Clinch Leatherwood

Was telling Ray my #1 worry is we chase this until the end with a later development. It's close on the 0z suite so far, but not that close thankfully. Run with the CMC all day long.

It's a pretty weak, just developing low at that point. It's most obvious on the color RGEM, it's not as simple as saying it's developing out under the convection...all of that moisture is further east/faster which actually traces back even to now. Note how much more moisture the 12z RGEM had say in GA at 6z tonight, new run is killing that off as we approach 6z and that's occurring. The system itself is a bit faster so it's not just about the convection. Phil882 said this earlier and I think he's right and it can already be analyzed in the 0z run at 4-5z. The reality of it is we're talking about a couple of hours, about 3 hours at say 20 mph forward speed of this system. I just think the low itself may form a little bit further ENE, JMHO. Old

just remember we seem to chase this right into the end. Probably good/better news up your way Portsmouth/SW ME etc

"folding"???? You're under probably one of the most intense bands of the storm tomorrow evening.

It's forming a little later, a little further ese than the 18z, rides up towards the Cape from a position a bit further ESE (36/39 vs 42/45 18z) it's most obvious. Same theme as the other two. But as a consequence of finally catching on, the capture occurs faster, and by 42-54 it's much further SW on the stall than earlier runs (not the same but in the area of the others now) and it's a much bigger hit in Eastern New England. If anything all three models in argue for a much more severe hit in eastern New England. I'm not excluding the other areas, just not commenting as it's not my area. 0z GFS just pounds everything from Worcester east.

Two points wxsniss as I know you understand I've got no motives behind what I'm saying. I really believe the lean here was convective feedback was the reason the euro was right and the growing consensus of the others wrong. May still be the case, but for the reasons I outlined above I'd actually think if the experts were so sure feedback was involved in this particular case DUE to the capture and hook, it would discount the western most solutions to some extent. I'm not sure this lobe of vorticity is invalid. I think we're just seeing a slightly delayed capture because the initial impulse (as Phil and an AFD mentioned earlier) is running a wee bit fast. So as a result instead of this thing spinning up from 70 or 71, it's more like 69 or 69.5. GFS/RGEM/NAM are all in very solid general agreement. Wxniss, lastly...it's unlikely this bobble is done.

It's not west, it's east. It's also coming up along/east of the 70. For the same reasons as the NAM/RGEM.

JM just so you know...my intrique and hope on this 69.5 N course...it pinches the warm air. If it runs that course and is stronger it could still toss a lot of moisture back further west and the bands always seem to get further west/nw than modeled. It's the trajectory of how it gets up here that I have the most interest in.

Phil882 is a huge asset, I see his stuff sometimes when I take a look at the other forums. Exactly - we're talking 4-6 hours faster net...but with the forward speed of system that pushes it almost east of the 70w line before it can get rammed north. Could all of this be error based like Forky is implying? Absolutely. Watch the GFS come in west and everyone will love it over the other two...lol

I need to go roofie myself to calm down...not sure why I'm so amped up it's still 24 hours away ...maybe about to drop dead? I want to make one point to you John (Typhoon). I was a convective feedback junkie in the olds days before they largely stomped out those issues with model fixes. In the last few years it seems like it's tossed out there whenever we see things we cannot quite explain or have a model outlier that we really want to believe is correct because of common sense, overall model reliability (Euro) etc. But wouldn't convective feedback actually cause the lows to be artificially too far west in this case? The models that were initially the most west fired convection rapidly right on the coast and actually started to develop a closed low above it all the way up to phantom vorticies at 500mb. As a result progression was SLOWER...allowing for a further west capture, then the tuck and roll. Every time I heard the convective feedback stuff today the implication was it would mean the storm should be more west...I'd argue if convective feedback was involved it would have caused an earlier spinnup, faster drop of pressure, an earlier capture/close and subsequently have everything too far west. ^^ Beyond that like I said was down this road when we had similar splits in model camps late last year. That was my conclusion and I even think Will's after the fact, but I don't remember dates like he does. We're talking about 4-6 hours difference with that initial NNE to SSW band of showers/storms getting further ENE before the low develops under/near it. Earlier runs had that spinning up harder, earlier... Those couple of things and the RGEM running the other way when it's usually the model that has me ready to hit a bridge at this point... Again may be totally wrong and it doesn't matter to 90% of the people here, just wanted to point out why I'm so adamant...even if wrong!

