RitualOfTheTrout

27 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Band in Ohio getting thicker. Hoping that can swing north a little. I got into a little heavier snow, but mostly on the outside looking in still. About a half inch so far 

Same, about half an inch, band is about 10 miles away. Looks like its trying to creep north and widen some too. Gonna be close. 

15 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Flakes are falling in usc.


.

Same, light flurries in the air now. 

Whomever gets under that initial band should be the stripe of winners, but good sign light snow is coming down already. 

Cloud deck lowering, and air is crisp and smells like snow... Damn I tried to be out but Im back in lol 

22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

HRRR hasn't been great honestly but I think the 2-4 call is fine. Maybe we get lucky and see some good banding set up. Let's just hit advisory criteria so we can't complain. 

I think general 2-4 looks good, with maybe  a stripe of 5 if the front end piece is real and that higher end band hit the same area. 

2 hours ago, jwilson said:

NWS pretty bullish on their call.  There is going to be a narrow band of winners somewhere between Allegheny and Morgantown.  Problem is if you're outside that maxima band, you're probably dealing with subsidence and bad dendrite growth.

Pretty much all the latest mesos keep that band in Greene and Washington counties.  It will be interesting to nowcast that and see where it falls.

I thought the soundings weren't that great looking into Allegheny even yesterday in terms of maximizing potential, but I don't know how reliable those are from the mesos.

Thats how the storm earlier this year panned out too. It does seem like it bumped north a bit from yesterday, but its still not quite there. 

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I need some alone time

 

Need a 25-50 mile jog North to get everyone in the goods. Doable with 24hr lead time, fingers crossed. 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

What an epic fail, both short-term and long-term on the models. What once looked like an epic pattern has now just turned to absolute c***. It's gonna take basically a miracle at this point for us to even come close to our seasonal average. All the epic blocking that was showing up on the models has disappeared. Now it looks like even Even in February that we might warm up at the end of the month.

We were supposed to be going into the mjo 8,1,2 And now we don't even know if that's gonna come to fruition.

At this point we're just chasing A 2018 style storm. I mean, it is what it is. We're running out of time, long-range doesn't look good and even when it does, it just breaks down  Good thing I enjoy warm weather and actually take advantage of it.

Rant over

 

 

 

 

I'm sorta torn right now between just hoping for a warm early spring and set a top 5 futility season record, or root for a big fluke event. My issue is if it snows again I'll have to start all over in the stages of grief (If you can call it that?) when I feel like now I'm almost to the acceptance stage and ready to move on.

Tracking the good looks that were supposed to be setting in right now for almost a month only to have it fall apart is a real gut punch. As much as I enjoy that part of it, eventually I need some ROI to feel like it was worth it. That week in Jan was great, but if thats all she wrote its really been an awful winter. My bar was its gotta be better than last year, whelp maybe not. 

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

It's gonna be south of us. 

If its going to be South, keep it going, Ill take another partly sunny day.

Always seems like some NS shortwave mucking things up anymore, would be nice to see one of these dig in behind and phase rather than exerting to much or not enough confluence. 

1 hour ago, TimB said:

The problem with the weekend storm is there’s not model agreement at this point that the storm will even happen, let alone what areas it would hit, and we’re getting awfully close to the point where that matters.

Sounds awfully familiar.... 

Canadian and Ukie are pretty weak and nonevent-ish looking. Maybe give them some respect after this last debacle. Either way, that is the next discrete threat to follow.

2 hours ago, TimB said:

Not a drop of precip. Impressive really. Looks like there were even periods of clear skies observed at PIT through the night.

I thought that might be the case yesterday with that sharp cutoff, especially when the short-range models started showing like .01 of total qpf.

Honestly this is better, I'd rather it be a full-on miss, rather than having some flurries or something that just remind you all day what was missed.

42 minutes ago, jwilson said:

It does depend a bit on which model you followed.  The Canadian and Ukie both picked up on the southern solution earlier, starting Thursday into Friday.  Thursday at 0Z was the last run the CMC showed a really amped northern push.

