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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    Really like that presentation.
  2. Burghblizz
    GFS tellin yinz to chill
  3. Burghblizz
    I think it’s a potential replacement for HRRR/RAP and those tend to compound thermal errors outside of 18 hours.
  4. Burghblizz
    Isn’t that like a next gen rapid refresh model? I would think that would have a warm bias in this range.
  5. Burghblizz
    Where were they at?
  6. Burghblizz
    That freezing rain looks like it has evil eyes
  7. Burghblizz
    Maybe a smidge drier overall, but certainly nothing that leaps towards the NAM. 0Z may be interesting as it corrected (in a good way) north yesterday. But obviously a wide sweet spot still
  8. Burghblizz
    GFS is gonna hold
  9. Burghblizz
    Germans hold at 18z
  10. Burghblizz
    Evolution of the NAM looks fine. Can’t really put too much stock in what it does in the final 24 hours. Really plows the SLP north and dry slots us a bit. Heavier snows would be city and north
  11. Burghblizz
    This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, unless they really think ratios would be impacted. Most of the immediate area would still see no ice, but they would be scaling back accum everywhere. But I also have to think this is the heaviest QPF scenario.
  12. Burghblizz
    Euro flirts a little more with the tongue than GFS, and doesn’t quite have that long duration that goes into Monday. But it gets close as far as output and or probably thumps a little harder along the way.
  13. Burghblizz
    Not gonna lie - I went looking for the high end potential version, but didn’t see it yet.
  14. Burghblizz
    I’d be a little disappointed if it’s 6 or 7, although I know that’s a reasonable “good” outcome still. Mostly because we have been doing well with beefed up clippers and LES producing 4-6” type snows. Definitely a different investment in this one!
  15. Burghblizz
    I doubt we get there even in the win scenario. I think the official 10th biggest is around 15” or 16”. While the official total tends to be on the higher side when it comes to seasonal totals, it’s usually on the lower side with major storms. Storms like Jan ‘94 and Jan ‘96 are nowhere to be found, even though parts of AGC/Wash/Westmoreland got 20”+. I don’t think that’s what we are looking at here, but man it would be nice.
  16. Burghblizz
    It has…and it does. But usually in the panels inside 48 hours.
  17. Burghblizz
    The only thing NAM did was not give the warm and fuzzies of passing around 20” Kuchera maps. Don’t think it changes much at this point.
  18. Burghblizz
    It was looking stringy and unorganized at first, but it’s getting its act together by hour 72. The end result will be good. Taken literally, it suppresses the precip at first, and then drives the SLP into our backyard which creates mix and dry slot issues. I guess it’s an example of threading the needle to get a “fail” for bigger snows, but verbatim still probably 10” +
  19. Burghblizz
    lol - rage bait. Yeah, I had to do a double take at the timeframe. I really do think though it’s because they don’t want to put out a map that extends more than 72 hours out.
  20. Burghblizz
    Good info and good balanced take. I’ll still look at the clown maps and dream, but great info for what is more likely (which isn’t bad at all)
  21. Burghblizz
    I’d say the 6Zs more than held serve!
  22. Burghblizz
  23. Burghblizz
    Icon is a mauling. 15”-20” forum wide with tongue back in WV where it belongs.
  24. Burghblizz
    Of course it also depends on where that guy was.
  25. Burghblizz
    Who was the one having lunch? I think that was probably an intentional exaggeration to highlight he thought it still might be come NW
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