LithiaWx

I’ve got bulbs starting to sprout.  What the hell?  It hasn’t been that warm recently.  It’s been a cold winter here too.  

It’s right about time for me to start some tomato seeds indoors before the transplant later in spring. 

Hell of a game,  they deserve it.   Foles proved he can kill it in the clutch.  Big time stage and he destroyed it. 

I need to see another snowstorm.  Will drive for snow.  Just need that opportunity!

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Buff chic dip, wings, fresh guacamole, homemade wings, few angry orchards apple, nachos! 

Praying for Eagles to win! Hate Brady more than 33 and rain

Can’t stand either one of the teams.  Patriots got us last year and we have lost to the eagles twice now in the playoffs.  Deep down I’m cheering for Brady.  I can’t stand the guy either but the dude wins.  

3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

So, whats the snack list like for everyones superbowl? Whats on tap?

Buffalo chicken dip plus some whisky and wine

Feed the positive dog guys.  The pattern is reshuffling for a winter finale.  We can all hope it works out in our favor and it very well may. 

No whammy,  no whammy,  no whammy

Winter isn’t over yet.  Both times I scored this year we didn’t see it coming until 2-3 days out.  This is a year the LR globals have been awful.

4 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Great book with a simple message. Must read for my kids and bought copies for friends that needed it.

Yes sir awesome book.  I like “The energy bus” too along with Linchpin.  My job pays for free audio books.  I listen to them on my long commutes in Atlanta. 

I’ve learned a lot this winter.  We don’t need a raging STJ to score big. 

STJ is a blessing and a curse.  Too much WAA for a lot of areas in this forum.  It seems they are storms with mixing issues (down here) but typically big ones.  

This northern stream dominant winter has been awesome.  Reminds me of the is book I read called who moved my cheese.   We are all looking for the perfect pattern when we had a -NAO and a STJ.  We can score in other ways too.  We keep going back to cheese station A looking for our perfect pattern.  It’s gone and may not comeback for a long time. Gotta find new cheese.  Northern stream isn’t all that bad.  Plenty of room in here for anyone else. 

KATL is -8 for January through the 18th.  35.0 average.  Wondering how that ranks all time for ATL. 

Fab Feb delayed but not denied.  -JB

Good luck tonight Carolina fans.   I’m a Saints fan over the Panthers because I lived in New Orleans for a while in the 90’s.

This should be an awesome game.  As usual for Uou guys a lot hinges on how well Cam plays. I’m legit worried.  Composed Cam and it’s probably lights out for the Saints. 

3 NFC South teams in the playoffs,  pretty awesome  To see that.  Go Falcons tonight and go dawgs Monday night.

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea things are not looking good and the early December snow will likely be the best snow of the season for most of WNC IMO

Yeah I agree.  Trends don’t look good.  I can’t complain though.  Scored 9” from the early December snow.  That’s like 300-400% of normal for me lol.   Law of averages says I either just made up for the years of no snow or I’m fooked for a few years. 

7 hours ago, burrel2 said:

Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well.

Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad.

Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. 

NAM and RGEM I think we’re the first models to start spitting out huge totals for parts of GA. Even bey didn’t sniff out the big hit possibility until 24-36 hours ahead of time.  The GFS sucked here too.  Had a suppressed nothing and played catch-up to the Euro.  I think you’re right about the NAVGEM it also handled the storm well down his way. 

10” lollipop over west ATL.  Hard to ignore the signals that we get more than the inch or so forecast.  

Just now, burrel2 said:

FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events...

Very little IP or ZR all hi Rez modles really are suggesting snow or rain and that’s it. 

Here in Douglas just west of Atlanta it’s going to be feast or famine.  We’ve been safely in the snow on all models but a last minute jump of 20-40 miles will screw us over.  I expect to see snow falling most of the day tomorrow but little accumulation.  Possibly the Xmas day storm redux here in Atlanta. 

11 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there. Everything I'm seeing says you want to either be North or West of Atlanta when this thing hits. Sucks for me and other East metro residents, but not surprised.

I’m just west of Atlanta at home and work on acworth. Trends today have been amazing for this area. 

Sleetfest moxed with drizzle in Acworth 

25 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

 

Its a far more valid conclusion with statistical data to back it up. The atmosphere tends to go in patterns and cycles, this is a scientific fact. It's reasonable to conclude that when statistics indicate a certain pattern produces certain outcomes it's worth looking in to. 

After all, this is how seasonal forecasting is done even though this is in its infancy. Large scale patterns like El Niño's generally correlate with wetter patterns in this area and a better chance for cold weather. There are various other factors that affect it too but that's just one example. What Ron posted is an interesting correlation that is worth looking further into. He actually took the time to do research and back up his statements with statistical analysis, if you're going to criticize it you should come up with some facts to indicate otherwise. Just my 2 cents. 

It was a good post but it's up to him to prove the theory.  I obviously don't give it much credit.  There are too many variables which can be framed to fit the limited data.

3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Believe what?  We just noticed a strange pattern where it seems that the years that have extremely active severe weather in NC also tends to be the years we have landfalling TC in NC, while years with quiet severe weather seasons tend to not have landfalling TC's. Its just a interesting and fun observation and every year around this time we try to see where the numbers are. 

The theory is right up there with earthquake and hurricane correlation.   JMO but sometimes we look too hard trying to find patterns that are random. 

You guys can't really believe this stuff?  Can you?

correlation does not equal causation

1 hour ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Compare to other years. 

The Pacific side is a joke.  

Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. 

And that's not guaranteed.

Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

 

 

 

 

Welcome back 

11 hours ago, chubbs said:

Depending on details dipole is generally  bad due to high pressure over Beaufort, warm air from Russia and increased fram transport.

Yep dipole anomalies are known for the massive fram export.  Lots of MYI goes down the toilet in those patterns. 

77 and partly sunny.  I'm getting in a motorcycle ride before the rains hit!