SACRUS

Clouds the caveat today.

74 / 64 partly cloudy. Warmest day since Aug 26th last year. Pending on clouds the warm areas in C/N/NE-NJ get first 90s of the year otherwise mid - upper 80s and a few 89's with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Warm Friday but clouds again limiting widespread 90s - enough sung gets some warmer spots to 90. Front is slow and hangs around nearby Fri night - Mon AM wit clouds popup storms and showers but the previously forecast frontal passage with widespread storms has been muted with less than 0.75 and only scattered sponts picking that up with storms. 6/ 9 - 6/14 overall warmer than normal with trough back to our west in the GL/MW and onshore component along the coast should keep the opportunity for storms and limit highs shy of 90. GFS lost its persistent long range tropical development. Beyond there mid month 6/16 week heights building east and the heat is moving north and east looking overall warm - hotter that week.

Highs: TEB: 89 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 86 BLM: 86 EWR: 86 TTN: 85 NYC: 83 LGA: 82 JFK: 76 ISP: 76

Not sure about the re-analysis if any but here is another account "It raked Norfolk with "undiminished violence" for 27 hours from the morning of the 3rd, as the storm passed by to the east. The wind came in "flaws". Trees were uprooted. At noon on the 4th, stores on the wharves were flooded up to five feet in depth. High winds howled through Washington, DC. Along with a cold rain, winds leveled crops. The storm then moved northeast past Nantucket on the 5th. An account of the storm was given by Ann Waller Tazewell, wife of the then governor of Virginia in a letter to her son. She describes the storm as such "....The rain commenced on Friday morning (3rd), and continued pretty steadily all day, at night the wind blew so hard that this house rocked considerably. I was so much alarmed as to be unable to sleep but very little - I thought of my flowers, but could not expect anyone so much as to look after my cows or anything, as the rain fell in torrents, and the wind came in flaws, which made it like thunder yesterday (4th) the storm continued until five in the evening, there was a strong northwest wind all day, and the highest tide I ever saw in my life. The wind and tide together tore down all our enclosures at the other lot, upset our cow-house and then dashed it to pieces, tore up some of the wharf logs, upset the Temple there, and drifted it into the flower garden. We sat at the front windows witnessing the destruction all the time it was going on. Our front lot was two thirds covered by the tide. Some vessels that we saw pass rapidly by, were driven ashore at the Hospital Point (Portsmouth)........" Ann Tazewell later compares the storm to the great gale of September 1821 in this following passage: " ....Such a storm was never experienced here before, by anyone that I have heard speak of it. It is thought to have been far worse than the September gale of 1821. " Mrs. Tazewell's letter also mentions that they could not prepare dinner since the tide level was even with the kitchen floor. An account of the storm as given by the Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald described the storm as such. .....It is uncommon to hear of violent storms and hurricanes on any part of our extensive coast in the month of June; but we have to notice a visitation of stormy weather, which commenced about 9 o'clock on Friday night (3rd), rarely if ever equaled within the life span of the oldest inhabitant. The storm of the 3rd of September 1821 was perhaps more violent but it only lasted three or four hours, while this storm continued with undiminished violence, from the hour we have stated until 12 o'clock on Saturday night (4th), or about 27 hours. The wind at the commencement of the storm was northeast and so continued until about 12 o'clock on Saturday, when it began to haul gradually to the northwest and westward, and held up at southwest.... According to this account, the tides in this storm were higher than those in the September gale of 1821."

Smoke / haze has cleard NJ and most of the 5 boroughs slowly fading east. Tomorrow clouds from the mess around N-FL - GA could drift north - we'll see if any impacts on us as a potential limiting factor on highs.

Noon Round up New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 82 LGA: 80 ACY: 80 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 PHL: 79 TTN: 79 BLM: 78 ISP: 74 JFK: 72

to 78 (add 10) gets to 88 for here. Smoke mainly cleared through Jersey. Hot spots look low 90s tomorrow

