Burghblizz

It’s also pretty close to what it’s been showing. Don’t understand that comment at all

Funny how people quickly forget about this beauty in Dec 2020. Before that it was 11” in 3.2018. So we have a had a couple “foot type” storms since 2010. But that tells me if you want to engrain this in memories, we probably need to be up over a foot officially, with 15” reports around.

At this point it might not even by overperform - just “perform”

I like the timing of this. Since it will (hopefully) be all day tomorrow, I don’t feel obligated to stay up. Up early and let’s get it on

McCarthy….

The were looking at Pivotal 10:1, so could have been other presentations that showed more snow.

Keep in mind Euro is historically a warmer model that also has called off many a storm. If you blend all the other guidance, this result seems pretty feasible. And it’s not on the super warm train. (Maybe not quite the totals, but the general depiction in our area seems good)

I doubt think that NAM result guarantees anything down the road - but it certainly shows it can overdo it. Still optimistic that city and points north stay clean. Honestly, the only area in the metro area where things might be held down to a significant degree is the 119 cooridoor. But hopefully still >8” in through there before mixing.

“Reliable source”

I think the main thing at this point that will determine 10” versus 15” for Allegheny County is ratios. Everything else looks locked and loaded!

Forget what I said about not putting too much stock in the rapid refresh models out to 48…

Chat GTP basically told me it’s “typical NAM behavior” and that it holds on to partially melted particles even if the warm layer was very shallow or gone. Disclaimer: I’m posting this snippet for entertainment purposes, and we know that the NAM does in many cases sniff this out. But could be something to this: Ignore NAM sleet if: 850–700 mb is ≤ –2°C No >0°C layer ≥ ~30 mb Other models (GFS is snow Use NAM for: QPF placement Thermal trends Frontogenesis / banding signals But not for dominant p-type in marginal cold events.

Tongue closed in on 3k

Yeah as far as the overall area, it probably would have wound up averaging around 15” for the entire storm. I do think it’s overdoing that tongue for the southerners. Those rapid refreshes tend to drag more warm air in, and the longer ranges loses the short term data assimilation that anchors it.

That’s only through 5 PM Sunday

I think NWS has mentioned it to the south since there is a chance of both wetter snow and ice

That’s a good sign if higher res is showing less of the garbage

We’ll see if it holds on to this at 0Z. I wish for the southern guys it pulled back a little on the tongue - but I still think everyone is fine given it’s about the most north guidance there is. Totals should still look pretty NAMMY for most.

Yeah I said that in a follow up. It’s Z

You are right about that - it’s actually 10 PM Sunday. Same idea though - would be nice to get that kind of icing on the cake late in the storm.

What’s interesting is that is actually early Monday morning. Doubt that exact thing happens - but directionally the GFS is saying that if we get the prolonged back end, there could be some high ratio snows.

5:1 ratios in the low teens would be something. Probably tiny flakes

Don’t see this too often:

Some good summaries on this page https://www.weather.gov/media/pbz/DssPacket.pdf

It’s kind of a shame the locals aren’t really part of this experience any more. Maybe it’s because there is less reliance there….but also no one really jumps out as someone that caters to enthusiasts. For example - KDKA seems like they have a fun met room, but no one is breaking down models and scenarios. Although Ray P did have a bit of a funny X post. Basically said “my forecast is 6-12”. It’s conservative due to a few wild cards, and will probably go up…but don’t ask me about someone else’s forecast. Ask them!”. Obviously he is likely getting bombarded with questions since weather apps had been flashing big numbers for days.