Scraff

Can everyone hold back on weather talk for a sec. I’m busy working. It’s a rough life, but someone gotta do it!

So what you’re saying is we are totally ducked?

Just got my Bauers sharpened up today. Can’t wait for my neighbors to see me out there skating around our parking lot and taking slap shots off their windshields.

Beautiful morning out there. Still coming down lightly right now. Eyeballing 3-4.

Good morning! I think we got it in us. Hell. Could be sooner rather than later! The Tuesday threat could potentially be trending the way. Fingers crossed...

I got a vaccine to go get stabbed with tomorrow, so I’m out. It’s definitely a great night here in HoCo though. Perfect pummeling in process. Really beautiful to see. After the debacle this past weekend, I feel like I was owed something. Haha. Good night to my favorite weather peeps in the world. Yes. Even JI.

The long hard suffering is over. Sort of feels like when the Caps finally won it. LOLz.

Well I can vouch. Currently getting a beat down! eta: best snow rates / white asteroids I’ve seen so far this year.

Just started ripping hard on the sledding slopes! My daughter already carving.it up.

Nice fatties! Heavy with a lot of hell yes!! Just about an inch on the deck. Everything caving. Getting close to Jebwalk and beer time...

Been feeling for the last day or two that we (the HoCo crew) might finally be in one of the better spots for this one. Bout time right!?

Looks great, but books out fast. We need to slow that bad boy down.

I just averaged MBY and it came to 6.66 Uh huh.

Why the hell would DT hit the submit button on that post before the 12z Euro came out?

Euro drops a load in bed. WTF. I guess this winter we are literally trying to find out how many possible losing scenarios we can pull off. Sounds like a few of my favorite sports teams too.

I don’t believe DC will dig that run (see what I did there). And what’s that saying again? Got to flirt with the danger line (er something) to get the sweet spot?@stormtracker

GFS definitely looks tasty so far...

The good ol US of frickin A for the win! eta: for MBY in HoCo anyway.

Maybe the NAM is struggling to figure out this type of set up? Seems quite different than previous storms. I’m not worried unless the big boys (or girls) roll that way throughout today.

That leads me to believe it’s nothing but a fresh powder dump.

Sign me up. I’ve never been to Europe. Really want to go one day if only for the reason that those folks know how to predict weather....and drink. ETA: Go Euro Go!

Cincinnati it is. Lol.

Who can help me shovel out!?

Larry Cosgrove = Pants Tent “There is no fighting the notion that most of the lower 48 states are going to get swept up by the Arctic regime now descending from Canada. But there are questions about storm potential, especially regarding track and type of precipitation. Let me remind you that all of the numerical models show at least one massive disturbance passing out of the southern Rocky Mountains in the 6 - 10 day range. The ECMWF scheme is reluctant to allow the intense cold to reach the southern and eastern tier of the nation, which the GFS series is more aggressive and brings the forward edge of the cAk readings all the way into the Interstate 10 and 95 corridors. In effect, only California and Florida dodge the proverbial bullet. It has been my experience that the American scheme handles cold advection much better than its European counterpart, particularly when a true Arctic air mass is involved. It is a judgment call, but the regime over North America is arguably the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere and will continue with that dubious title for the rest of the calendar winter. This is important because the path of storms in the medium range will likely be suppressed into the northern Gulf of Mexico and then up or off of the eastern Seaboard. I can see a scenario where the southern rim of the U.S. has a rain ending as an ice event, while snow deepens from the Great Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. Much of this is up for grabs, mind you, but the emergence of renewed blocking in Greenland, agreed upon by all of the computer models, will favor a lower latitude trajectory of impulses in the Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams. And the most obvious candidate is the broad cyclonic circulation below the Aleutian Islands I note that most of the ensemble packages show yet another shortwave from the northern Pacific Basin getting caught up in the deviated jet stream configuration, with another deepening storm in the Southwest seven days from now. We have to watch this feature carefully! I can see a track scenario taking shape where the system drops into northern Mexico, then moves along the Gulf Coast,m and then close to and likely just to the right of the Eastern Seaboard. around February 14 - 17. This is the type of set-up that -could- produce a true monster winter weather event, with the Arctic motherlode being pushed into the Great Lakes region and phasing with the low pressure area. The vast expanse of cold is worrisome since actions like overrunning and cold instability will interact, with a wider coverage of precipitation types than is normal”

Yep. I see that. Game over. We tried. Lol