Hazy smoke slowly clearing east in NJ

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1943) NYC: 99 (1925) LGA: 96 (1943) JFK: 91 (1971) Lows: EWR: 48 (1964) NYC: 48 (1926) LGA: 51 (2023) JFK: 49 (2023) Historical: 1825 - A hurricane struck Long Island NY leveling trees and causing damage to ships. The early season hurricane, which originated around Cuba, caused major damage along the Atlantic coast from Charleston SC to New York City. Many were lost at sea. (David Ludlum) 1825: A severe storm of tropical origin swept up the Atlantic Coast during the first week of June 1825 with reports of significant damage from Florida to New York City. Shipping logs told of a disturbance at Santo Domingo on May 28th and Cuba on June 1st. Gales were reported at St. Augustine, Florida on the 2nd. The Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald reported "undiminished violence" from the gale force winds for 27 hours, ending on June 4th. The effect of the storm reached well inland. Washington had cold, heavy rain all day on the 4th with high winds laying the crops in the vicinity. The wind also tore up trees by the roots in front of the State House in Philadelphia. This storm impacted the New Jersey Coast and the Long Island area as well with high winds and a two-foot storm surge. A Columbian frigate was driven ashore as were many smaller boats. The largest loss of life occurred along the Long Island shore when a schooner capsized. The entire crew of seven was lost. 1860 - Iowa's Commanche Tornado , with wind speeds estimated in excess of 300 mph, was unquestionably one of the worst experienced by early settlers, with nearly a million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1877: A tornado of estimated F4 intensity touched down just west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois and moved east-northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were damaged or destroyed. At least 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 others injured. 1885: Pittsburgh, PA & Cleveland, OH received up to 10 inches of rain that caused serious flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1892: A rare June snowfall occurred at Cheyenne, WY with 8 inches reported also in 1937 Cheyenne, WY reported 3 inches of snow.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1945: Several locations in the upper Midwest had their coldest June temperatures on record. La Crosse, WI and Waukon, IA dropped to 32°. This was their latest spring freeze and coldest June temperature. Other locations recording their coldest June temperature were Mondovi, WI: 29° and Richland Center, WI: 31°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1958: An F4 tornado tracked 32 miles through St Croix and Dunn Counties in Wisconsin, killing 20 people and injuring 110 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982 - A four day storm began over New England which produced up to 14 inches of rain in southern Connecticut breaching twenty-three dams and breaking two others. Damage was estimated at more than 276 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in south Texas produced 6.5 inches of rain at Hockheim, and five inches at Hallettsville, in just a few hours. Afternoon thunderstorms in Virginia deluged northern Halifax County with 5.5 inches of rain in two hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Dusty WA, and wind gusts to 88 mph at Swanquarter NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temp- eratures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Glasgow MT and Havre MT with readings of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. Just four tornadoes were reported, but there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Lynchburg had 70 mph winds, 95% of city lost power, 21 million damage. Severe thunderstorms were widespread from Missouri and Arkansas eastward to the Mid Atlantic states with more than 260 reports of severe weather, including over two dozen tornadoes. An early morning mesoscale convective complex over southern Missouri and north Arkansas moved eastward and evolved into a vicious derecho, traversing eastward across Kentucky in excess at 80 mph at one point. Wind gusts reached 100 mph near Elizabethtown, KY. Damage was widespread. 30 homes and mobile homes suffered major damage in Butler County. Over 75% of the roads in the county were blocked due to downed trees. 4.5 inch diameter hail fell at Smith Mountain Lake, VA. Total damage from the high winds at hail in Virginia was $60 million dollars, with $21 million of that occurred in the city of Lynchburg. 3.5 inch inch diameter hail was reported in Davie County in North Carolina. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: The temperature at Williston, ND dropped to 26° to establish a monthly record for June. Neillsville, WI also reported their coldest June temperature as they dropped to 22°. The mercury dropped to 24° in Tower, MN as winter made one last call across the northern Plains. 2 to 3 inches of snow fell in portions of South Dakota and 7 inches fell in portions of Wyoming. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

63 / 55 - warmest day since May 17th or May 2nd for many. Mid - upper 80s, stray chance one of the hot spots in C/NE/N-NJ could touch 90. Some haze / smoke could reduce a degree. Tomorrow first 90s for many in NJ / NJ/NYC metro areas and some of the boroughs. Friday would get there too but clouds and scattered showers / storms look likely. Another cloudy weekend with storms and showers, although the latest forecasts have less focus of rain still think 1 inch is likely. Sunday could clear later in the day but other data has gone to the slower frontal passage the ECM has had most week, cloudy but warmer than the last 2 weekends. Next week 6/9 - 6/13 - near / above normal still rain chances with trough west of us into the GL/MW. Overall warmer look - wetter look into mid month. Heights rise later and pieces of the western heat building over the top and expanding east. GFS continues to try and get some tropical activity in the Gulf. Next shot at 90 degree temps would be in the 6/14-6/17 range.

2001 had one of the warmest 5 day periods from Aug 6 - 10th. 2005 was very hot in other parts of the region , NJ had 3-4 days in the 100s and a very sustained hot streak in Jun. 98 was on the cooler side each of the 3 months Ju-Jul-AU 1987/1988 were both very hot, 1989 near even.

Highs New Brnswck: 82 ACY: 82 PHL: 82 TEB: 82 EWR: 81 TTN: 81 NYC: 79 LGA: 79 ISP: 78 BLM: 77 JFK: 76 (* no inter hour highs 1300 - 1900)

2PM ROundup New Brnswck: 81 PHL: 80 ACY: 79 TEB: 79 ISP: 78 EWR: 78 TTN: 78 NYC: 77 LGA: 77 JFK: 75 BLM: 73

81 here now

Up to 78 here - nicest day sine May 17th

6/3/1997 LGA 61 / 49 JFK: 62 / 50 NYC: 61 / 49 EWR:

Wet in the central plains, and southeast with the cut off low near Northern FL, GA, and the Carolinas this week, storms from the slow front get our area closer to the >1 inch Fri-Sat.

