buckeyefan1

Dropped to 19 degrees early this morning

GSP .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Tuesday: An active extended is in store as models come into better agreement about a potent system entering the eastern CONUS over the weekend. Deterministic guidance is struggling to handle the system consistently, with the last 2 runs of the ECMWF finally converging on a strong cyclone affecting the Carolinas, even as latest run of the GFS begins to diverge from this solution. The CMC has consistently depicted a solution in line with the latest ECMWF. Such a solution would result in cyclogenesis along a stalled frontal boundary south and east of the forecast area, in turn producing a cyclone that shifts east too quickly to appreciably warm 850mb temps. So, precipitation develops atop bitterly cold low-level air, resulting in an all-snow solution throughout Friday night and much of Saturday. About 75% of GEFS members now depict some amount of wintry precip occurring with this system, indicating the latest dry solution from the deterministic run is an outlier; nonetheless, there remains significant uncertainty with the timing and intensity of this system, as well as what, if any, accumulations could be expected should another winter system actual materialize. In any case, the upper pattern becomes much less perturbed behind this system, and cold, dry air builds in at the surface. A weak reinforcing cold front should arrive Monday evening, but looks too dry to warrant any PoPs.

35/50 of those members show mby getting snow

Backyard birding in the snow Here's a classic southern snow cardinal to brighten your day

Looks a little sharper heading into texas

Plus all the dumpster fire, train wreck, cliff diving, toaster in the bathtub meme's you could ever wish to see in one place

I feel your pain and hope that everyone understands that these statements are imby dependent. There are a lot of us that do our best to cover everyone's backyard and if someone needs an explanation of why it isn't working out for them, we have the most awesome mets and hobbyists who can assist with their learning curve. Otherwise, the sanitarium is the place for being disgruntled, salty, excited, scared, and everything in between.

I legit spit my drink on the bolded Perfect analogy

This is the pinned thread for this system. We all realize everyone wants different things to happen, but there only needs to be one discussion thread.

AVL GSP ATL HKY CAE ILM CHS RDU GSO

Let's do this!! Please keep the banter in the sanitarium and the awesome discussion rockin' as usual gfs ens euro ens

I love reading the awesomeness in here Congrats everyone!!!

This week's threat is now pinned

Congrats everyone who got to watch those beautiful flakes fall from the sky!! I ended up with ~ 5" of snow/sleet

12z Euro suppressed, but there 18z gfs had a lot more than 12z

4.5" of snow/sleet in Fountain Inn. Still sleeting. Winds are steady out of the ne at 25 gusting to 40

Hi

Current 850's

It's still pretty much sleet. I'm not seeing anything on the trees at the moment and hope it stays sleet until we switch back over.

It's a 50/50 sleet/zr mix. The zr is closer to sleet if that is possible. Those winds are gusting to 30ish too.

Current 850's

Temp dropping, 28.8 and the transition is here. Buckle up everyone!

current 850's

Just took the pup out and you can hear the wind coming as the snow/sleet mix continues to fall at a pretty good clip.