The problem is forecasters, myself included, don't put as much stock in those compared to the GFS and Euro, and those two were still showing a bigger spread into Sunday.  It's a bad performance, but the GFS has been quite bad this winter, overall.

There's always those occasions where certain models score an unexpected win.  Back in 2016, for example, even the NAM scored a win, and that's quite rare.

Sometimes the pattern or setup plays into a models overall bias or particular wheelhouse which maybe allows it to be more "right" for the wrong reason. In this case usually the CMC is the amped up one so to me that was a red flag, but when it's on it's own you usually toss it. Overall, the outcomes across all guidance (ENS / OPs) did show what happened as a possibility, the part I find the strangest is how long it took for them to catch on.

Anyways, what a storm, rates are ridiculous out here, maybe 120,000 lumens per second. 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Look on the bright side if the Euro is right then that drunken neighbor is really going to ruin your night. The euro is like the drunken neighbor coming into your house and then shooting you thinking you are trespassing.

Euro just did a big rug pull for a lot of folks.... Here I am looking at this map.. If I can't have her no one can. lol

54 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I don't know what i would do without you guys. No one else understands my frustration (or excitement --> when it happens)

Is Aaron Lewis secretly a snow weenie.. you listen and be the judge. Feels pretty damn accurate this morning, even if the music isn't your style the lyrics hit through the lens of this hobby. lol

8 hours ago, TimB said:

All 0z guidance so far pretty much ends the dream. Fuck this hobby.

This storm was always a long shot, but its starting to look like this "epic" "mint" "awesome" pattern that this storm was just a precursor for is also a brief cold shot, probably similar to the week in January. Nothing we can do, just along for the ride, maybe we get a fluke, or maybe we get an early warm Spring. I'm good with either at this point.

7 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

This went to shit fast. We went from excited at 6z and 12z to extreme depression. I can't believe how bad the models have been.

Only thing I'll say is there's still time atleast the 6z and 12z for this to get a little better. Obviously anything more than a light accumulation is probably out of the question. 

Obviously nothing has happened yet, but this was an even riskier low confidence setup. There were models and members in the ENS suites that showed this completely missing so that was always a possible outcome. At this point if it keeps heading this way its going to end up as little to nothing for anyone. 

It looks like the 06z Euro is continuing the trend, even central PA / further east are probably starting to worry. Honestly, if we can't get at least 3-4 inches, I hope it keeps moving away, at this point the 06z NAM we almost stay completely dry, no rain or snow. I'd prefer that, another tick or two SE with that shield and I get my wish.

28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

3k

 

12k

 

Snow weenie in me said throw out 12z 3k, now we take and throw out the18z  12k lol

Dang, Looks like GFS is going to just miss phasing next weekend.

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever.

Thats sort of what I was getting at, we could have really set a high bar if it was overcast a few of those nights. 

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

GFS looks like it might suck slightly less

Its definitely a hair further South with the low, and subsequently a hair cooler. Too soon to tell if its just noise, or hopefully the start of a series of south adjustments.

Im hoping we can at least score a brief period of heavy paste that coats everything so every little bit helps.

Its also my opinion whatever "trend" you are seeing leading up in the last 36 hours or so usually continues through game time and verifies a little better if things are improving. That works the other way too, if things are slowing deteriorating odds are it will wind up worse than what models showed. 

45 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

The thermals really create the boom or bust scenario. Probably more of a tapered look to totals if we were just worried about precip. 
 

I do feel a little better about middle of the night/early morning in February versus if it were middle of the day in March. 

I agree, diurnal minimum for temperatures  can only help. To bad we can't get a couple hours of clear sky to radiate. The last week or so that probably helped skew this warmth a bit as we still managed to drop into the 20s a few nights. 

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Euro looking like the GFS did yesterday. 8” IMBY….but AGC is the battleground with a rapid drop off. 

Its such a narrow margin for victory, minor changes in the handling of that upper low will be all the difference.

Im low elevation, and generally my yard does poorly in marginal setups when a few miles any direction is usually significantly better, so I have little optimism.

Going to take some good rates to dynamically cool the column and overcome warm surface, but wherever gets that there should be impact, outside of that probably just wet roads etc. Unless the Canadian is right then everyone loses. 

