RitualOfTheTrout

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Call me a Debby downer but this such a thread the needle event. If a big phase happens there's nothing to keep this going to Youngstown. 

We need some phase to get the NS involved though to get the cold, 6z GFS was really close to perfect, get that whole progression to happen a little faster and further SW and it bombs right over us vs central PA and look out. There in lies the the thread the needle aspect though, there aren't any other features to buy wiggle room, so it all has to time out perfectly which makes it even lower odds than normal.

But dang... 

14 hours ago, jwilson said:

I agree with you here.  This isn't the character of a winter with a longer term sustained cold regime, really.  I suppose we could have something that spurs such an event, like one of the teleconnections goes off on a wild tangent at a significant magnitude and alters the character.  I would suspect the -NAO block isn't stable for a significant period.  Right now I would favor 70/30 odds of a two-week ceiling like we had earlier, meaning 70% chance the block breaks down faster than expected.  The longer-term looks on ensembles could simply be due to the smoothed mean.

The real trepidation for us here is the entrenched block suppressing the big fish to our south or off the coast and the precip shield misses us.  Most likely what's hurt Pittsburgh in previous Nino conditioned winters.  Those blocks can often move the boundary beneath us.  The saving grace is the time of year, perhaps, in that it is happening in late February / early March as opposed to earlier in winter.

Then again, the groundhog told us we'd be in for an early spring.  That should guarantee sustained winter through March.

I think it's inevitable a couple threats are suppressed or shredded if we get the blocking the ENS are showing, but I agree on the time of year, by the last week of Feb into early March, a healthy STJ wave might need some extra help to keep it under us. 

My thoughts on how things evolve would be along these lines: If we can score anything in the Feb 12th - 16th period that would be a bonus (threat the needle / marginal air mass type deal), then the blocking likely pushes most threats to far South 17th-22nd (illustrated in precip anomalies etc.) then 23rd - 29th (Yes don't forget we get an extra day of Feb this year for those worried about the calendar ) might be the first shot at a bigger storm. After that maybe a repeat of that cycle in some form for early March depending how blocking evolves, stuff above my pay grade (weak SPV coupling / MJO progression etc.) might argue for a second round of blocking to re-establish.

The deep winter enthusiast in me would prefer this all to be happening a month earlier, but on the other hand if you want to go all in on a "Max Bet" with a good pattern in early March might be the best shot for those big game hunting. Good pattern doesn't guarantee anything, still chaos / luck involved to get something to work out.

Just posting this 00z GFS solution for some positive energy and morale boost, maybe by this weekend we have something to track besides pretty 500mb patterns?

5 hours ago, jwilson said:

We're still really a week to 10 days out from determining the extent of the pattern change.  By that point, we'll be much closer to the transition period to see if things still progress as long-range guidance implies.  Ensembles haven't budged much.

The mid-week Omega Block didn't work out because we basically have a double-ridge that moved too far to the East, which blocks the trough out into the western Atlantic.  Sort of a trend this year - we can't get the boundary interaction and timing exactly where we want it.

We'll have to deal with at least one cutter, I would think, before the shift in the block and jets.

Right now it's just a waiting game.

That and that wave out in the pacific is kicking the sw out into the Atlantic. This could have been a pretty decent storm, maybe not us, had things aligned a bit better. Another missed opportunity. 

Otherwise I agree, we've got at least a week before there might be something to track, by then the specifics of the pattern change should be more ironed out as well. For now, we are just tracking that the good pattern doesn't start to degrade as it moves up in time or get kicked further into Feb.

Another round of blocking might argue the good look sticks around longer than what we had in January, but strong ninos usually favor a warm March so I'm definitely not sold on some 4 week wall to wall winter period setting in either. At least it looks dry AND warm-ish for the next 10 days.

On 1/26/2024 at 7:22 PM, jwilson said:

Pittsburgh's 20-year average (45.60) is up slightly over the 30-year average (43.04), but the average is actually down below that 30-year number if you don't include 2010, which remains a pretty high outlier.  I realize this is "cheating" to some degree.

I don't put much stock in older climate numbers, either.  Stuff from the 1890s and early 20th century is so unreliable, and it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to our modern data collection methods.  I realize they use it because they have it, and we're dealing with a relatively minute dataset as it is even including those years.  It's just a grain of salt interpretation for me.  Even the more recent 30-year average is such small sample size relative to all our climate history.  It's almost impossible to know the extent to which things are changing in terms of snowfall amounts and so forth.

There's a few things we do know, which is disruption of the northern jet because of a warming pole, melting sea ice, etc.  We've been stuck in a longer-term Nina-like base state and -PDO, but I don't know if that's related to climate change or merely cyclical, or perhaps both.  That disruption of the northern jet is likely why we haven't experienced as many clippers of late - the jet often dips south of us or is off-kilter from our latitude.  It's not as consistent anymore.  That's my theory, anyway.  Also why textbook Miller As are less common (and a lack of Ninos).

