Syrmax

6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

My wife is from NE Connecticut. Looks like they could get a foot and a half along with strong winds. 

NE CT should do quite well.  I'll have to monitor next couple of days of model runs to see if a weekend trip is worthwhile. Might be the only decent snowstorm I see this winter. Saturday morning soccer and snowstorm that I could roll into a Sunday NFL day down there as my covid quarantine ends tomorrow.  

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS with a 3 footer for Boston

Classic setup for them, slp over the BM or a smidge outside it.  I have friends in SE CT so a chase visit is tempting as that area looks to be 16-18" on that GFS map.  But, local knowledge, SECT near the coast is a notorious screw hole for max snows. Could see them getting a foot but not chase worthy.  Maybe.

Almost time for the 12Z Global runs of disappointment!

Snow was pretty good for a bit, lightening up now.  We'll see if this band can stay on life support for a while longer...

The snowband has arrived! Time for our daily T to 1.5" of snow.  Looks like it's about to fall off the lake and die? Or can Humpty Dumpty be put back together again with all the Kings Horses and men?

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

We’ll I’m into it right now. As long as I can get a couple of hours of decent rates maybe I can add an inch or two to my totals. 

We sucking fumes here. A few rogue flakes and a dark cloud mocking me.

22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

From BGM for this upcoming weekend (continuation of too much cold and dry):

Behind the departing upper low and on the back side another
Arctic blast of air will be felt across most of the Northeast
Saturday and Sunday. This incoming cold air will likely trigger
another round of lake effect snow. It is still uncertain how
much snow at this point given that the air mass may be too cold
for significant accumulation, but will likely be a continuous
light snow/flurry event into Monday morning. Temperatures this
weekend will range from the teens and lower 20s during the day,
to single digits overnight.

Of course it'll be too cold.  It usually is, except when it's too warm, even if only a 5 centimeter thick sliver of a layer somewhere up top.

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't mind Romo. He literally predicts every play before it happens, hes pretty good.

Ill give you he's not as bad as Matt Millen, who also played the game, destroyed a franchise as GM (Lions) and was wrong about 75%:of what he said doing color in games.  Romo's not THAT bad. And i do prefer him over Collinsworth, who has grown to be  Master of the obvious, trite phrase repeating boor.

56 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Romo is one of the best if not the best announcer in football and that seems to be the general consensus among well….damn near everyone. Shocked you don’t like him.  

You've got to be kidding me. Plenty of ppl think he's over the top. He's not commentating WWE FFS. The guy never shuts up and is all over the place. Let the game breathe.

1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

@TugHillMatt Local news 3 has 3-5" of new snow for northern Onondaga today

Guess what, NWS has <1" today, tonight and for the foreseeable future....

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM gives Oswego 10"

Easier road trip for me than Eastern New England.

Not sure if anyone listens to Mad Dog Russo on Sirius Ch. 82 but his show today was legendary recapping the weekend NFL games.  The best part was him tearing apart post game shows (none of  Rodgers 17 minute interview on NFL Network, just stupid replays and chit chat) and... destroying Tony Romo in an all time rant at 1:45 mins into the recorded version. OMGLOFL. So right. Romo got the squib call spot on but FFS shut the f*ck up otherwise. With 2 minutes left in the game at 11 pm at night in an all time classic... Romo is blithering about Josh Allen's legacy not once or twice but three times!   And the scribbling on the telescreen...just stop.  I thought that was idiotic also at the time. Allen is 24 years old, FFS. Romo is so godawful. 

GFS & CMC going outside the 40/70 BM. Cya. Congrats Cape Cod and Mainiacs!

21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This is so unlike you, Tim. Positive Tim would predict Nantucket gets a 4 foot blizzard followed up with Ocean Effect Snow that piles on another 2 feet!

Tim might be a bit salty after the Bills disaster.

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Adams Center, NY jackpots with 4 to 6 inches. Winning.

That's the Adams Center Wooden Tooth & Head Shop Country Store parking lot, to be precise.

1 minute ago, WaistDeepSnow said:

Turkey gets lake effect snow from the Black Sea.  An airmass originating from Siberia is a likely cause.  

My friend in Holland says they've had perpetual Spring there so far this winter.  (Spring is not particularly warm there).  And i've noticed a quasi-permanent HP parked west of the British Isles for weeks now.  It's too far east for a Greenland Block but that's where it has set up this month.

41 minutes ago, Sub_Zero said:

A little off topic, but check out Istanbul today, nearly 18” 

 

 

I saw the GFS was forecasting a big snow in a lot of Turkey the other day bit thought it was BS. Wow.

About an inch here by eyeball...

26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

guys, the 18z ggem on that site does not go out past 48hrs. You're looking at 12z data once past 48hrs

Thanks. Didn't notice or anticipate that bit ****ery.

20 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Cold is here to stay in next 2 weeks and no end in sight. Feb 2015 repeat? 

Soon blowtorch come.

57 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

GFS and CMC couldn't be any further apart lol

Yeah, one of them is very wrong. I expect we see them do some correction next model cycles. 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS 18z was a piece of shit. Lol

17z GFS much shallower h500 vorticity lobe than 12Z so system doesn't get going until way too late. 

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

18Z CMC is a best case for ENY and CNY. The slp more or less stalls over or just south of LI/SNE, maybe a bit of a cyclonic loop indicated from about 108-120 hrs as cyclone rapidly deepens.  There is a HP to the north, 1032 mb initially near James Bay and it doesn't exactly run away, slides a bit ENE towards NWF and actually strengthens a few mb by end of 120hrs.  Dunno if it's right and didn't look at upper levels. The H500 energy is probably synced up better on this CMC run than other model runs, pulling the slp closer to coast.

No idea if it's correct of course.

Highly recommend this book for weenies interested in synoptic of EC storms. There is a Vol.II also that has extensive nomographs of many storms.  Always like to break it out in winter.

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc this morning did place a low chance for 4"+ in and around buffalo..They also had a small area of moderate tomorrow, looks like Hannibal/Fulton area..

 

I needed a magnifying glass to see that. What is that showing, the Tops parking lot in Fulton?

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

HRRR (regardless of its accuracy) gives the North Syracuse  zone some love. BUF seemed hesitant, probably since the Rgem didn't come through at 12Z.

That would be sweet. I'm pulling for a couple of middling snow events in the next week so that we reach average for the month and I can refute your claims of a junky winter with #TheScience.

20 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Question is why it shifted west already (guessing something over the pacific?) and if there's room for more based on the upper levels.

Well, the AO is + and there's not a lot not blocking shown in the right spot so I'd think there's room for this to track furher west if the upstream energies sync up well.  I could see this staying well offshore also. We should have a clearer picture (?) over the next 00Z and 12z runs.