33 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

It does seem a bit odd how the gfs moves the low due north that far before transferring. 

Its been consistent with doing that in some form. Looping back through the previous runs that SWPA warm tongue / dryslot signal is on display.

Crazy the difference in solutions right now on the models. 

1 hour ago, blackngoldrules said:

Not sure if I've ever seen the models this far apart this close to a potential storm. I guess still a lot of uncertainty how this is going to set up and such a high margin of error. Whoever gets the big snows from this is going to be lucky. I'm starting a new job on Tuesday. Would be my luck if THIS one would happen to nail us! Lol

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

NWS with a good discussion in the uncertainty:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- The next potential system will impact the region late Monday
  into Tuesday, with a range of potential winter weather-
  related impacts.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The cut-off low will develop a coupled surface low over the
Mississippi Valley early Monday. As the cut-off draws eastward,
it will attempt to re-phase into zonal flow over our area
Monday night through Tuesday. In all likelihood, the system will
start as rain late Monday. From there, the details get dicey.
The strength of the cut-off low will determine various aspects
of the surface low behavior. This could play out as a couple
scenarios over the forecast area.

1) The upper-low is weaker and phases more rapidly into zonal
flow. This would act to keep the surface low track more
progressive and farther to the south. Coastal low development
would then dominate into Tuesday morning. Because the low track
would be farther away, local northerly flow would be weaker.
This would lessen the magnitude of cold and dry advection
around the backside of the system. An area of frontogenesis is
possible, centered over northern West Virginia on the northwest
side of the low, though temperatures would likely be too warm to
result in snowfall. This solution would result in mostly rain
across the area with a lower probability of appreciable snow
accumulation. This is reflective of the NBM 10th percentile,
where totals amount to zero across the lowlands with a light
accumulation for the ridges.

2) The upper low is stronger and slower to re-phase into zonal
flow. Though subtle, this would affect surface low behavior and
the eventual coastal low development. Under this scenario,
ensembles indicate the surface low has a tendency to pull back
and collocate under the upper low before the coastal low takes
over. This is important. A stronger low across the West Virginia
interior could influence three processes. First, stronger north
to northeast flow on the northern side of the system would
advect cooler and drier Canadian air, capable of wet-bulbing
temperatures further. Second, the area of frontogenesis would
more likely be in an area that is cold enough to support
snowfall. Third, latency time of favorable lift increases as the
cut-off is slower to incorporate into the upper flow. These
factors could lean towards snowfall amounts toward the higher
end of the distribution. Even then, there is still uncertainty
with the exact track that the cut-off low may take, adding
uncertainty to the area that may see the highest snowfall
totals. This scenario is more reflective in the NBM 90th
percentile, which shows a sizable tract of 6"+ of snow across
western Pennsylvania and the northern West Virginia panhandle.

With the spread as large as it is between these two scenarios
and still a great deal of uncertainty in track, the current
forecast is reflective of some "middle-ground". Though not
necessarily the "most-likely" scenario, will opt to continue to
trend toward the more likely solution as more information
becomes available in subsequent updates.

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro looks really good. Still don't trust any model until 24 hours out atleast especially this setup.

Yeah, this is a high bust potential though 12z Euro did have me raise an eyebrow. 

8 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

I noticed that the Kuchera has it at 4.3 inches. Is it picking up on this maybe being a low ratio snowfall?

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

Kuchera method is generally better in marginal events as it more accurately takes into account the effect of temperature in crystal formation and melting thus resulting in a less than 10:1 SLR.  It was designed to more accurately represent what you would see if at the end of a storm you go out and stick a ruler in the ground. Conversely, I think it's also useful when it's a cold powder as it can estimate totals at a higher than 10:1 SLR.

36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What’s it look like with Kuchera ratios? Kuchera ratio maps used to throw up massively inflated totals, but I’ve noticed over the past couple of years, they have often been less than the 10:1 maps.

Anecdotally, if it's been less than the 10:1 maps, one could draw the conclusion we have experienced more borderline snow events in recent history which is what I gather you were trying to get at with this comment.