Clinch Leatherwood

Will/Scott etc? Gut feeling do I change over or taint?

Thanks so much guys...I've got to go get some shi* done....I was hedging on taking the generator out of the box. Time to get the gas, and to get it ready. WTF! Scott - I don't know....this may be worse than 2005 if we can hang onto snow. Those OES bands at the end last longer.

I picked the wrong day to be this busy. Biggest storm maybe in my life and I'm in a concrete jungle. How much?

Will you know I never ask specifics...how does it look here I don't have access on this machine? All snow? Totals? Dry slot? So this delayed capture bias...it's a real deal with the Euro and one I bet we chase all winter.

That's "great" news...will truly make this one for the record books.

I haven't looked in a few hours, but it looked to me like this was west of the eastern guidance at 8am. What's the consensus now? Where did the NAM/UK/GFS go? east? Same?

CF will be west of me at least for awhile, my winds are already all wrong. How did the models trends I haven't had a moment to look?

And we were talking futility on the season.I think 10-15" here will do the trick. Can adjust later. We always seem to dry slot faster than progged

I don't think guys much younger than me doodled...probably used some type of tech devices!We will see how this goes. Convection closer to coast off NC than some of the models right now. I had nightmares about taint last night

HpC still feels there's some adjusting to do. I think ultimately the euro will stall the low east of where it progged tonight. COMBO. BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF APPEARS BEST AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF DID ADJUST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE NAM/SREF/EC MEAN COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED AS BOTH THE 00Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR EITHER UNSUPPORTED IN POSITION OR STRENGT

Just look at how much the euro ex bell totals have moved from what people have posted here. The 12z 24 had 36" into snj.I doubt the models are done coming together for most it doesn't matter much tougher for you

Need the convection to fire around dawn. Then there will be something to track provided any of the NOAA buoys are still working. Euro tuck still seems extreme to me but there's just no way to know yet

The reality of the situation is for most of the people in the sub forum it's all noise. It really just doesn't matter. The fringes..down here with temps, way west/sw with QPF, northwest too...it does some...but noise mostly. 24-36 out it's pretty much unanimous consensus given the situation for the most likely impacted areas. Good enough for me until morning. The 12z RUN is the one that counts. By then the convection is fired off the coast and that seems to be when all these erratic little vortiicies get killed off in the models. IE< once they actually have the initial conditions. So....even more decisiveness is near.

All in all great runs. But...unlikely we're done seeing the bobble NE...DT is right about the 50/50 and overall just seems to be the way these things have gone with the models the last 12+ months. Great stuff, great days ahead for all. night.

What's nice about that position is it still provides some wiggle room in the leadup for almost the entire subforum. It's still on the western side of the guidance, it looks similar to me to the RGEM?

was evident I thought at init. It's still going to sweep up nicely as it's captured.

Can see it already. I was surprised the diagnostic mentions and then discards the 12z Euro drawing the low north slower based on the newer models and E ensembles.

I just don't want the stall to sneak east of same Race Point. That blows for all of us in SNE. Let's keep it just SE of the Cape. Euro is rolling...and...

Fixed that for you. There's a lot of time left, and if history is a guide we will chase the details on the stall point right into the end.

And with that explanation DT drops the bat at home plate and trots around the bases because IMO he pretty much nailed what's going on.

Why are any of us staying up? What's the Euro going to show that's going to be any better than every other model? I need a new hobby! I just realized I don't have a shovel. When's Morch? I refuse to own a snowblower or riding mower. I may really, really regret that stand in 48 hours.

I'm puzzled by the lower totals for the Cape - at this stage. There's no indication in any model other than the old Euro that there will be anything must mostly snow for about 50/70% of the Cape. Indeed it looks like a 15-25" type deal even here.

Cherry picking the key points from the diagnostic they found no issues with the NAM/GFS init. I thought I'd read the EC ENS were in total agreement with the OP, sounds like that wasn't exactly the case. BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. THEREFORE REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED.

UKIE is terrific posted it on the banter thread by mistake. NOGAPs is now west too, so essentially total consensus with this thing running up 70

Extremely well said - when/if the Euro does bump east the cumulative changes inside of really 30 or so hours for those to the SW will have been large. Being as we're still kind of near that window - there's still room for some meaningful changes. GEFS out yet?