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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. Ray will be happy to blog for SAV
  2. Looks like the next threat for anything is around the 6th.
  3. Yep haha. But the pattern overall has bullets in the chamber from what I can tell. The NY deal looks like dung.
  4. Hopefully it won’t happen as it will be congrats Memphis to Raleigh for snow.
  5. Man that euro run was insane for cold. Jesus. There is definitely support for that as ensembles do break off a piece of the PV.
  6. Yeah just casually talking about it. But that timeframe has had some modeled biggies. Makes sense with the long wave look. Kind of what I meant yesterday about op runs hinting at certain things. You can’t take it verbatim, but sometimes they show their hands.
  7. They’ll probably be a couple of suppressed storms if that pattern holds. Looks like a pattern that could support a Dixie snow event. Maybe not in the next two weeks, but perhaps after.
  8. Weird storm as shown. Srn s/w sort of runs ahead and keeps moisture to the east while the nrn s/w digs and has an arc of precipitation more on the temp gradient with strong fronto. They finally get together just off the coast where the nrn S/w finally digs and induces low pressure off the coast.
  9. I’m talking verbatim. That’s a terrible airmass right through 850. It’s like 0C at 850 before it starts way up into NH. Now if we could curl H5 underneath and close off H7 then I would agree snow could sneak in further south. But as it is, all the good forcing and latent cooling needed moves into NH. It probably ends a a coating of slop, maybe more up by ORH county.
  10. Now if that went south, sure. But putrid airmass with that track.
  11. 18z gfs to me was more latitude based. I’d want to be in the monads vs Tollandtucky. 850 0C won’t cut it when deep lift is north.
  12. Trailing s/w actually is more interesting with some squalls perhaps along the trough passing through.
  13. I don’t know. That low is tucked in and H7 fronto is well north for dynamic cooling maybe ORH county 1k spots could pull an inch or two? It’s barely -1C at 925.
  14. I see just fine. Looks like garbage.
  15. 18z gfs is putrid for 1/2. Put away the ptype maps
  16. Time to truncate my life if that happens. Dynamics wont suffice.
  17. 4/1/97 was over 30” where I was. I’m also realizing the long duration event here in 2015 was over 30…..but I wasn’t home much for the time to measure. That extra 3” of wtf that night when I went to bed sort of convinces me.
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