Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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The meaningful stuff is all snow.. Better man snow before the great freeze, glacier pack.. Thinking a good 4-6"+ for you -
latest hrrr has .75" qpf all snow for Weymouth lol
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925s are very cold and its been cold for a while, don't think it's much of an issue, def the further south and east you are at first will be a bit more of an issue
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Def think shoreline temps New Haven east will be an issue at first at least
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I’d say that’s definitely possible , but more like the 25th percentile. Where 4-7 is the 50th percentile and 8-9 is the 75th percentile . We shall see what verifies.
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8-10:1 in between bands .. 15-20:1 in the good banding .. Average ratios will depend how long you are under the banding..
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it got much juicier, 3km and 12km, probably best run for SNE as a whole of any suite..
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Euro totally caved but then didn’t end up caving too much after all and Euro will probably be king still.
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Funny how this all played out.. Euro 100% nailed the start time on this, gfs and RGEM were adamant on a start time near midday here.. Looks like a quick 6 hour thump.. If the only model we had was the Euro last 2 days, we'd be pretty excited right now..
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pretty decent cut back out east 20% on euro, about 10% out west in SNE
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The wolf is back maybe some good juju later tonight
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Just older data , newer data is less amped and SE
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Keep the faith.. 2-4 seems really low, but who knows.. We aren't budging from our first call of 4-8" statewide besides the SE corner.. Will be a nowcast to determine best banding
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Fair to say now AIFS is the clear leader in the clubhouse up through 18z today it never had a bad run.. always in that 4-7" range
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ya your area still gets hit by the goods, the western areas got cut back, we shall see...
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Don't look at total, some of that is today, well east mass is still a good bit, cut down the rest , we shall see.. consensus is coming though..
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Ya that was a big drop on GFS, now euro is the wettest piece of guidance funny enough.. Fun little storm ..
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Widespread 4-8" is likely, with a pretty large but narrow stripe of 8-10" .. that's been my thinking all along, through some ups and downs, but still looking like that's where we are headed.. Let's see if GFS holds again
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RGEM has .6 to .8 frozen qpf for SNE, NAMs aren’t catching on yet, maybe the nail it? But I doubt it
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lol yup this is a solid depiction I have no idea what all the "meh" is about
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solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow? Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff.
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I'll shield my eyes when you are complaining about how you only got 7" and I got 9" lmao
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Finally we earned one. Find the bands, look at snow growth and go to work.
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Euro jacks ray with 14” after all that advisory talk lmao