Monday/Tue next week then trough into the GL/MW overall beyond there. Euro similar to the Canadian (not sure why its not updating yet). Week of 15 looks warmer as of now with ridging and more heat from the SW building east, perhaps the Western Atlantic Ridge back west later on in the month as well. No sustained heat on the horizon but what has become more typical above normal overall with potentially routine storms/showers with the trough to our west.

Warmest day since May 30th and first 80s (for most) since May 17th today. Also moving into a period + departures for a majority of the next 2 weeks (overall) .

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1943) NYC: 95 (1895) LGA: 93 (1943) JFK: 88 (2010) Lows: EWR: 45 (1946) NYC: 45 (1929) LGA: 49 (1946) JFK: 48 (1946) Historical: 1860: Iowa's infamous Camanche Tornado, likely an F5 storm, kills 92 and injures 200. Every home and business were destroyed. It was one of the most damaging families of tornadoes ever to strike the US and resulted in more farm fatalities than any other tornado except for the Tri-State tornado. 1921 - A cloudburst near Pikes Peak CO killed 120 people. Pueblo CO was flooded by a twenty-five foot crest of the Arkansas River, killing 70 persons. Fourteen inches of rain was reported at Boggs Flat, where a hard surface road through nearly level country was washed out to a depth of seven feet. (The Weather Channel) 1921: Heavy rains caused flash flooding over the southeastern portion of Colorado. The flooding cost the lives of 100 people and millions of dollars in property damage. 1959 - Thunderstorms in northwestern Kansas produced up to eighteen inches of hail near Salden during the early evening. Crops were completely destroyed, and total damage from the storm was about half a million dollars. Hail fell for a record eighty-five minutes. The temperature dropped from near 80 degrees prior to the storm to 38 degrees at the height of the storm. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Six days of flooding in South Texas culminated with five to six inch rains from Bexar County to Bandera County, and five to nine inches rains in Gonzalez and Wilson Counties. Total crop damage was estimated at 500 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Port Isabel, and wind gusts to 83 mph at South Padre Island. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed from the Southern Plateau Region to the Northern High Plains. Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing over the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon hours produced severe weather into the night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 169 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Newcastle, OK, and Wilson, OK. Softball size hail was reported at Monahans, Childress and Groesbeck TX. Monahans TX reported six million dollars damage. Five inches of rain deluged Geronimo OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Early morning severe thunderstorms dumped huge hailstones across northern Oklahoma. Hail, up to 6 inches in diameter in Enid, went through roofs of homes, damaged three jets at Vance Air Force Base, and did $500,000 in damage at a car dealership. Winds gusts reached 70 mph at Vance Air Force Base as well. Hail damage to the wheat crop was estimated at 70 million dollars. 1997: It was a chilly day in the East. The high temperature at Philadelphia International Airport was only 59 degrees, tying a record-low maximum for the date set back in 1881. The temperature at Middletown, Pennsylvania rose to 58 degrees, breaking the record-low maximum for the date of 59 degrees set back in 1915. Washington, DC only reached 58 degrees, breaking the old record-low maximum of 59 set back in 1915. Central Park in New York City only reached 61 degrees. 2002: An impressive heat burst at Amarillo, TX caused the temperature to jump to 90° at 3:21 am. The heat burst was accompanied by winds of 55 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Quickly up from 48 to 70. Clear now with a mostly sunny day and upper 70s to low 80s. Approaching 90 or to 90 in the warm spots Wed and Thu - pending on clouds from southern cut off low another high at or exceeding 90s in the warm spots otherwise mid/upper 80s east. Front slowly approaches later Friday with clouds in the way of the seasons first heatwave in the warm spots (most likely). Scattered storms / showers Sat with clouds before front clear later in the PM and evening with 1+ inches of rain. Hope to see it clear up Sunday but boundary is close by and could be the stingy clouds especially along the coast - front get us back near normal Sun - Tue. 6/9 - 6/15 looks overall above normal with limited heat and potential of storms with trough back into the GL/MW. Beyond there warmer look into and beyond mid month with heights rising into the east. Assuming smoke in PA slowly coming this way so get rid of the clouds and the magnet pulls in smohy haze

Highs today PHL: 75 EWR: 75 TEB: 74 ACY: 74 LGA: 73 New Brnswck: 73 JFK: 72 BLM: 72 ISP: 71 TTN: 71 NYC: 71

Tue should get to or exceed 80 for most of NJ / NYC metro as it looks now. We'll see next week with frontal boundary / clouds otherwise once to Tue could be 80s.

Collin Rugg on X: "NEW: Tourists seen running for their lives as Italy’s Mount Etna erupts, sending ash "several kilometers" into the sky. A tour company said they had about 40 people on the volcano when it erupted, as reported by CNN. The last time Mt. Etna erupted like this was in https://t.co/Vf25XkefP6" / X Etna erupts.

Are you in PA?