Clinch Leatherwood

You have a map for the rest of the region? Check out the WV. Can really see why the models struggled. That little spin down by the VA Capes ..really helped to initially disrupt the firehouse for just a couple of hours to the immediate NNE of it.

see below Yes but that's a given. It's not like it fit anywhere into the later capture ideas that are playing out for 2 days. I mean it was instantly tossed. This run is fine aside of the fact it is likely too slow to exit the low (IE the error/bias may still exist and this could still displace ENE at h 12 and h18 at which point it gets away from the best mechanism to make this a top 2 or 3 aka the RGEM etc. Probably not because it seems like once the lows actually bomb out models are okay. But I was speaking specifically of what it showed which was the blizzard everyone was anticipating. NYC folks shouldn't be jumping off anything yet....best snows may be right on that edge but holy crap it's a tight w to e near the city and if any shifts were to continue ...I think the chance the 12z Euro scored a coup are about zero though, it appears it just didn't see some of the pieces somehow that helped get everything a bit further NE before the turn. I mean...we're talking maybe 20 or 40 miles SW to NE....we're asking a lot to expect in this dynamic a situation any model will nail it. Some of the issue may be that the band about to rotate into NYC is super intense...and as someone was just joking where it stops - the people to the left of it will be swinging from the rafters in the AM and probably end up even below the conservative forecasts while people just to the east get what was forecast or even more.

I mean it's a region wide blizzard. NYC is on the fence, LI gets crushed, CT, MA, RI, Boston, PVD, Portsmouth. The SW edge is a toss up...but everywhere else it's stay the course...feet of snow.

What am I missing on the NAM being horrible?

take the 21h 12z Euro...shift it 25 or 40 miles NE. That uber banding ends up in CT and W/C MA. The evolution is fine, it's just too quick to bring it all together. Should bode well for some that were worried..and everyone else similar. The first death band is marching into CT no problems...you can see the pivot axis may be somewhere in SW CT now, versus SW of there as the Euro had. Not a huge change..and very positive potentially for CT, parts of WMA and CMA. That band is going to hit a wall in an hour or two..and just dump. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6 Last frame can really see the moisture beginning to load up south of the islands/block. Man is it going to pound over LI/CT/RI/SE Ma.

Take a look at 8h and 5h vs RAP analysis

Look at this guys: Look at two key features...a tight little spin just off the VA Capes...and the drying evident N and NNE east of it on a line towards Western LI. Also note the growing area of moisture SE of the Cape that is actually escaping a bit far...but beginning to show the tell tale signs it's about to get slung more NW (develop from the south and move up over). The east models kind of almost allow the lobe to the east to get further north. That's what it has done and notice the whacked out GFS was definitely further NW with the heavier QPF into MA/RI/CT this evening vs the Euro at the same panel. That was noted for days as a fault/too slow on the Euro. I really believe it's that feature...it helped to kick everything further NE as WXNISS noted more in line with the non-euro models. Really just parsing words for the same old same old...same thing for 4 runs now with the capture on the 12z not accounting for how much moisture already got north. Should bode well for some that were freaking over subsidence, or being on the north edge particularly north of Boston into NH and ME. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6

Yeah, none of this is bad for any of us particularly. I think the max jack the euro had near me was bogus, we will do best on the hopeful OES if the flow can stay aligned and it doesn't slip out/up too much. I think it's an overestimation of the blocking...50/50 etc. And it struggles to catch up. GFS on the other hand weakens that too quickly and always ends up a bit too far/way too far east. RGEM/CMC have been I thought the best with these big stalled lows lately, will see how they do tonight.

You tell me...do you see a trend from 3 full runs ago?

While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE. IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight. So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick. It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run. I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March. A developing bias to this new incarnation? I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z. Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south.

We'll agree to disagree on the Euro. Doesn't matter for most and for some I think it's actually better in the sense that we should see the full bore moisture train right into SNE. Can already see this is happening, some of these areas that were looking to get shorted by subsidence as bands setup further west...doubt that happens but who knows? I bet somewhere between Ginxy and tolland is anoter max jack zone.... as this whole thing begins to pivot and firehose in.

