weathercoins

Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this.

Don't think I've ever seen output like that for a storm 18 hours out from a major model. Insane for NJ North.

We sure the NAM initialized correctly? Lol at 50.8 inches over LI, quite the deformation here

If this thing jogs east, NYC thread is going to be a sad, sad place

Euro initialized, here we go

Really want to wait up for the Euro. Really should sleep. Law school semester starts again tomorrow, and tomorrow night is not going to be a sleep night.

Don't understand how this is west at all, looks slightly east and maybe even slightly more amped, going to be a good run here

Anyone have the discussion post-storm 1 when LWX realized another one was on the way?

Look like NW suburbs of DC will see this first if radar echoes hold in the same pattern... here she comes . I love seeing how even the preliminary edge of this precip has a few ~40 dbzs mixed in there...

So do we have any time frames for the heavy stuff? It seems that the spread, at least by the TV mets, is from early afternoon to "after nightfall". Personally I'm thinking a few hours before sunset in the DC area. Thoughts?

According to this... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

it looks like maybe <5mm of liquid before changeover. Then 6-8hrs of crazy heavy snow. Verbatim with 10:1 ratios, this shows a band of 2-3"/hour snows.

Do you think 10:1 is realistic though? Or will it start as like 7:1 or 8:1 then become higher as it gets colder (but probably not as heavy precip then)...?

I'm really not sure what to think. Pretty much all the models look great- both on temp when precip falls and on the precip itself. The setup is mostly there with a few exceptions....

But LWX hasn't put me under a watch yet!!!

(just kidding)

QPF totals must be over an inch for the DC area west.

... Here comes the temp crash.

Interesting the big cities weren't included. I bet 3 pm will change that.

Could someone please give me the scenario for ric?

You seem to get crushed pretty hard.... Especially at hours 36 or so?

For everyone concerned about the WSW possibilities, this run should put us over the top, at least for a watch by 3 PM...

Weather Channel has all rain for me in DC...

Weather channel is generally 12-18 hours behind any forecast updates... I remember as a kid some massive storms coming but in the last 36 hours trended away from us or turned too warm... so I would turn to the Weather Channel to see an outdated forecast and give me hope.

Please do not point the poster towards the weather channel. That's just silly.

Hahaha lame attempt at a joke

Got some flurries here in college park

Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol

Not worried about 6z NAM. Sort of disappointed by LWX's forecast that was based on "striking consistency in the models"...

I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario.

I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we

should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago.

I love how 3-6 is like cautious at this point lol... Wow how things have changed.

Another consideration with this wet snow is the ratios. 10-1 would be a pipedream, even 8-1 too high. What you would likely see is heavy, wet large conglomerated flakes that melt early on then accumulate and compact into a wet, moisture laden snow. 6-1 would probably be a realistic snow ratio. 5-7" would be a high end threat even with the crazy NAM, 2-4/3-5" is a realistic threat as is verbatim.

Very true. For those of us wondering about missing school/work (I have a serious case of jet lag I can't overcome with my schedule, and UMD started today...), wet snow is wonderful though for closing things .

It's going to precip. Way better than the past storms, when we weren't even sure of that one.