Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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Happy to see the NAMs east and weaker .. lol 24-30 hours out and we still have 3 solutions.. blend is best for all.. Euro will be at least a 65% cave when set and done it seems which is rare -
Remember when some said no chance.. might not be us , but many are getting 8-12 in the Northeast
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Not the SE Folks , we are still in the game but it’s getting close for comfort
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Ya I’m skeptical of it being that far west, GEFS going west has me a bit shook, I hope we messenger east .. just get us around 6” and the cold after and I’m happy, will suck to see an 8-16” band in the berkshires but oh well
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Final confirmation of a massive cave unfolding by euro .. hope Rgem and gfs go east at 12z for the sake of this forum.. off to the gym
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All hail Reggie ggem and gfs , looks like a 100% euro cave is coming wow… euro steadily amping and going west each run til go time seems probable - current trends aren’t good SE of 84
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Looks exactly the same .. noise NW bump and a tic beefier meh .: it’s actually SE of the 12z surface low placement .. better NW banding signal that’s about it.. 70% euro 30% gfs with ratios in NW band is still my gut.. would yield 4-8”+ for many. Goodnight
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By blending euro and gfs. We will find out if euro is playing nice any second
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.5 to .8 qpf across the area
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Ukie bumped west and beefed up precip
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Which is great for many.. Going to need more than that noise to get to the euro and the “only advisory snows” .. interesting battle
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Moral of the story RGEM and GGEM, and GFS largely stayed exactly the same just some noise and bumps east
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It’s a wide swath of 8-12”+ verbatim but ya it is best case
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It said it’s discounting the operational euro and blending ai euro and graphcast
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lol me too , wow declaring a win 42 hours before a storm is never good
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Will the Canadian servers be able to handle the weenies refreshing the biggest Rgem run since 2015
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NAM has been that way too, btw NAM doesn’t look too good at 00z
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Where did they drop seems the same to me? nothing has changed since they issued it, every piece of guidance held their 12z stance except NAM beefed up. I’d 00z backs off towards euro then yes they will decrease that
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zero are exactly like rgem and gfs.. 10 members are amped and are well west of the operational run.. The amped members are like 75% as zonked as the GFS .. just looked at the precip panels .. interesting its more impressive than I thought, some of this east of the river is from saturday but west of river this is mostly sunday .. @OceanStWx
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Here is the 90th percentile for reference it’s further west and more impressive than 12z.. The 75th and 90th percentile are the ones that show those western members I assume, that mean is more impressive and further west than 12z was . The 10th and 25th percentile are pretty dry. Still so much uncertainty on eps but some more moderate hits that are further west. Let’s see if that translates to a more amped and west move at 00z.
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Not really, you look for a lean, especially when other guidance is leaning that way.. we will find out at 00z if those west leaners were a blip or not. There’s actually a lot of far east members skewing it east. Interesting I wonder if we take those out at 00z and eps jumps west.
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10 out of 51 would have been well west of the op.
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More than 12z is the point
