ValpoVike
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Everything posted by ValpoVike
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Even the 3km NAM is getting wetter. About the same increase for FoCo and the Larimer foothills, but holding steady south.
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12z HRRR is ticking up for Denver and points north by an additional .5", and an additional 1" in the foothills. Does anyone have any ideas on why the Para GFS is outputting lower QPF in the foothills than those down along the urban corridor? Quite odd.
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Welcome to EP. Yes the fog has been thick since yesterday afternoon. Which hotel did you choose? Hint: Claire's downtown or the Notchtop have the best breakfasts :).
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You're good
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It looks like the drug dealer came back to visit the GFS again... 18z Larimer county is again off the charts compared to 12z. Back to the old look of ~9". Fun to dream about, but I'll take half that (what is in the para) and be super happy and call it a day.
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Be sure to get food, or stay very close to downtown. I wouldn't want to walk or drive this weekend. None of the hotels have restaurants except the Stanley, but rooms there are $$$$. But it has a big tie into The Shining, which may be a good mood setter for an epic snowstorm. Let's avoid more in the thread, and PM if you have questions.
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I live just outside of Estes. It is about 1:30 in normal traffic. You should be able to get back down the canyon by Tuesday morning I would estimate. Edit- you will lose cell btwn Lyons and Estes Park. Solid no signal for that stretch.
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Estes Park
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2km WRF pulled from a Facebook post:
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It's still simply insane in southern Larimer with 9"+ around the Estes valley. I really don't know what to think, so many times do you see fantasy numbers but they almost always resolve over time. The GFS just seems to be going increasingly bonkers. Chinook, what does your met insight say?
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Seriously, what?
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For the past couple of days it has been consistent that if you want the maxima you should plan somewhere along Peak-to-Peak highway between Nederland and Estes Park. Allenspark looks really good, but this time of year not too many places to stay. Estes Park has a lot of hotels, along with great views, so that might work best for you.
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I live in an area that was severely impacted from Cameron Peak, and property owners have been actively working to remove debris from the streams and drainages. But, yeah there is concern.
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WPC seems to be placing their bets on a more southerly track. 72hr probs of >30" thru 12z Sunday looks a lot like the GFS QPF maps in terms of location. The light blue is 50-60% prob, which is crazy.
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00z is thru Monday on Pivotal.
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Well, 00z juiced up again. Even the para.
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I haven't had a chance to really look at it, but it appears that the Euro is not as deep. Even Wyoming is lower.
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The Euro just crapped on the QPFs, and the GFS came down a bit too but not as much.
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And the GFS this morning must have been offended by our incredulity and added even more QPF to Larimer. Over 8" liquid.
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Snow ratios could really be impactful this weekend. It will be interesting to see as even some of the lower qpf's of "only" 2.5" could be crippling at 12 or 15:1. Even 10:1 for that matter. For what it's worth, GFS seems to be factoring at 16 or 17 in spots. When I lived in the Midwest, ratio forecasts seemed to be a bit more accurate than in Colorado.
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Actually, the 12z Euro and the 12z GFSv16 are in decent alignment. They even are fairly remarkably close in terms of the bullseye, with about .6" delta in QPF and much lesser discrepancies further south around Denver. The GFS on the other hand is still way out there on the maxima.
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GFS isn't blinking at all. In fact, some areas in Larimer county are now showing over 7" QPF.
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I saw 70" when I lived in Chardon, OH which is geographically the bullseye in the Lake Erie snowbelt. The most I have seen up here is 44" on a few May's ago...but that melted almost entirely a day later with temps in the 70's. The AFD from NWS this afternoon is rightfully trying to walk thru all of the things that can get in the way, but I would be absolutely thrilled to get half of the 65" that the GFS is showing IMBY.
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You could go to Black Hawk and stay at one of the casinos...maybe a jackpot either way.
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12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well. If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window .
