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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    Problem is both AI models have been slowly trending to a non event.. After both showing a moderate hit yesterday.. Another few ticks and they will look like the 6z gfs .. Really would like to see GFS make a good move towards EURO multiple runs in a row
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    Bumped north but its more like the 18z gfs from yesterday ..
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    I'd say 1/3 of the GEFS members keep us below freezing on Christmas ..
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    All I was looking for was for it to not be flat.. Big hit for recent times here would be 6"+ for many in CT verbatim.. The red flag was if it was not amped , so we are good, that's all we can use the NAM for. If the AMP happy NAM can't show a hit then we were in trouble IMO..
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    It's a good hit, but it's the nam after 6 hours so we take with a grain of salt, but just feel good that it wasn't gfs like ..
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    If NAM isn’t super amped at 12z it’s a flag IMO
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    I like 2-5” for ct as of now as a ceiling, hoping we start locking in and mid levels produce some good growth and fluff. But we really can’t afford a gfs euro compromise if so it’s a coating to 2” type deal.
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    Idk about several hundred miles lol we are talking about snow in New England not Hudson Bay
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    Talk to us when it shows it at 12z
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    GFS is the steadiest with this one. Can’t trust those damn off hour runs especially Euro it’s done this way too many times. My rule of thumb is unless we get two complete model 00z/12z suites by gfs and euro in a row showing a storm I’m not buying it.
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    And the torch won’t make the snow go poof, bc there won’t be any on the ground.
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7th-2022
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    I applaud that you are very even keeled and stick your guns even though your thoughts might differ from the consensus.
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    That’s how you get 135k followers lmao . F being right, just post the most extreme and polarizing weather.
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap.
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    One great winter month here since Winter 2018/19
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    As we’ve said before, cutters and torches are easier to verify as there is plenty of room for model error which still delivers the same undesirable result for us.
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    Well first off, the beginning of the warming isn't in the long range. It's Day 7-9 so that has more legs verifying, if you look close, the torch is more south central US, unless we get a cutter of course, then we get into the warm sector. I'm still holding out some hope for Christmas week for a well timed cold with an anchored High Pressure and low staying south of us, instead of a raging cutter..
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    SO TRUE! This isn't long range anymore, now in medium range with the torch.. All this BS with the coldest air on the globe, December to remember... How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    I'd take what the EURO and AIFS offer any day at this point...
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    Gotta love that 1-3" potential on some guidance for Virginia Friday. The new NNE
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    6z is a whiff for most fringe SE, still days away from having any idea on this one, most likely a miss/fringe or light to moderate hit if we get enough PNA..
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    EPS looks awful for Christmas, GEPS, AIFS, GEFS all look a bit colder, with GEFS looking coldest.
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