Syrmax

This is beastly...

CMC still a whiff for most of this forum but New England and LI still hit.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few pics from the neighborhood. Impressive depths this January. My backyard shed is getting buried. 

Nice fence!

11 minutes ago, sferic said:

Cancel Granny Clampett trip

Hang on...don't kick Granny off the car roof yet...CMC says not so fast...

00Z GFS....LOL. Congrats Nantucket. Thing rapidly deepening and slides outside the 40/70 BM.  Chase cancel! 

We might not even see high cirrus in CNY...maybe on eastern horizon. Wow.

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

This what you have in mind?

I make a good Granny Clampett.

Just measured...3.5"...since afternoon. Not bad, maybe a "Top 5" event for me this winter.

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Heavy helping of Cirrus is in store for all or most of the forum unless we get some big changes and soon.

BGM is probably the furthest west I think for something like 2-4" unless this ends up getting tucked in somehow and crashing into LI/CT. No modeling has shown that for over a week, I think.

Well, we may be having a lousy synootic winter but at least the climatoligically coldest part of winter and the lake has kept this place snowy. Living in the southern snowbelts I'd usually have taken this over that all the time.

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Good writeup from Albany

Interesting about ridge building downstream of cyclone development being a model issue. Some good thermodynamic principles being cited there. KALY used to have some really good AFDs back when I read them more often while living there. 

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

As soon as it started moving south, it started fizzling quickly.

Perhaps I'll get a few good cells to train over my locale. 

Not gonna lie, it's #poundtown here attm. Intensity a but sporadic but looking good overall. Band seems roughly stationary.

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro pretty close to 12z... maybe little W, but precip not quite as expansive if you want to nitpick.

Such a shame. We've seen similar h500 looks that ended up well for us. Just missing some other things...

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

Riding right along the southern edge of this band. I’m in and out of some heavy snow showers. This one that’s about to hit should be interesting. 

If i read that radar map right I'm virtually due west of you. Maybe a touch south of due west.

Snowing pretty hard.

Just now, BGM Blizzard said:

No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z.

 

18Z GFS would give pause to thoughts of chasing this as maybe the BOS-PVD & CC corridor gets smoked, other than SE VA.  But, it's an 18Z run....

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band has been consistent all day, any decent totals in it? Is that south of wolf and north of all the Syracuse guys?

Pretty much.  Bring on Spring!

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north.

Curious but true...there is no real Greenland blocking if you look at the wider NoAm panels but there is HP relatively anchored in Quebec.  There's also not a trailing piece of upper level energy like the last system, so the timing is off, it maimtains a poitive tilt UL trough too long and it stays pretty far offshore at our latitude.

19 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

I dunno. This seems rather “absolute” this far out but they are the pros!

Only thing that disco is missing is reference to the 3 day blowtorch and purifying rains that await, about 7, 8 days out.

24 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Long range NAM at 18z. 
 

Long way to go…

No way I'm even remotely thinking the NAM has any clue yet.

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse  zone.

I'm trying to figure out the best place to chase the storm to maximize snowfall and ready access to decent watering holes without spending too much if my CT friends are unavailable.  Lots of options on the table...other than CNY...

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Look, @Syrmaxit's our next 1 to 3 inch event!

I envision KSYzzle having clear skies, light winds and temps simmering in the upper 30s, melting away our fake snow during this event! 

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island.

 

Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills

 

In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here

Gotta go to the snowbelts if you want the big snows!

14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...really, it's time for Syracuse down to Binghamton and over to Albany down to NYC to get clobbered. It's been way too long. We will probably be sniffing flurries yet again up here. Odds of you getting effects are much higher, obviously.

This storm's gone for CNY. ENY has a shot at 6+.  We will have to be content with our daily dose of 'eat your peas' T-2" snowfalls for the foreseeable future (except for the obligatory 3, 4 day torch that melts it all).

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

I do feel like te pattern flip will stick starting next week, and we will be dealing with above normal temps for at least 2 weeks, and then looking at March with not much to show for in 

12Z Euro very juicy for NYC forum as well as obv NE.  I think I'm gonna chase this but not sure where yet.  Euro pounds Litchfield County in CT, which is a nice area and 90 mins less than SE CT for a drive. Boston another possibility. One of my friends is already assigned to work storm duty Sat night so that option looks iffy. 

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Lake effect snow off Ontario is becoming more cellular with scattered squalls and sunshine (creating additional instability) in between. About to get a heavy burst here. We'll see if the band reforms.

Increasing sun angle!  

Snowing heavy here attm.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only worth chasing if 2-3 feet+ and strong winds.

Usually agree but the other activities could tip the balance. I won't go if only a foot is likely.