Looking at the "center to east" camp....in some manner they have the speedmax near the Delmarva. Euro was very shy with that feature. The models that are center to east leaning all use that to some degree to sling those features up on the east side (the northward movement along 70) at a more rapid pace vs the Euro. Indeed you'll see some of the models are already closing a contour in the next few hours out there while the Euro waits a bit to organize everything and as WPC has noted for days - is SLOWER with the north progression of the low which allows for a further west wrap with the eventual capture. A historic blizzard is on tap. For those in subsidence zones based on the 12z Euro I wouldn't sweat it as IMO that model was definitely too far S&W with the evolution - I think it's very obvious right now. I have no idea which model was most right and the reality of it is it doesn't matter for most. It may keep James all snow and pummel the Cape more...and there could be less on the fringes as has been the trend. But clearly you can see the thrust from about due SE of NYC...that point south is having a very hard time moving west which is now well behind the Euro maps. The axis is going to be right over/near or just NE of the City. NAM also appears to be well too far west, IMO.

see below This is killing me, I follow OES for 12 hours for 10 flakes, potential top 1 or 2 storms in my life and I cannot get away from work but: I agree with all your comments above. I'd kind of warned about that for a day or so - in previous cases where the Euro had issues with these types of systems it never caught up. IMO when it involves primarily a 50/50 and that low is weakening on the models absent a true blue -NAO....this is what happens. It just seems to want to wrap sooner than reality. My take and this differs from some pros....GFS and RGEM had a feel for what's going on near the Delmarva but not quite. Euro was mostly blind. Euro was too far west and too slow. We are seeing the wrap take place now but it's happening a bit further/later than the 12z Euro. This is exactly what you said above JC and exactly expected. Notice where the moisture is blossoming the most. Way out near 70...the battle is being won there and the next few hours will determine how much gets west. Very, very difficult forecast. If I were James I'd be doing the happy dance re no rain...jmho.

That's pretty much the Euro evolution. It's def east or north a smidge though which could also just be a delay. Also notice the storms over the Delmarva diving SSW. IMO and unless I'm missing something not well modeled by the Euro at all? Or any model.

Just looked as carefully as I care to at this point. The GFS and Euro deviate immediately in these next 3 or so hours. GFS starts to pivot, fails and lifts everything north never getting the precip back to the west. The Euro obviously is able to do that. My take? And I didn't look very carefully but the Euro is too far west. Probably not a ton, but it is I think. However, there's clearly back building and a pivot underway. I could be totally wrong but looks like maybe a 25 or 30 mile difference. GFS does seem to be totally cracked out unless we suddenly see this pivot release.

We really need to see those returns expand and start rotating NW and WNW over LI and east of NJ for me to think the super wet models are right to the west.

Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in. I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage. I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro. We're 40 minutes from verification - again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

I feel like I've been waiting on that band for 3 hours.

Nah you may be right I only looked quick plus I spilled about a gallon of gas all over myself trying to get generator filled. Probably seeing things!

When I look at the models quickly vs 21/22z....I think and this was a very fast glance...that the Euro was still too far west and probably too slow with the systems movement. The next hour is really critical as everything comes together, but I'd have liked to see that striated band of precip east of ACY actually right on the coast to confirm the Euro and some others western edge. JMHO.... looking at the radar the orientation of the developing bands etc - I mean at least right now they appear to be originating outward from a center that is a bit SE. Maybe it hooks up and in over the next few hours, don't know beats me.

I've been slammed all day just settling.. first impression based on water vapor is oh fu** here comes the 7 9 split.....there's a big dry punch opening up as this system winds up. Can see where the model battles have originated. This is going to get very interesting in the next 6 hours. I really don't think the east solutions can be entirely discarded yet... http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150126&endTime=-1&duration=6

Very happy I'm a hobbyist...clear convective issues still in terms of some max qpf bubbles. Great storm for everyone...who knows where the maxes end up! We seem to have settled into a position under the islands for a bit, vs those east earlier solutions.

Delayed capture not tick

Thanks. Winds right now would have me thinking CF is going to be an issue. I'll say this - we WILL chase the NE thing on the Euro even with the 0z model tonight. It doesn't stop..just a function of the model where it slowly adjusts.