LithiaWx

On 2/23/2017 at 1:20 PM, KENW0728 said:

Thanks for the information. It's a different set of rules down here--with this warmth I've been itching to get planting but have to keep reminding myself it's still winter. These 70's resemble a May heatwave back in the Chicagoland area.

Yep,  wait until early April.  We can get hard freezes into early April.  Everything is about 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule due to the record warmth. 

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Anybody heard from the Brickster?  Is he doing ok?

Trish, you and BigWeather should post more!  Glad we at least got to see some flakes fall.  Hopefully, more to come this winter.

I'm legit worried about brick.  His head may have literally exploded. 

3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Don't worry. You'll make up for it later in Jan and Feb.

Or on this storm.  Never underestimate the NW trend.  It happens a lot.  I can't count the number of storms that looked good only to move north, way north. 

4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Where are the people that were doing the hash tag #NWtrend or something like that? I need your love for the next couple of days.

You NWtrenders are borderline intolerable.

First ~ ten days of Jan or so are toast.  After that some other posters I have respect for are seeing more realistic possibilities. 

Nice thread.  To draw any scientific conclusions this is going to need something that is absolute you can score it on.  I am hearing a lot of what could be subjective deduction.  You will also need long term data to work out any short term variations.  Statistics are really cool,  I think you may have something here in the future. 

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

November volume at record low with roughly 25% less sea ice than last November.

Nothing to see here.  Move along as this is a hoax created by China. 

4 hours ago, Ufasuperstorm said:

2016 finished 3rd by their metrics.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/589/#26September

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Additionally, NSIDC always fails to mentioned sea ice extent minimum values before 2012 were based on a nine day trailing mean. Since then we have a 5 day trailing mean, which makes the minimum extent value appear lower than it would be had there been a 9 day trailing mean. The 2016 arctic sea ice extent minimum based on a 9 day trailing mean is 4.18 million square kilometers. For those wondering the daily NSIDC arctic sea ice extent daily minimum value was September 7th, 2016. 

 

Well done NSIDC 

Edit: I encourage you to calculate the 9 day trailing mean from NSIDC's own database below.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv

Yeah, the whole arctic ice situation really isn't that bad. 

The cheerleading in here by some is patently ridiculous.  We are number two in the record books.  There isn't much to hang a hat on except the date of the min where some can say they were right.  So what?  The ice is still in rough shape.  Low bar is really low.

Me standing next to my banana pepper plant. I'm almost 6 feet tall. This guy did particularly well this season. 

First harvest of the season! You can't really judge scale but let me tell you that zucchini is yuuuuugggggge.

Tomatoes are all green and most of my peppers are not quite mature.

Planted last Sunday. tomatoes, peppers, squash varieties. All in all 14 plants. First time planting in ground this year. I found a small space that has been used previously that has some extremely rich soil. This is a property I bought in December, the previous owner must have been a gardener.

Bought a motorcycle about a month ago. Kawasaki ninja 650r, what an amazing machine!

I've got weeds growing in this heat. Makes me want to plant a few things. Looking forward to the last freeze so I can start planting. I have a new property this year where I can actually plant in the ground instead of pots. Also scored some tomato seeds from my grandfather that he planted every year when he was still here.

MariettaWx very nice family. Best wished to you and yours.

Thank you Met I appreciate the kind words. Best wishes to you and your family as well.

I uploaded that from the desktop, not the phone

If it was a picture you took from your phone it will still be a problem. you would have to edit it and then save it, hen upload. Mite a giant pain pain. Nice picture even though it's sideways.

I don't know why we're sideways! It's not saved that way! :mad:

It's a bug when uploading from a phone. Try to edit the picture on your device and then save. After that your photo shouldn't be sideways when you upload.

Me and my wife at Zoo Atlanta and my daughter at Wonder Works in Gatlinburg, TN.

Also to get pictures to upload correctly from a phone. Just open the photo and do some sort of editing, then save. When you upload after that it will be normal. It's a bug.

Fine. I had a bizarre change of mind that lasted 15 minutes. The sentence in reference was wrong. I was wrong. Is that an adequate admission?

Getting back on topic, my initial argument still stands. The shorter term divergence between the satellite and radiosonde data can be largely attributed to inhomogeneities in the radiosonde data. The majority of the peer reviewed literature comparing the two reaches the same conclusion.

Didn't think you would, glad you did. Agree to disagree and move on is usually the best bet.

Maybe you interpreted it that way, but that's definitely not was I was trying to say. See my post below, I was referring to the idea that macroscale homogenization was taking place.

If you won't let this go, this roundabout will continue forever.

The last sentence is why you're the problem here.

For christ's sake, I never said they don't do gridding. I've explained what I was intending to say several times now. You don't have to believe me, but continuing this accusatory roundabout is pointless. Let it go.

Instead of continuing this pointless back and forth, let's have a scientific discussion regarding the inhomogeneities and uncertainties in the radiosonde data. I have more than 10 peer reviewed papers that I'm ready to post and discuss, should anyone be interested.

You were wrong, I'm not sure why you can't just drop it. Posting peer reviewed papers doesn't change what was said. The reason you're aggravating lots of people in here is because you can't drop it.

As skierinvermont says, it's impossible to debate with someone who claims he didn't say one of his own direct quotes. Or someone who contradicts himself completely as in "RATPAC has no gridding" then "I never said RATPAC wasn't gridded." Just a total deceit in order not to admit being wrong.

Also, individuals who are banned aren't supposed to make new accounts in order to post under a different name. Admins need to track the IP address in this case. Also, SOC should be on a very short leash as a previously banned poster. How he can create another disruption (and the broad consensus was that SOC was the party responsible) and then not be permanently banned is a shock to me.

Pretty much this, I'm all for second chances but jesus....

I'm not the problem this go around. I don't take anything personally here, but honestly I'm surprised at the level of discourse here lately.

I've been trying to have a scientific-minded discussion with posters who deliberately take my statements out of context, attack my character, and call me names. I've tried to get the entire discussion moved into PM, to no avail. I've tried to provide peer reviewed literature a to better elaborate on my positions, to no avail.

So yeah, I'm at a loss as for what to do here.

And yet you're at the center of most of the discourse. How much do you donate? Serious question.

Good god, I hope SOC donates a lot for the mods to look the other way. He IMO makes threads he posts in unreadable.

Greenland looks to get real cold in the next week...18z GFS shows -20C 850s atop the ice sheet at 180 hours. First sighting of the -20C isotherm in a few months:

 

greenland-20.gif

The deep freeze is coming. Greenland is about to be in the grasp of the long, cold, and dark winter season. I love this time of year as the cold builds, snow falls and summer retreats.