Festus

Dammit. Now I need to revise my MDT guess for the contest i'm not in. Is it acceptable to just go with the Roger at 8 - 50"? Seriously, I cannot imagine being an NWS met with this one where your forecasts have so much impact one way or the other.

Latest CTP AFD (is it too late to enter the MDT snowfall contest?): A long duration winter storm will continue to impact central PA through Monday night. We will transition from phase 1 of the storm to phase 2 as the primary sfc low weakens over the OH Valley tonight and energy transfers to a strengthening coastal low offshore the Delmarva/NJ. Hires models particularly the HREF/HRRR are showing dry slot penetrating into the lower Susquehanna Valley after midnight, and in response we expect snow to change to or mix with sleet and freezing rain into early Monday morning. The gradient between deepening coastal low and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an anomalous easterly flow focused into eastern PA. Expect wintry mix to transition back to snow by midday Monday with increasing snow rates through Monday afternoon. 12Z HREF was not that bullish for >1"/hr rates showing highest probs running along the CWA border btwn BGM and CTP. Models continue to show fgen band setting up in the deformation zone and pivoting over east-central into northeast PA Monday evening and into Monday night. The key takeaway for the dayshift cycle was an overall reduction in storm total snowfall supported by the HREF mean/extended range 12/18Z HRRR and backed by a WPC/NBM blend, with a shift in max snowfall amounts (10-15+" range) toward the Poconos/NEPA. Local CWA max is in Sullivan County pushing 1.5 feet/18 inches. There could be some changes in the Monday night period as model spread increases with the orientation and intensity of pivoting fgen/deformation band. We were keen to place the highest POPs and heaviest snowfall over the NE zones. As the coastal low deepens, gusty northerly winds are expected over the far eastern parts of the area with max gusts in the 30-35 mph range early Monday.

Just the finest of flakes visible here. DP 14 but improvement over the 9 it was an hour ago.

Hmmm...your snow map in the MA thread has MDT in the 8 - 15" zone with local to 18". Maybe some insider knowledge on the "local to 18"?

Just a reminder - Top 10 all time for Lancaster (Millersville): 1. January 7-8, 1996 — 30" 2. January 22-23, 2016 -- 26.7" 3. February 11-12, 1983 — 24" 4. February 16-17, 2003 — 24" 5. February 5-6, 2010 — 24" 6. February 15-16, 1958 — 20" 7. February 9-10, 2010 — 19" 8. March 13-14, 1993 – 18” 9. March 20-21, 2018 - 17.5" 10. (tie) January 16, 1945 - 17" 10. (tie) February 3-4, 1961 - 17"

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: No need, check official forecast, they did it for me. Can somebody tell me how Temiskaming Shores (pop 50) gets onto a map and Chicago doesn't? Seriously, I can certainly see how actual amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range but my forecast is based on GEM being best available modelling, have been tracking events in Europe for forecasting that I do, and GEM has been quite reliable all winter when GFS and ECM are not in agreement, when they are in agreement I tend to take that blend and just check GEM for possible deviations -- what's interesting, and this may answer a question asked in the thread by Stormtracker IIRC, what the Canadian model may be picking up is the setting up of blocking from the fairly strong trailing wave that formed in the wake of the Tuesday s.e. VA developing low that then exploded to 952 mbs south of Newfoundland, then was followed by developing low -- also developments over Greenland and Europe are slowly building towards a major blocking episode, GEM seems to have done better with this and I noticed today's ECM 12z run has backed off a very progressive 00z solution in Europe towards at least 50% of the cold advection for Britain and Ireland suggested on GFS and GEM. My forecast scenario could also go wrong if the retrograde loop is further north than GEM shows. This would shift the 24-30 inch outcomes into east central PA entirely, and would probably result in 50-60 per cent validation rates on my amounts for BWI and DCA, IAD. Anyway all my forecast really says is that I feel the RGEM has the best call on development. We'll find out on Monday. Lifted from the MA forum. Wasn't the GEM the one with those scary gray colors usually not seen outside of Buffalo during an epic lake effect event?

Warning issued from LWX for PA border counties. 6 - 12" with 0.1" of ice.

And for the record, the Weather Channel storm name is Orlena which means "golden".

Zoinks. Maybe the Weather Channel needs to refire the 2 - 3 ft graphic. And then 50 and rain by Friday. Double zoinks.

From CTP's AFD earlier - "Wind gusts 30-35mph are possible across the far southeast zones particularly early Monday as the low deepens offshore the Delmarva/NJ coast." Coupled with - "Blizzard Warning: Sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater and considerable falling and/or blowing snow. These conditions must last for at least 3 hrs. (Usually associated w/6+ inches of snowfall in central PA)" ...Just maybe

Watch issued by LWX. We can't be too far behind.

Bup 'o kiss here. Like completely dry.

Spot on at the moment Mag - my grid for Monday night: "Sleet, possibly mixed with snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%." Ick.

WWA issued for all (just added the 4 southeast counties). Quite the potpourri depending on one's location.

Yep, my bad. At least the giant bologna won't be ice covered for the drop tonight.

WWA for all except Lancaster and York counties.

Snowpack took a hit in the past 24 hours. Tips of the grass visible in some spots. Might not be a bad thing given the .75 - 1 inches of "showers" in my grid for Thursday (pet peeve - wouldn't .75 - 1 inch be called "rain"?).

Do you guys use your personal weather stations or use the closest WU station when reporting conditions?

Low of 9.7F here in East Petersburg. Coldest reading so far in calendar 2020!

Reports the highest storm total of 44" near Binghamton. https://www.yahoo.com/news/deadly-winter-storm-brings-nearly-165906297.html

Right at 10" here. The blower was unamused moving it but got through. Amazing I have dry driveway already. Even at basically the lowest sun angle of the year, a clear sky can finish the drying quickly.

All sleet. Great visibility though.

Sleet mixing in here at the moment.

Dry slot around mid Virginia moving north has me a little concerned. What's the thinking of that either filling in or shutting us off?

This is just grand. I put a long line Christmas lights along my sidewalk and around the front of the house about 6 inches off the ground. It appears that won't end well.