CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Ray will be happy to blog for SAV
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Looks like the next threat for anything is around the 6th.
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Yep haha. But the pattern overall has bullets in the chamber from what I can tell. The NY deal looks like dung.
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Hopefully it won’t happen as it will be congrats Memphis to Raleigh for snow.
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Man that euro run was insane for cold. Jesus. There is definitely support for that as ensembles do break off a piece of the PV.
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Gfs is a torch. Don’t do it.
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Even for you.
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Pretty borderline if you ask me.
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Yeah just casually talking about it. But that timeframe has had some modeled biggies. Makes sense with the long wave look. Kind of what I meant yesterday about op runs hinting at certain things. You can’t take it verbatim, but sometimes they show their hands.
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They’ll probably be a couple of suppressed storms if that pattern holds. Looks like a pattern that could support a Dixie snow event. Maybe not in the next two weeks, but perhaps after.
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Weird storm as shown. Srn s/w sort of runs ahead and keeps moisture to the east while the nrn s/w digs and has an arc of precipitation more on the temp gradient with strong fronto. They finally get together just off the coast where the nrn S/w finally digs and induces low pressure off the coast.
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Why do you do this to yourself
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I’m talking verbatim. That’s a terrible airmass right through 850. It’s like 0C at 850 before it starts way up into NH. Now if we could curl H5 underneath and close off H7 then I would agree snow could sneak in further south. But as it is, all the good forcing and latent cooling needed moves into NH. It probably ends a a coating of slop, maybe more up by ORH county.
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Let’s get this whole thing south
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Now if that went south, sure. But putrid airmass with that track.
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18z gfs to me was more latitude based. I’d want to be in the monads vs Tollandtucky. 850 0C won’t cut it when deep lift is north.
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Trailing s/w actually is more interesting with some squalls perhaps along the trough passing through.
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850 is 0C to the MA border.
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I don’t know. That low is tucked in and H7 fronto is well north for dynamic cooling maybe ORH county 1k spots could pull an inch or two? It’s barely -1C at 925.
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Low level temps are putrid
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I see just fine. Looks like garbage.
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Yeah lots of confused weenies
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18z gfs is putrid for 1/2. Put away the ptype maps
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Time to truncate my life if that happens. Dynamics wont suffice.
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4/1/97 was over 30” where I was. I’m also realizing the long duration event here in 2015 was over 30…..but I wasn’t home much for the time to measure. That extra 3” of wtf that night when I went to bed sort of convinces me.
