weathercoins

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking.  I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance.  Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount.  I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance.  

My thinking here:

1. Who posted this ridiculous call?

2. Wait, it's PSUHoffman?  What the hell happened since I checked 30 minutes ago? 

3. :::reads the key:::

4. Back to doomcasting the NAM

One of the extremely rare occasions when I'm not sure whether to stay in downtown DC or head up to Baltimore County.

(The answer is probably Baltimore County, but I like to imagine the snowhole won't happen, just once)

Went out to Frederick for the storm because a downtown DC-classic-rain mix sounded too depressing.  Snow picking up in intensity, probably moderate now, sticking everywhere.  We're at 550', it's 27.7 here.

Sorry if this happened a while ago, but I was pretty surprised to see that the government is already closed for tomorrow.

BWI: 4.4”

DCA: 3.1”

IAD: 3.7”

RIC: 0.9"

Tiebreaker: 1.31'"

GFS getting pretty moderate snow into DC a bit earlier this run 

Icon is early enough for a fun morning in DC 

Let’s just lock in the FV3 solution exactly as “modeled” and call it a day 

Moderate snow in downtown DC (foggy bottom). Changed over in last 5 minutes.

Tony Pann's take 

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

I'd have to think about a jacket.....

Girlfriend is in Madison for the winter.  Honestly considered going over there for the cold snap, don't know when I'll ever experience something like that.

We’re back in business

22 minutes ago, shoshanaz said:

>1.25" accumulation (measured about 10 pm), 27F and snowing at a good rate.  Just inside the Baltimore city line near Greenspring Ave. 

Lol my parents and siblings live within a block of here. Always can tell what’s city and county based on how cleaned up the roads are after snow  

I have a tendency to randomly miss out on the best snows of the season because of previously planned travel. Rough streak. 

Anyway I’m traveling to San Francisco Jan. 10-15, booked in October and thought “watch I’ll miss the best DC storm of the year.” Enjoy, lol 

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Just saw a random flurry or two.  9 days of tracking worth it!

The reason I need to see something is all this tracking 

Going to be a high hour tracking per flake  seen ratio 

Hey on radar it looks like a couple flurries might have reached the tip of SE DC. We did it!!!

Not that it wasn’t expected, but still pretty in awe of this cutoff. Can jump in a car and drive ten fifteen minutes to see flurries, twenty minutes to see a coating, thirty minutes and see an inch of two (and within a bit more a nice snowstorm). 

I have a buddy in Charlottesville I've been meaning to visit... today seems like a good day 

Lol https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1071515068372840450

1 minute ago, (So)Alexandria said:

Can confirm some pinging downtown DC.  Why do I get the feeling we could be in for a another commutagetton, at least for the north and west bound folks? 

^^ Yep.

Sleet has begun in downtown DC [Foggy Bottom area].  Based entirely on the obvious pinging off my 9th floor window, though.

EDIT: Also based on being able to see the sleet bounce off the window now, too.

Downtown DC should get into a little temporary sleet action in 40 mins or so...

It's silly, but LWX's snowfall maps were updated and show a 58% chance of 6"+ in DC proper now.

Obviously still some issues, though, as the 2"+ range is higher regionwide than the 1"+ range 

2 minutes ago, Kristymac03 said:

When I lived in Ohio for a bit they had levels and after a certain level you weren't aloud out to drive... was not sure if anything happens like that here. 

They have states of emergency, but not tied to the WSW.

Had a few sleet-flakes mixed in on my walk to work in downtown DC.  Very much all rain now.