Clinch Leatherwood

It won't matter for most of us Jerry. It's just the tuck isn't going to occur, I do think the Euro is wrong in being that amped. I think the RGEM not being locked in with it is a huge red flag and the 18z RGEM doesn't look terribly different than the 0z NAM. This is a biblical hit for eastern MA/RI/Cape. Can't/won't speak about other areas but I'm glad I bought the generator, this is the big one and I am no longer worried at all about mixing of any significance here.

We will see the rest of the suite - but like I said I've had the rug pulled out from me twice with these "new" improved model runs being on the SW edge of developing bombs. NAM just didn't get it together fast enough for some, that is the "trend" I expect we continue to see. Could get close for some of us.

What hour are you on? Due to the alignment aloft etc...through 30h the QPF/dynamics are definitely east just as it's about to get captured.

NAM will have some banging their heads on their desks right about now. It's definitely got that little jive early...so everything is captured a little later.

Probably one of the most amazing 500mb looks I've seen....just so beautiful. Not sure what the right term is on the 18z vs 0z NAM.."initially progressive" ?

0z NAM coming in just a smidge flatter early, at 500mb the 540 is definitely flatter at 12 hours. Meanwhile the monster digs down from the Lakes. I like!

There was a great AFD from in the middle of nowhere on the late day verification. Very eye opening, tried posting it three times kept getting a blank screen...then I lost the page and cannot remember which office the AFD came from. Was just something about it being slightly faster on the northern train.

There's another good article I will find Friday. It's kind of fascinating. Fishermen and those that have been on the water for generations are great resources but they want nothing to do with scientists because it usually means they lose the right to fish when they come around. My guess is science focused too much on SSTs but we will find out is oceans are able to more efficiently trap heat through the column in ways we don't fully understand yet. Warming the entire column a degree or two over a decade may have a much greater effect than sst's going up a similar amount plus it's probably a much longer lasting impact. In this I mean SSTs may see a modest change that shouldn't be damaging itself....but down on the bottom in hundreds of feet of water a similar increase may dramatically effect the Eco system and in the end us.

Sst's. versus deep column warmth. The cod and other ground fish have been shifting northeast for years because the lower water is warming. IMO this is where the science and predictions are failing us. I am betting there are significant surprises in the deep.

IMO the models are all going to be wrong and as of right now what's being observed can't entirely be explained. Jeffrey Runge, a biological oceanographer for University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute, said recently that temperatures in the gulf in the past few years have increased “dramatically higher” than the historical rate of 1 degree every 100 years. Evidence suggests that the average sea surface temperature in the gulf has risen 1.5 degrees from 2011 to 2012, he said, and that in the past four years it has risen between 2 and 3.5 degrees, depending on how one looks at the data. “It’s pretty striking,” Runge said. “We can’t explain it.” http://bangordailynews.com/slideshow/alarmingly-warm-water-in-gulf-of-maine-bringing-changes/

Jonger sorry to be short in tone I'm on my phone....just tossing out the articles etc so please excuse the sharpness. It's ugly and it's weird. The whales in particular. This year the right whales and humpies vanished north of the cape. Nobody knows where they went or why. Something is happening that is really tough to fully understand yet. I don't think it's just the last few years or this particular set of patterns. I've read that the gulf of Maine has seen a dramatic decrease in salinity during the same time period which conflicts with the theory that the Newfoundland current is weaker or displaced. Right now it seems to be everything at once from Copepods to whales that are being dramatically effected and nobody seems to really know why. What they do know is water temperatures are warmer way down. Maybe sustained intrusions will help to dissipate that heat or maybe scientists misunderstood where the heat was going and how it would feed back I'm not sure. I take no side on the climate change issue and was probably a sceptic until these last few years. I wonder if instead of in the air and sky the real effects of the changes taking place are in the water?

Because they can't get to them and sell them to you at a price that's anywhere near what the Chinese will do. Chinese cod has nothing to do with what's going on with the lobsters just south of here nor does it have anything to do with right whales making monumental changes to their habits and showing up here. Note this article doesn't blame Nova Scotia or the Chinese. Long Island was shut down because of lack of lobster http://www.newsday.com/long-island/lobstermen-brace-after-li-sound-closed-to-fishing-1.6013464

Jonger a pretty decent article. The sharp changes I would say started in 2010....but was really noticeable by 2011 as this article points out. Noticeable as in its hard to miss a bunch of 30 ton animals that were never here before suddenly showing up in massive numbers http://provincetown.m.wickedlocal.com/wkdProvincetow/pm_121874/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=6PKrbihM “We’re not seeing more whales because there’re more whales in the Atlantic, we’re seeing more whales because more are choosing to come here. That’s a distinct change that’s statistically provable.”

It's not a thin strip and it's crushed the lobster industry from just south of cape cod and points south. It's crushed the cod etc around New England. It's putting people out of business. There's a difference between being "in" the seafood industry and being on the water and around and knowing the people that have done this stuff for decades. Most are in awe of the changes these last 3-5 years. Last winter we had right whales calving off of boston for the first time in recorded history. Animals large and small are changing their behavior in alarming numbers. This summer right whales were absent from all of their normal grounds. Instead of seeing hundreds they saw a half dozen. Ten years ago they were rarely spotted ever around the cape and now they are back again already in the dead of winter http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/01/06/large-number-right-whales-seen-cape-cod-bay/55BYcgmnQQlHixMI2HQgNP/story.html The changes are happening very fast. It's impossible to ignore or claim it's not happening if you spend any time at all on the water or near it. http://e360.yale.edu/feature/a_north_atlantic_mystery_case_of_the_missing_whales/2715/

Something else is going on up here as the changes are so dramatic it's hard to almost believe. The NAO plays a roll too in driving currents but there is more at work. What we think we know and what the next 20 years will show we actually knew are likely very different. There's a pretty massive shift taking place in the northwest Atlantic these last 3/4 years

Jonger --->. More here I am seeing this change myself. Fishing folks don't communicate much with scientists because usually when they come around they are trying to close fisheries but this will give you some insight. You guys look at sea surface temps but what is being missed up in the northern Atlantic is that down 10+ feet temps are scorched compared to even ten years ago. http://bangordailynews.com/slideshow/alarmingly-warm-water-in-gulf-of-maine-bringing-changes/

And this isn't it either Jonger but was another similar study. Things are changing way more rapidly than some thing whatever the reason. It accelerated tremendously last season. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2009-11-12-new-england-fish-warming_N.htm

It's pretty well documented that fish of all types are moving to colder and deeper water. You can look up the recent studies yourself for the northwest Atlantic. In the most recent at least 50% of the species tracked had moved decidedly away from historic grounds towards colder and deeper waters.Note this is not the study I was referencing but another that has similar results http://m.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/worlds-fish-have-been-moving-to-cooler-waters-for-decades-study-finds/2013/05/15/730292e8-bcd7-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_story.html

IMO I'm convinced a lot of the change is being absorbed by the oceans and not just at the surface but all the way down. Anyone that spends a lot of time on the water from Alaska to California or Florida to Nova Scotia can tell you things are quickly changing on a massive scale in various fisheries. We lack deep to mid ocean temp data. The shift is happening so quickly I wonder how well we are going to be able to adapt. Primary and secondary food sources are rapidly moving to deeper, colder water. This is no statement on the cause as I don't care.

Jmho, no reason why amateurs shouldn't be allowed to do the same. Some would elect to post there and it would probably thin down the forums some. Especially amateurs that donate and or are subscribers. Otherwise you might as well to straight to the "amateurs must subscribe to read/post" to support the community. It would accomplish basically the same thing.