CoastalWx

Just came across some classics.

Nobody said it would alleviate the drought. Last week when everyone said no rain, I told them that we have a huge trough to our west. Models will struggle with s/w placement, but it will rain. This was for the New England region, obviously we cannot get hyper local like Bristol county when we are 5-8 days out. We had a good soaking (>0.5") in 90% of the area. The fact Taunton missed getting almost 1" by like 7 miles as the crow flies, it just shit luck. Going forward they'll be a few showers there tomorrow, with a better chance of something Monday and then again Wednesday. It's October. A half inch goes a long way unlike in July when it dries up an hour later. Stein is done for now. Maybe he has Bob and Brett by the taint, but he isn't getting stronger.

That is a great graphic. Very telling.

71-72 had snow right through March with lowest in January actually. At least locally. I'd take that match.

Thanks guys. I heard 2016-2017 mentioned by a few energy people too.

I should be more specific and mention the SST pattern down by the ENSO regions. Not globally or anything.

What do the composite winters look like if we take the current SST pattern with similar QBO numbers? Nevermind strength, just curious about SST anomalies and the current QBO outlook.

Looks like we uninstall today or tomorrow. A sad day as the summer of 2020 ends.

Phin slanting rain amounts like snowfall in 2010.

Maybe there were wind issues? I think you need some more examples to see if there indeed is a weird discrepancy.

Let me know if you cannot see those images.

Other than a MJO passage in Aug, we have had forcing in the IO to about the maritime continent. Also, easterlies have been solid between roughly 135E to 135W. So Nina is certainly asserting itself on those metrics. You could argue there has been a slow adjustment east to the forcing, which would be good to see into November.

We joke, but I definitely try to give my best thoughts. I’m a little nervous about Monday, but gut says we should get some rain.

Gfs rip and read?

I have an issue with windy rain events. My Davis had 0.28” while my other gauge had .40. The other day when it was calm, there was like .01” difference. I also think trees are an issue when it is windy. My Davis is apparently close enough to feel the effects. I’m in a windy spot so it is what it is. I’ll definitely get a stratus.

GFS has nothing. EPS is bullish. This would be the setup for the euro to win its mojo back.

Euro has sustained 50kts in Boston harbor Monday night. Gone wild.

Little nuke on the euro for Monday.

I'd like to see that.

That was an incredible event. Non stop LTG coming off the lake there with 3"+/hr snows.

I think NJ had like a 1-3" event in October 2008 as well. I remember Kevin had leftover -SN that evening as it moved NE. Their winter in 08-09 was not too great IIRC. Like Tip said, October is akin to April with the bowling balls and cut off potential as wave lengths are in flux. By default, this means you are prone to meteorological events that can be bizarre and out of the ordinary. By no means, do they have any say on the pattern 2+ months later.

But we told you near half inch or more if lucky. You had almost 1" like 6 miles NW.

What forecasts? From a model 6 days out? I think this worked out well over the last 2 days.