The other clear change is SSTs and how much warmer the ocean is, which is partly why the coastal plain has struggled for snow lately.  Although the warmer oceans worldwide disrupt our weather patterns more esoterically, the local Atlantic temps create opportunity for bombogenesis-type events with increased frequency.  This is where you perhaps get into a feast-or-famine pattern that means big storm and snow or anything smaller is rain.  The ocean is less geographically relevant for us, of course.

The warmer oceans, especially on the Atlantic side seem to be leading to more ridging in the SE, makes it harder for the jet stream to dip etc. We constantly see ridges link up to the NAO etc which just nukes any cold air. Clippers generally originate from energy off the pacific, so that whole environment changing due to warmth induced tropical forcing is also a factor. I recall we used to get the PV to sometimes park over Hudson bay more consistently, which provided the perfect avenue to divert the jet stream and those northern stream vorts and associated cold right at us. Clippers with wrap around LES made up a good chunk of our "expected" snow, especially early in the season. December is more like early November in terms of climo now, sometimes you can get a blast of cold, or it gets good towards the end, but the fact the Great Lakes remain ice free into Feb now is crazy. LES was almost always shut down by this time, which might have cut down on our available moisture, but also lost the moderating factor when cold would move in.

I do agree our sample sizes are to small to glean much on how things are changing on a scale larger than we can really comprehend within a human lifetime. There are also events in the not to distant past (on a climate timescale anyways) maunder minimum, volcanic eruptions etc. that we don't have a great way to understand how coming out of those vs what the "normal" was prior to make any major takeaways. As you said, there are likely other cyclical patterns within patterns that are constructively interfering to enhance the overall impacts of a warming planet. 

10 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

For that exact reason.  
It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. 
The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. 

I'm with you, barely being able to manage a "car topper" in late January is pretty pathetic and depressing, especially when its sandwiched into what is shaping up to be 4 weeks of wasted prime winter.

I prefer deep winter, like what we had last week, days and days below freezing with snow cover and frozen ground. If we get a better pattern by mid Feb we can still have a "good" stretch, maybe land a bigger storm, but it gets harder and harder with longer days, higher sun angle and rising avg temperatures to get that deep winter feel by that time. I could care less about March snow unless its a big dog, even then my enjoyment is tempered by hearing birds chirping while I'm shoveling snow and seeing snow melt even though its in the upper 20s. 

15 hours ago, jwilson said:

I think anything we might score in terms of snowfall before Valentine's Day would be considered a bonus given the overall pattern.

There's an interesting Omega Block setting up around the 7th that's worth keeping an eye on as long as it stays.  Getting the requisite cold is going to require an anomalous low, in all likelihood (meaning something really wrapped up).

Big issues right now are +EPO, +AO, and +NAO keeping the cold out of North America.  The MJO is supposedly dying in Phase 7 which isn't ideal, but that's the lesser of the problems.

The velocity of the pattern change is what remains our big question.  Do we get sufficient movement by President's Day?  Late February is one of those odd times where big storms seem much less common, then March becomes the coin-flip month.

It's not looking great, going to take near perfect chain of events for that to work out for anyone really. It's just to warm even if you get a good track. It's an interesting look at 500 on the maps, but all the indices being in the wrong phase all but guarantee futility baring a fluke.

I must admit I was dead wrong on this period. A 7-10 day thaw was inevitable. I thought by now we would be on the heels of the pattern getting better again in the first week of Feb. Instead, staring down the barrel of flushing 4 prime weeks of winter climo down the toilet and that assumes things "get good" by the 14th. By that time the entire east coast is putting all their eggs in a 2-3 week period to score a couple big storms to salvage the season, and unless we really get on some sort of heater going to be hard to please everyone.

Getting some light snow, theres a weak band just to my North. Just enough for that deep winter look and feel.

As advertised next week we thaw, its after that which has degraded. Looks like*maybe* a chance at something 30th time frame before the PNA ridge rolls east. MJO forecast shows the wave dying in 6, rather than progressing through 7-8-1. That probably plays some roll in the warmer looks. We also lost the blocking for now. Both of those (MJO / NAO) are not forecast far out with great accuracy, so if that flips could see some major changes on the models after next week.

50 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’m not someone that rips on NWS because they aren’t giving me the “headlines” I want…

But man, this band needed something more than continuing an advisory for 1-2” additional. 

There is going to be a wide swath (or at least long swath) of areas that got an additional 4-5” in a matter of hours. 

I was surprised they didn't have a special weather statement or something for it. 

Pretty jealous, would have liked to get in on some of the heavy stuff. Glad some folks cashed in and that band materialized. Seems it made it fairly far SE for a LES band, but that dual lake fetch is usually mobey for someone.

I had a burst for about 2 minutes around 5 that put down a fresh dusting. 

