CoastalWx

ECMWF, EPS, weeklies etc. I think the seasonal stuff is understood as being not concrete no matter if it's CFS, Euro Seasonal etc.

And don't forget the "Not gonna happen James.." to the bowling ball s/w that somehow eventually found a way to amplify right after the 1/24 snowfall. RIP James.

I was there. I lost it when Ginx was trying to make chicken salad out of the chicken shit pattern we had. He was talking about sledding with kids on 2" of snow as they went to the ER from head trauma.

Yeah I've been out of the long range loop, so I try to ask around to gather thoughts. One common thing told to me....."ECMWF more overrated than Josh Allen." And I quote lol.

One thing brought up by the seasonal community is all the guidance seems to be a bit too biased (at least right now) in insisting on a blow torch CONUS. Could be ENSO related on the seasonal guidance (think CFS and euro weeklies). What has worked well is timing of features like CCKWs. This is why there was mention of a window late month into early December and it seems to be working out so far. I don't know if all vendors had this, but a good friend of mine brought this up to me. If one assumes this continues to work, then we have a warm mid month maybe starting second week of December, and then flips cooler again maybe later in 3rd week of month and beyond. The general theme is to take these weekly forecasts with a grain of dally more-so than normal.

An expanding wind field on the west side. It's just some fun hyperbole. Everyone relax.

Maybe Fisher does. He likes the tight polos.

I go outside. Maybe get a fire going etc. Nobody wants to come to the house in Birkenstocks and a short sleeve polo.

That Christmas 2015 was the worst. Thank God for beer.

Because it's nice to get into the Holiday Spirit. Nobody wants a Thanksgiving sweating balls off and dodging mosquitoes.

Meh, get the front through and have a nice cold T-Day.

Looks warm this run.

Noel 2007? LOL.

Violence approaches on the GFS. Wow.

You're a mean one......

I think that might be delayed. I still think we have a window late month into early December.

Just hopefully not violently cold and dry lol.

I sense some violence over the next few weeks.

Closing this weekend.

Nice 6z cane ticking the cape.

Feels like cheating when your squinting lol. Dry air ftl.

Still waiting for good, real flakes like what Dave had. That’s when I’ll consider it real.

Earlier this month I had a big graupel shower with flakes mixed in. Actually ocean effect too.

A few small flakes here now.

What are your temps in ORH county?