ValpoVike

I just picked up 0.81” in under 40 minutes.

Usually the peak is late July thru most of August. There are also a lot of misconceptions about the monsoon. It typically affects the high country and occasionally storms push down into the plains.

Perhaps you should examine your expectations and not over-index on social or broadcast media. But even with that said I have noticed several Mets on social media being careful to say that not everyone will get rain on any particular day. Today a lot of people west of the metro would disagree with you. Except for Friday and partially Saturday, many locations have seen good precipitation. That goes for the past 2 weeks actually. Also, it is more of a pattern and not an event. The pattern allows storms to form on the western slopes.

I agree that this is pretty typical for Monsoon-time. The monsoon doesn't produce days and days of widespread heavy rain aside from a few lucky spots....but in years where it fails, it has severe consequences and it's absence has a remarkable effect. A big example is the 2020 "non-soon" which essentially created a summer of very low humidity + heat and that didn't end well.

For sure, northern front range did very well this week. Even Thornton did quite well. Sorry you guys didn’t.

I picked up 0.42" on Tuesday night about 30 minutes after the start of the dry lightning storm, and 0.80" on Wednesday. Today looks like a repeat of yesterday, so really pleased so far. After today, it looks like a couple of days of limited moisture up here then rain chances go up again Sunday thru most of next week.

Currently, we have the biggest dry lightning storm I have ever seen up here. Continuous ground to lightning, in every direction. It had better rain.

One thing comes immediately to mind, and that is criteria for Red Flag. One of the criteria for RF conditions is RH values roughly <20% along with wind and fuel conditions. Temp and dewpoint can vary, but as long as that criteria is met despite temp/dewpoint variations then the conditions meet one requirement for RF warnings.

I also had been missing out with storms going north and south of me, and mostly by a wide margin. However this morning we had a nice, gentle 3 hour rain. It only amounted to 0.19" but I'll take it.

The stratosphere has high ozone concentrations. My understanding is that in spring and early summer, intrusions are fairly common in mountain areas due to altitude. It also lowers RH substantially. Maybe a met can chime in with more details and some insight on the mechanics which I would love to understand.

May has been great for the drought in my area. Today's drought monitor shows D1/moderate drought conditions, down from D3/extreme just three weeks ago. I seem to recall that the data is collected on Tuesdays, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we had quite a bit of precip so it is possible that next week will continue to show improvement.

I am closing in on a 24 hour 1.0" total, and am extremely grateful that the temps are a bit higher than expected and therefore no accumulation. This is pushing my May total up close to 2.5" with significantly more forecasted thru the week. May is shaping up to be a drought buster for MBY fortunately.

Since Sunday afternoon thru overnight I have picked up 0.59”. About half of that from thunderstorms yesterday, and the rest thru snow showers early this morning. The temp is 35 degrees, and it will be interesting to see whether we get to the 4-5” of accumulation today. Regardless, it is good moisture.

Big time back off in the 12z GFS for the southern areas for sure, but the Larimer/Boulder foothills had essentially zero change. Around 16" for this area, while the 00z Euro shows 10-12", but I don't believe it at all unless this comes in colder. But the models have been trending colder for Monday, so we'll see.