RitualOfTheTrout

17 hours ago, TimB said:

Today’s storm wasn’t the be all, end all of storms, but it reset my patience meter and hopefully did the same for others.

I think we did pretty good for what this storm ended up being. Can't complain about steady moderate to heavy snow for an hour or two. Given its going to get washed out Tuesday it only being a couple inches makes that more palatable anyways. 

17 hours ago, TimB said:

Also I see three stars between f and k, so I’m not sure what word you were going for 

Lol Any feel free to choose any adjective you can make fit. 

20 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Me and Tim talked it out.  We’ve moved on.  Time for everyone.

Glad to hear it. Lets try to keep this thread civil and mainly obs and discussion. Use PMs or the banter thread for the other stuff. Or as mentioned by others, the ignore feature. Save explitives for things like I just got a f***k ton of snow. 

We are a small group so in slow times bantering in this thread isn't a big deal, but for me coming in on the eve of a storm and seeing all the bickering / fighting was really unnecessary. 

Measures about an inch a three quarters. Its heavy and wet, probably 2 if I had done the snowboard thing. 

Looks like another heavier burst back building on radar, not sure if it will hit the city or not. 

29 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Had a Virga storm for awhile but it’s thumping now. 

Its nice for sure. Bonus points for daytime weekend timing too. 

17 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

My wife thinks I am nuts staring out the window waiting for first flakes. Hahaha

You are, but so are the rest of us in here. 

Light to borderline moderate snow right now. Temp down from 34 earlier to 32. Light coating on the grass and shaded pavement currently. 

Wow.. what a mess this thread turned into... Cleanup on aisle 5.

GFS and CMC look decent, Allegheny is right on the dividing line of the higher totals and warm air might be an issue at least at first. Probably not enough confidence for NWS to up to an advisory. Going to be a radar nowcast thing I think.

I dont get all the frustration, if theres no advisory and you get 5 inches do you enjoy it less? If we are in a warning and get 3 does the warning make you feel better? 

25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nws refuses to hoist an advisory. They give us a 4% chance to see more than 4 inches of snow. Hopefully they bust hard.

I haven't had time to dig deep into latest runs. How do thermals look? They might be concerned mixing reduces totals especially if Allegheny doesn't get the heavier rates. 

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

Not even sure why I’m looking at this - but 12Z Euro takes next weekends monster storm and eliminates the severe cutting. Takes a primary into Ky/southern Oh, and then pops a secondary over DC. That look never seems to hold, but something to watch. 

Miller B type storm on the GFS and CMC too right now for next weekend. Should be an interesting week for tracking if that trend to pop a secondary further SE continues.

Probably not completely cooked on a front thump on Tuesday either. 

15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Potential westward shift in snow amounts and minor impacts from this weekend's system are trending further west with the latest model guidance. We'll continue to evaluate through the day today.
 

From KPIT, about as good as you’ll get from them.

Thats actually fairly responsive, usually you don't see comments on the recent model runs that soon.

Would be nice to see things keep improving, even if only marginally until game time. 

Well I took my outside Christmas lights down today. I've been waiting to get another snow cover to see them but figured I might as well get it put away. So y'all can Thank me when your watching heavy snow tomorrow. 

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

I just ran through the 12Z run, and I think the first period to watch for something is next weekend. 

Caveat emptor: we've seen the danger with long-range solutions.  If you're still depressed by long-range tracking then look away now and don't come back until next Friday.

The Canadian has a beautiful look with a 50/50 held in by the growing eastward -NAO block.  The shortwave is rolling through Tennessee.  The evolution shows suppression, which is possible, but that sort of detail at this range is largely ignored.  For now we're just looking to get the players on the field.

The only problem is it's sort of on its own at that particular timeframe.  The GFS has something a little later with a ridiculous spike in the western ridge.  The GFS holds the energy back which corresponds with its deep central trough paired with the aforementioned ridge.  The Canadian is dropping a massive -PNA at this same time, so they are basically opposites in the west, but the GFS potential would be even greater.  It runs the low right up the Appalachians after deepening in the Gulf.  It also shows a TPV lobe splitting and settling in to the north of us.

The GFS also shows that beautiful triumvirate of High pressures, a Banana high +1.

