weathercoins

Do we have a prediction thread yet?

Mapping out the total (post-storm) is really going to be such a disaster with the wind and inconsistent reports. Definitely going to see some OMG FOUR FEEEEEET reports next to 18 inch ones. 

there really are going to be some insane numbers being reported 

 

Every single model run:

 

• Mixing
• Ratios
• Throw climo out the window
• Why isn't anyone talking about wind?
• HOW MUCH IN [tiny hamlet]

 

Be thankful you don't need to add sun angle to that list...

Capital Weather about to go more aggressive after the GFS. 

Won't need to worry much about mixing if EURO verifies, even along I-95...

EURO is looking kind of like the NAM did...

A list of airlines allowing free changes and delays for those traveling to, from, or through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast:

Pretty much all major airports from VA to BOS, 1/22-1/24: 

United

Southwest

Virgin

Alaska

Delta

Air Canada

American (1/21 to 1/24)

JetBlue (1/22 and 1/23 for Mid-Atlantic; 1/23 ONLY for New England)

Spirit (1/22 and 1/23)

Frontier is the only major (top 10 or so) airline without a policy out for this.

Tony Pann reports that RPM shows much more mixing for Baltimore on Saturday. I just don't get him

Just WHY does WBAL use the RPM year after year? I legitimately don't understand it, because it's a laughably bad model even 48 hours out. 

Your girlfriends are probably thinking the same thing . Welcome home.

Have fun. Where are you staying?

Family in Pikesville. Considering a trip west to friends by Fairfax, but honestly seems like Pikesville will be just fine, haha

Just landed at BWI, waiting for gate to open. This should be a fun weekend. So glad I'm not sticking around Boston and enjoying an inch or two.

How does the timing/duration of the storm in Baltimore differ from DC (if it does...)?

Baltimore/Pikesville usually an hour later or so. Obv banding could make big difference, but at least overall...

what is the current start time around bwi? Is a 730pm landing on Friday too late?

Yeah, I wouldn't risk that.

I just really want to get into a debate about sun angle

The "daily forecasts" thing on these sites is stupid. It's singular model-based and never accurate. I know so many people who add together each period for the "total forecast" which just doesn't work. NWS products/advisories are the only way to go. 

Highest snow totals are going to push slightly further north this run I think

TerpWeather tweeted this - fascinating stuff (before today). 

Lol at Accuweather/USAToday still having Baltimore in the 6-12" range. Just lol. 

Feb 2010 issued during the storm.

That was a warning though. I don't think LWX ever has issued a blizzard watch.

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-
202315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.

&&

$

Guesses as to whether the federal government opens up AT ALL next week?

School districts I think the answer is pretty clear.

EDIT: personal Q is whether my Monday AM flight gets off.

1772 we're coming for you  

EURO started weird but looking like a HECS/BECS. It's on folks

Blizzard watch by tomorrow afternoon or Thurs AM?

Euro way slower, won't be in DC til friday late afternoon, going to dump some HECS amounts post 72/84

Euro is slower, going to be at least a bit south