44 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

just missing the heavier bands to the west. 

Same, hoping to get in on the action soon.

Sun is poking through right now. 

44 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Just measured 2” on what was previously bare area. Had some briefly moderate snow, but back to pixie. Still holding out for some squalls later.

43 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Regeneration showing up on radar. Models were indicating a possible second wind mid to late morning, after a brief lull.

Yeah I think once we get the wind shift NWS to the WNW we see an uptick again. Couple mesos hinted at some lake bands, and one briefly with Huron connection. If those materialize it would be high ratio fluff with a few localized "winners". 

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Ehh… maybe I’m being too positive. I don’t see anything wrong with the 3-5 forecast. Sometimes you end up on the low end.


.

Good point, its a range for a reason, can't just look at the high number and run with it. This always looked like a light long duration setup but with better dendrite growth, instead its those tiny flakes that don't amount to much. 

Shortwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Tennessee Valley region. Snowfall rates have been light, with
the 12Z PIT sounding showing poor lapse rates in the dendritic
region. Lowered additional snowfall amounts to account for the
lower snow/liquid equivalent ratios and less favorable ascent.
Better jet support and divergence was south of the region across
the Appalachians.

The latest RAP output shows favorable omega to maintain the snow
through the afternoon

I was a bit worried when models adjusted south yesterday with the vort pass and seemed to lose some of the moisture if we might also lose some of the dynamics needed to maximize the liquid to snow ratio. Its such a difficult thing to pin down though I didn't want to be a deb for no reason. 

5 hours ago, jwilson said:

There's a bit of dry air in between the s/w's, but you can really see the separation of the jet steams in this shot.  Too bad because we would have quite the moisture pool to tap into down there.

Thats a pretty cool visual. You can see that lead s/w in the ns exiting the coast. To bad it wasn't more consolidated with the second piece. Probably would have phased with the southern stream earlier and this would have been a whole different animal. 

6 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

This has certainly improved from yesterday...

Looks like they upped totals over night a little bit too, probably includes some of the lake enhanced stuff too.

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Lower criteria to the Southwest

That was my thought too. Higher elevations will get up slope and look to have higher qpf so that probably boosts confidence in those regions. 

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Got destroyed overnight almost 2’ here, just north of here got 30-40” since 8 pm last night 

So you are pushing over 80 inches now? Wow.. 

Not much to add, generally looking between .2 and .3 total qpf. Seems like some of the higher guidance has come down more in line in that range now too . I'll dive in more tomorrow 12z when we are into the short term models. Thinking I probably jumped the gun earlier throwing the idea of warning criteria anywhere outside of the mountains though. I think advisory is still on the table.

8 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

Hug the Canadian!

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

 Oh Canada! Our home and native land! True patriot love in all thy sons command. With glowing hearts we see thee rise,. The True North strong and free! 

Still looking like an advisory level event could be on the table, if things break right *maybe* low end warning. Need to see how things evolve as we get into the short term. Saturday looking like a deep winter day for sure, fresh snow pack, re-enforced cold shot, and hints at some lake bands / NW flow snow showers.

I've been able to get outside for some quality winter fun with the dogs and kids the last three days in some form or another. The pattern may not deliver a big dog storm like some are looking for but assuming Friday works out this gets an A+ in my book. Certainly been refreshing to track and see real snow and get outside vs looking at day 14 ENS runs for hints of a workable winter pattern returning which seems like all we did last year, anyways there will be plenty of time for that next week,  but at least by then confidence should be high on winters return late month.

26 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Friday looking solid.

Quick glance all 12z models have us in at least the .3 - .4 qpf range which is probably good for a 3-5 inch setup. Would be nice to improve or hold on that. Canadian looking the best as usual lol 

Snowing pretty good here now. Woke up around 3:30 and only had a light coating, just eyeballing probably a little over an inch now. 

Looks amazing outside. Moderate snow at 16 degrees. 

2 hours ago, Mailman said:

Already a nice coating down here.

You're in a pretty good spot for this one. Wouldn't be shocked if you got 3-4 inches. 

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

The pattern materialized. Just unlucky the storm didn't materialize the same way. Still a chance this weekend. Winter isn't over.

I agree. Pretty much all guidance gets us to this look by the end of Jan, decent +pna / -epo for cold delivery then hints blocking reloads through Feb. No reason to shut the blinds. 

Plus we have at least 2 snow events. Not every good pattern delivers a big storm. 

12 minutes ago, meatwad said:

gfs gives us 2 to 4"

It's maddening how Allegheny is always on the fringe, just to far North for those Southern systems, but not far enough north for good LES or fighting the warm tongue. Pivot that qpf another 25-50 miles and we could score a solid 4 inches. It's always a game of inches with storms I know, but always seems that is were the cutoff sets up one way or the other.

Kuchera maps are probably better bet given we should be at 15:1 - 20:1 ratios vs those generic 10:1 maps.