The question would be which of these elements wins out: the -NAO, the Southeast Ridge, or the TPV lobe?  That SER actually helps to push the storm further inland, which might be better for us in Pittsburgh and worse for the coastal areas, but it could also be too much of a good thing.  Then there's the blocking which modeled too strong or too weak can alter the formula.

The other danger here is this is the first operational run to show a solution like this, so it could easily disappear at 18Z, thus taking the time to analyze it pointless.  HOWEVER, the look from the GFS is mostly supported by all the Ensembles (GEPS, GEFS, and the EPS).  They all show these players in position (West ridge, central trough, SER, transitioning TPV).  They aren't exact mirrors but close enough at 200+ hours to consider the OP isn't totally off on its own.

BUT, once again - I mainly wanted to point to the potential of the MLK weekend.  Maybe we come up empty.  Right now it looks as if we could have a better front-end position for something (unlike this weekend).  Hopefully those looks don't evaporate now because, dammit, I tried!

I agree 100% with this, alter any of these variables slightly combined with timing of different shortwaves (all within acceptable model error) and things will look totally different, not necessarily bad different, but minor changes can have big effects down stream. I think folks forget those minor changes (errors) grow exponentially with time. When you are trying to nail down where a 100 mile stripe of heavy snow will hit it makes all the difference even though the 500mb pattern was mostly correct at day 10+.

Your efforts are appreciated, even if this specific solution evaporates.   We need more types of discussion like this in our area imho. If the pattern ends up similar to what is advertised there will be a storm of some type in that time frame. 

I think my biggest concern for failure is if that trough in west is really deep, -PNA flexes the SER to much and we end up on the wrong side of the boundary. 

49 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

What a glorious day, 30 years ago. SMH

In the middle of an epic 4 year run.

If only someone would tell us when we are living presently in the "good ole days". Its a no wonder my brain is skewed as to what to expect in winter being 12-16 years old through that time period. Epic storm in early January, I'd kill for that now. Thanks for that bit of nostalgia, true SW PA bullseye there. I recall arguing with my friend on the phone that night after seeing the snow totals map Joe had up, my friend thought we were getting that much more on top of what had already fallen lol.

33 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

While I know that this isn’t going to be a huge event, kpit’s forecast seems kind of laughable. 

Yeah, I'd "expect" after they digest today's 12z runs, a more detailed forecast discussion will be issued assuming there is much of anything to discuss for our area outside of snow showers mixing with rain... 

This thing morphing to a late blooming miller A type storm with a track a bit to far east isn't doing us any good. I'd expect if we are going to see maybe a little faster deepening or wobbles to the NW in track which would help us squeeze something out of this that would also start today if it's going to happen. 6z Euro looked a little better, but I think we are really looking at trying to scrape together a 2-3 inch type event at this point at best. 

Either way, outside of the mountains in central PA, totals aren't super impressive, it's not like we are getting fringed on some blockbuster storm here if it doesn't work out. Long range still looks good for opportunities as we go through January. If I had a concern it would be we keep seeing lake cutters on the operational runs. I'm hoping energy doesn't get stuck in a deep trough out west pumping an eastern ridge that the ENS means are smoothing over.

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

It seems the big problem going forward is going to be a -PNA.  Now we have most of the energy being held back into the west, a pronounced trough there, and zero blocking.  The 50/50 is more like 60/60.  The issue with the following storm is there is no competition in the CONUS, so it sucks up all the energy, and there's no block to keep it from cutting - even if it were to weaken somewhat closer to onset.  That's the storm that helps setup a -NAO for the following weekend.  However, the -PNA continues and could potentially cancel out the block up north.

The question going forward then is: who wins between a -PNA and -NAO?  Recent history suggests the pacific wins, but that's TBD.

We also see, in this example, that a true Miller A will only work for the Pittsburgh area when it has time to really deepen and strengthen before approaching the coast.  It has to start bombing out in the Gulf.  Without the inland primary like in a Miller B, a progressive flow shunts all the snow south and east.  Miller Bs present their own problems, of course, like mixing and dry slots, but without that initial primary coming across, you risk getting nothing but high clouds.

The upcoming storm the Miller B Primary jump to the coast is still there, albeit the primary is very weak. The whole thing is trending weaker and faster. Sure there will be a narrow stripe of winners but not really the impressive widespread impact storm that was modeled a couple days ago. 

