dendrite
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Everything posted by dendrite
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It’s kinda funny to even see modeled. It’s like July up there.
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Meh...you know how these systems go. Just when everyone things they have it figured out we get some wtf’s as it starts playing out. I’m not saying it’s right...just saying if we wake up Mon morning and it’s a peltfest up to Tippy I wouldn’t be surprised either. Basically I lean way more on your side, but from a probabilistic perspective I give it a 5% chance.
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Probably not even cold enough aloft for nucleation...lol. It has BED reaching -2C at H65. I agree with Ray...toss that for now. The 12km is warm enough for a higher end goalpost.
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Already some decent convection just west of the MS this morning.
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You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin.
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3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON.
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This is what we do. As soon as we start to see model consensus they start spiraling into the abyss.
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Really like the mid level RH swinging more north later on. Not really too worried about NAM details. I feel like we're going to get some curveballs close in.
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Snow barely into SW CT by 18z Sun.
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This isn't one of those easterly flow firehose deals. The low levels will be backed to the N-NE. It's the midlevels that are easterly.
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They are going to be pissed when they walk out Monday morning.
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That'll make Gene sleep easier.
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Ginxy posted them a day or two ago.
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Gotta watch those 6hr vs 12hr increments when making loops over on TT.
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Just missing the 2ft blob over NYC.
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Looks like it finds a way to nickle and dime a weenie 1.25" QPF to the coop. Should be a Currier and Ives start to the week.
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GFS is bringing the midlevel goodies up here.
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Really good front end thump. It's kinda hard to have your cake and it eat too. The WAA/isentropic lift is what's giving you your forcing.
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Nice hit north of the Pike up to CON/here.
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At least whatever we get will be all snow. Although ptype issues here would be quite the lol.
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NAM is still pinging up to ORH by 60-63hr. H85 crashes, but it's almost like the wedge deepens and undercuts the warm air aloft at H75.
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Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there.
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Did someone get gravy in the CON ASOS again?
