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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. Pattern is lousy overall going forward. However, it is possible something could sneak in given the flow from Canada like some op runs suggest….but overall it’s lousy imo. Definitely prone to warmer solutions and cutters.
  2. Some of the qpf will be used to wetbulb I think especially south of ORH. Still some questions as to exactly where the precip shield blossoms too. But that BOX map looks decent. Don’t expect anything around BOS other than ending as flakes.
  3. I looked at that. It looks like some sort of WF convergence because flow is SW.
  4. Gonna be ugly at times verbatim after this weekend. But, we could sneak down some shallow cold to make things interesting, especially the interior. Overall expect AN it seems to the end of the 11-15 day. Canada overall is pretty cold.
  5. Trust me, he's massively deflated after the last two winters. He now knows enough to evaluate whether or not we are screwed looking at the models on tropical tidbits. LOL.
  6. It's been accepted. We look out the window with breathe fogging the glass and weenies pointing NW. Can't expect much with S flow in early December.
  7. 18z HRRR going strong in the ORH hills. Still iffy for a time by Kevin's hood, but he'll flip to good snows verbatim for a time.
  8. Literally every event except the two CJs.
  9. It beefed up from 00z, but bulk of QPF is SE of a KBOS-Ginxy line.
  10. Euro with 6hr QPF from 6z-12z of 0.2" or so at ORH. Those flaccid rates aren't helping.
  11. Clowns are gonna clown in these setups. Just beware.
  12. But I’d say greater than 15:1 possible after it cools slightly from like 6z-12z in higher elevations.
  13. Ratios likely will be less than 10:1 initially, especially south of ORH. Even Kevin will be slop for a bit. As temps cool to 31-32 near 1K, ratios should be higher as lift goes into the DGZ. Not sure how high as layer near 925 is still mild for a time.
  14. Strong isentropic lift and some steep lapse rates aloft so that will help offset the typical srly flow/low qpf results one would expect. So I guess the question is where roughly in longitude does this occur? Near NJ/NYC or further east?
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