U love the RGEM, I'm surprised you're not more amped on it's 18z and 0z runs. It's a good model, and if anything is prone to being too excitable on these big coastals.

More or less I think it's just delayed consolidation. I know many will claim feedback and I may be entirely wrong, but I think it's more a case of the pieces taking an additional 6 or so hours to come together before the hook and capture takes place. This isn't a single run figment, I think the hints/or actual movements have been there on many models all day (aside of the Euro). If it is scoring a coup on this one and holds firm through 12z, I've been totally wrong and am biasing my opinion by getting boned by the Euro a couple of times at the end of last winter on the SW side of similar evolutions.

Here's the rub and again - speaking from 2 experiences at the end of last season...the models never did quite catch the wiggle NE until the very end but by now the CMC/UK and by dumb luck the GFS had a very good idea while the Euro was still gunslinging. I do worry about a continued bobble of 25 miles ENE/NE on the stall each run because eventually it'd get even ahead of me here and I'd be watching spiral bands out over the water.

I will run with this vs the Euro from 12z all day long. Or close to it.

One for the record books.

Was saying to Ray none of you remember two late season dogs from the Euro. I believe we may even have had Blizzard warnings here..Euro led the way capturing a low in time and croaking us. UK and CMC were east east...hard scrape to light miss. Euro didn't give it up until it was already done aside of the tears. That was post "change" so I'm snake bitten. Most of you don't remember the events because it was always an event about three of us cared about. The CMC clobbered in both systems handling the eventual dumbbell type track best, and the 10mm or less precip. CMC is now coming up actually a hair east of the BM.

FWIW, 0z RGEM is definitely coming in east of the 12z. I think the later development/capture has legs. JMHO

Just realize particularly when you read something from me I'm speaking of how it pertains to me. ALL models are pinching off the warmth for the most part...I think that continues as the low gets further east before it turns north in a capture. The NAM being the NAM it can never be taken verbatim, the bigger concern to me would be the 18z RGEM which everyone wants to ignore. That model is always the most amped, and it just isn't this time (in terms of the left inside hook). If it suddenly hops back that way in the next 30 minutes than the NAM is a doormat and I'm wrong...but it doesn't matter for 90% anyway.

It's not really about a bump east...it's about a delayed initiation and capture so the track is more S to N up along 70 vs coming at the BM from the west/sw. That has big implications for a lot of reasons I95 east and from mid cape west. It's moot anyway, it's all opinion and we don't change the weather with our opinions. I just don't think the Euro is as infallible as it once was but that is just IMO and I may be using a big bust at the end of last winter as a foundation point that is an error. I just know the RGEM IS ALWAYS the model that makes me grimace with these storms as the r/s line goes over my head first with it...it's always the most jacked, the furthest NW often even more on the hook than the EUro and it's just not this time and that's a red flag to me absent other models supporting the euro.

Euro is no longer infallible. I'm trying to find the stall whiff from last March. The 0z NAM is by no means alone. The normally steroidal RGEM is very similar. This is from 18z. Mods why am I getting an error 301 with 100mb of free space on the darned attachments? http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg ^^^ that is not very different than the 0z NAM and is marked departure from earlier RGEM runs.

I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had. Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter. It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW. Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that. I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west. It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero.

I will lay down a round at the next GTG (after February) if it doesn't cave on this run....finally.

Meh - I will disagree. It's not much different than the RGEM which came at 40/70 from the SOUTH this last run. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif

Correct me if I'm wrong on two fronts John as I know you pay attention to these things: 1. The RGEM is often the most NW/tucked model in these situations. 2. The 18z RGEM and the 0z NAM are very similar. Later tuck and roll. I believe although the NAM is obviously going to miss details and no model will be spot on, the trend will continue tonight for a later initial capture. Whether it's convective feedback or just a true blue bias this last 18 months, seems to happen with every capture.

Just remember - there's a good chance we will still chase this thing east a smidge each run. Let's see if the NAM is into the good drugs (I think it is somewhat because the 18z RGEM was east and I really think the RGEM is OFTEN THE ONE that signals the left hooks the most...sometimes far too much..with the Euro). If the RGEM slams back west this run then great, but if it runs like the 18z or east that's a gigantic red flag to me that the OP Euro is too far west. Again JMHO. This is the big one for Taunton, Jerry, Kevin, Steve, RI Peeps, Will somehow will get 3-4' under a death band, mini-scooter better get is sleep because he's about to be used as a human yardstick for photo ops...it's just great stuff.