pasnownut

But the look above that I liked showed 500 LP close enough to raise eyebrow. Yes we don’t typically, but if we were going to make some cold...climo says nows the time. That’s my point. Stack that 500 low and it will make its own cold.

While epic looks have degraded, we still are in peak climo and we can do it in less than stellar looks. Something to think about as we wait for the next unicorn to chase.

Boy that’s not far away from a nice look.

That’s what I’ve been thinking.

Yeah I agree that right now it’s just a couple models runs and likely a couple more model runs from something way different (and likely worse). Thing that raises my eyebrow is that we have a few big gums showing g something close to workable for us. Enough antecedent cold and maybe we sneak some mangled mess in.

Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in?

Well stated.

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

and too much attention to the bong..........

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh

So basically you want us to just stop using a long range threat to discuss long range....??. While most know better than to trust much beyond 240, we are smart enough to see the signs of better things coming and are glad to share/discuss long range stuff in a long range thread. you’re always welcome in banter

Back to the 30” or meh mindset are we??

Thats a great setup if it happens. Just nice to see a transition away from this upcoming hot mess and a medley of workable looks on Ens guidance moving beyond D7

Yeah after the last few days, that seems to be the day we start back into a more wintery regime. Still noteabe differences between GFS Ens so takeaway is somethings likely changing, EPS seems a bit quicker, and looks workable as well once beyond next week. Hope so.

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case. Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit. While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best. Just a suggestion.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up.

Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now.