyone is dropping their undies and treating this as a mid winter storm. It's not. There isn't a whole lot of room for error. Exact track and intensity rate matters. You simply cannot treat this as if we had a 1040 high to the north in January.
  12. CoastalWx
    Maybe, but I'm applying some realistic meteorology too.
  13. CoastalWx
    Everyone needs to realize though that we literally have no cold when this starts. Even high elevations will waste a little until it really gets going. There is very little room for error with yet another garbage airmass and later in the season. Only thing better this time is a more dynamic system, and perhaps more of an ageostrophic (northerly in our case) component to the wind...but it's not drawing any cold air south really.
  14. CoastalWx
    Honestly, I thought you'd be better maybe more east since this whole thing tilts NW and you'd get the mid level goodies. Further west and it may send it to NY state.
  15. CoastalWx
    Still not a fan of so many members west of the cape.
  16. CoastalWx
    Sorry for your loss JD.
  17. CoastalWx
    Hopefully more subdued and later capture. That would also get mid level goodies into CT and western areas with a look just east of the op. Or we can always have the Ukie blizzard lol.
  18. CoastalWx
    6z euro looks a little less aggressive. We’ll see if that means anything
  19. CoastalWx
    What’s the pool?
  20. CoastalWx
    That’s not happening. Boundary layer is pretty warm to start.
  21. CoastalWx
    My “gut” says NW CT on north and into nrn ORH and CNE is the place to be right now. Obviously things can change, but that’s what these overnight runs tell me.
  22. CoastalWx
    Models are pretty darn warm tonight.
  23. CoastalWx
    the gfs would likely be less snow than shown. You don’t want this tucking into CT with a marginal airmass and the 10:1 maps aren’t going to help. I have this feeling the low is going into SNE.
  24. CoastalWx
    Boston area would want a tick SE. 128 west ftw.
  25. CoastalWx
    It’s like 4 hrs of rain and then partly sunny.
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