CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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What a nuke on the 6z GFS. And 00z too for that matter.
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I was just thinking that from a cold point of view, I like seeing that part of the vortex split south into Hudson Bay. Anyways yeah, hopefully maybe it leads to a more sustained -NAO.
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FWIW the PV now splits at 50mb on the EPS. Seems like a top down type deal is being shown.
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I'd like to see ACK get over their normal seasonal snowfall in one GFS run like the 00z showed.
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LOL I will change it if I need to. You can't really blame people who just don't know weather.
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Ortiz bloop to center. Damon running to the plate and he can keep on running to New York…… Nevermind.
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Op runs gonna op runs. But, ensembles still look pretty good. Euro op still shows the chance of some of these needing a little too close for comfort……but you get the idea.
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I saw the starlink satellites as well. Pretty cool.
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Op runs are gonna be all over. GEFs looked fine.
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Gfs looks fine to me.
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Ginxy drifts
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We had -NAO look but never had confluence sustain itself like what’s modeled.
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I don’t recall seeing that look in December. We had the blocking, but the PV got pushed west and we never had true confluence to our northeast.
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He whined about Rihanna for two days.
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I mean first chance of anything might be day 7-8. Not exactly clown range.
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That's not true at all. Not this "close" in and not from multi suites of guidance.
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I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled?
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I've seen that floating around too. I don't mean that in a bad way.
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Doesn't get any more unstable than this. Go up moist adiabatically from 900mb and you can just envision the MUCAPE. TTs 61 lol.
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That was a bad bust. Guidance was too focused on the WAA delivering the precip and seemed to underestimate the explosive nature of the deepening mid level lows. That was a sub 500 Hpa low going under SNE. Unheard of really. One would wonder if the anomalous nature of that just did not play well with model guidance.
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Charts!! This was sent to me from a met friend. I like this view. Two things I noted. Go back to a week ago. 1) PNA trending more negative. (Shocker). 2) The NAO area with more ridging. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202302130000¶meter=geopotential 500 hPa
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I don't think it's threading the needle. In fact, it squashes one event next week. There would be wiggle room. I almost want to see that one event squashed in lieu of something much bigger.
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Canadian would work.
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Take the under a bit on BHO. I think they were "excited."
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Yep, love to see that.