True Miller A's I agree, they need to be well defined and take an inland track with a mature CCB to transport moisture off the Atlantic over the mountains by the time the reach our latitude.

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

NAM amped more than 6z so far let's see if it affects the outcome downstream.

Extrapolation of the NAM, the last refuge of a scoundrel  Pittsburgh Snow lover.

36 minutes ago, TimB said:

Disappointment is just part of living in Pittsburgh, whether it’s the weather or pretty much anything else. All we can do is carry on.

You must be a blast at parties. 

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

This does suck.  Unfortunately, when I saw the bad run yesterday afternoon, it was the death knell.  Once that shows up there usually is little hope or chance left.  The bright side is we can only go up for this storm if that happens.

It just seems every time these storms start getting noticed by the news and websites they up and die off.  Frustrating, but nothing we can do.  On to the next.

Maybe that strong Midwest low on the 9th will end up weaker / more progressive too and we can squeeze something out of that in the form of a front end thump to mix to dryslot. Not the most fun storms, but better than a driving rain storm.

9 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

TBH, as long as we keep this open wave look, I’m treating this storm more as a glorified clipper. 

I agree, what was Joe Denardo rule of thumb, closed low at 700mb for our area to see 6 or 8 + storm? 

In my head based on the setup 6 was probably the high end even in the better case scenarios a few days back, but now it's just an open wave that is being modeled more and more progressive. Those are almost always lower vs what was modeled anyways in terms of totals. If this truly does outrun the NS and ends up being only the southern low, the track of that is going to be to far SE for anything meaningful here.

Id say let it play out another 48 hours before throwing in the towel. We've been on the other side where it starts trending better then goes the other way. 

38 minutes ago, jwilson said:

To be honest, I almost want to look beyond this event and notice both the Euro and GFS setting up a rather significant -NAO block the following weekend.

The ensembles and operationals all have it.  Traditionally, when you would weaken a block of this magnitude is when you hunt for the KU, but it's presence looks likely to deliver us the first chance of real cold this winter.  Anything that happens underneath is worth watching.  It's been a while since we've had this setup.

You can even see hints of all three jets at play, and with that block if you got some phased up storm (dare I say Tripple Phaser lol) there's a good bet it gets forced to go under the block. 

6 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Since I'm here, I'm watching the 12Z GFS roll out.

Looks pretty similar to 6Z thus far.  Primary is pushing into southern West Virginia which is starting to get a little close for the mix concerns.  The timing of this transfer is relevant.

One of the big differences between the 12Z and previous runs is the energy in the Central US is digging further south and we're getting more northern stream interaction (CMC and GFS).

This is a fast-moving system so we won't have time to set up for something really big, but the dynamics will determine how potent a bomb we get for 8-12 hours.

It's good they are both there, because the 6Z Euro trended away from this sort of environmental interaction.  Question is whether Euro follows.

12z GFS and CMC are fairly close in the depiction, both as you said get the primary into WV now vs GFS at 00z was further South. A lot of nuances on where the best place for the transfer to happen is, but that's getting to close for comfort. 

7 hours ago, jwilson said:

Half of the 30 GEFS members show a 6"+ storm for Pittsburgh metro or are very close to it.  Perhaps 10 certain and then a few that are inexact given the resolution.  That's not quite what I'd consider "honking," but it's still quite good at this range.  A handful more show a fringe event (borderline minor to moderate or a fringe special).  Five show what's basically a non-event.

Generally the look with the primary not making it into OH and now rather into Kentucky is much better for our chances. At least right now the warm tongue is held at bay but we also avoid the dryslot that tends to setup between the two lows during the transfer. It's a fairly narrow stripe for victory in the grand scheme of things and there is still enough uncertainty with evolution that this could go haywire for us, but its been somewhat refreshing to see generally the same look on both the GFS and Euro for a couple runs. 

32 minutes ago, TimB said:

GFS looked fantastic at 0z. Canadian was an epic disaster. Hopefully some middle ground solution wins out.

Probably best run yet I'd say. 

Overall looks like less northern stream energy phasing in. If that continues its going to slide off the SE coast. Plenty of time to see where this goes on future runs. 

33 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Less mixing on the GFS 0z.  More snow.

Happy New Year and happy tracking this week.  I said happy tracking!

Yep, its an improvement. Happy New Year everyone!