CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Meh, maybe slight low level conv, but I think the forcing really helps it. Either way, NYC to south coast.
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Those satellite images aren't going to be perfect. Trust me, I live here and work in Andover. I remember that year better than my own anniversary date. The jack was near me to about Norwell. I'm not just saying that because I live here and biased. You had 30"+ in the long duration event and over 15" from the event after. N shore didn't have that. They had near 20" in NBT in the 2/15 event, but not the long duration one.
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I don't see an inv trough, but could be a band of SHSN or even a squall across NYC into the areas of srn CT and RI....MVYT/ACK tomorrow morning.
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The long duration event really sealed it for the S shore. Like i said, jack was likely just S of me. When depths get near 4' and it is wind whipped, good luck trying to compare as a metric.
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January 16 2021 - Inland runner Rain/Snow/Wind
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I was thinking that. I'm more to seasons in seasons. Back to my dream bayside beach house on the Cape for the summer. -
Well Siberia was warming quite a bit until this year.
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Ha, you are probably too kind with that, just posting the EPS. If the model is correct and there isn't some sort of MUO destructive interference, maybe it does make more of a fun Feb? Perhaps that is what the weeklies were trying to say. It's something I'll keep an eye on going forward. I'm not really sure what to think.
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50mb vortex splits again. Similar to this recent one.
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So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out.
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Nah they’re just stuck there.
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I know down here the two storms that followed the SB had some more meat in them. It was never a wet snow but we got close to tipping over to sleet on 2/2/15 and the long duration one on Monday also got more juicy when we were on the other side of the CF.
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Tossed
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I will say that Rockies ridge after day 10 does have legs. That would be why the EPS was trying for action. It also leads into Feb which for now, does not look to be starting as a typical Feb Nina. It’s frustrating as hell for someone like me as we roll snake eyes, but eventually one or more of these should work out.
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Not gonna happen.
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Suck. EPO ridge tilted too much SSW-NNE and the -NAO probably too much on the euro. Can't get much when the s/w's and ULL dive to the SSW off of CA.
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Shallow grave for winter '20-'21?
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Ha, at some point you just shrug and say nothing you can do.
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That’s why I haven’t been down on the first half of Feb. It looks like we may have festering -NAO for a time. Also, another 50mb warm nose punch develops near the dateline and side swings on the vortex from the dateline.
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I do.
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The whole pattern is modeled correctly. But within large scale patterns are details you can just really narrow down. Especially with models that have 30-50 members in them. They will smooth out those details. I will say the gfs op runs have shown the details fairly accurately, but I would Never weigh op runs much past a week out.
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Just be happy we had some big events even in lackluster winters. Imagine being a kid when you had 3-4 subpar winters in a row where your largest storm was 6-8”.
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But all we have is paper when you’re over 10 days out. We don’t have the skill to break down those that produce and those that don’t.
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Good illustration of how these little s/w features just mucking things up. That cutoff near CA is effing us in the near term.
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How about just stop looking at Twitter?
