There were plenty of Stein and Sun with dews last two weeks. Was great. I don't mind the change, but we have a torch awaiting later this month into Torchtember.
I do agree and said this a few times that it likely becomes a "late" season. So there is time to get active. But to be honest, I thought it would be more active. Basically Beryl is holding down the ACE fort.
I agree with you. I think that’s all we are saying. Needs to shit or get off the pot quickly and there is a MJO suppression wave coming in not too distant future.
We’ve had a lot of dust too up until recently which suppresses.
Still sort of early, but given the predictions, I definitely expected it to be more active.
I’ve looked it up a few months ago when I first heard that. Seems fairly new over the last few years or so. I’ve heard of QBO theories and what not, but never heard of that until this season.
I’ve never really heard of that until this year. So if the experts all knew about it, why did they whack their weenies to warm water? Warm water is one of several components. Maybe it needs more examining as this theory seems fairly new. We did have a pretty active season a few years ago.
I’m sure they already have solar pressure or whatever it is to blame.
We’ll need a super active September to November which I guess is possible in theory, but pretty lame season outside Beryl. At least that one was impressive.
You risk more land interaction too.
I dunno, when you start saying “but if this happens, and then this happens…” good luck. It’s just not the setup as modeled.
But track away lol. Hope I’m wrong.