pasnownut

18zs seemed to have followed seasonal progression and came NW w/ LP. Thought 500's didnt have a big cutter feel to them as the progressive flow as has been the norm ... but same old wash rinse repeat. Ughh

Yeah this is the next one to watch and verbatim, it dissects the state from SW to NE. I little wiggle the wrong way and were in trouble, but a little wiggle the other way and you may have your VDay plans changed to snowchasin w/ your sweetie.

I dont think you'll need a plane. Tug Hill has 2' on the ground, and looking at recent runs, says Northeast is in the game for a couple opps at nice snow. Maybe just s nice road trip instead. Hope you get to enjoy it as well. Nut

Nut had a fantastic weekend in Tioga/Potter. Lots of snow (10" at cabin 3" from prior and 7" from Thursday night/Friday), and 5-7" in valley around Gaines/Galeton/Germania. We did 181 miles and saw a decent amount of sled traffic. Snow line was basically IPT and north on way up Friday. We got 1 to 1.5" additional through Saturday evening till it tapered off. Hearing reports of 1-2" additonal last evening before transition to rain. If anyone wants to see pics and is on Fbook, check out Pa Grand Canyon Snowmobile club. I am webmaster and do the updates on FBook w/ another guy. You'll see some info I posted for trail conditions. You can also check out our web page for cameras of various locations, as I'm sure some may be scratching heads as to there being any snow in this horrid winter....but there is a little bit in norther tier.

7” at cabin. 10” on the ground.

Been watching this one for a while and think the bolded part has a good shot at verifying. Gut says you can add Tioga to Bradford counties as they may be big winners in northwoods, as deform bands have best shot at cranking there. Also think this has heartbreak written on if for those just east of the r/s line. I'll let you know what we got when i get home (or will post pics if i can).

Well stated.

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.

Id take null vs strong 6 in a heartbeat.....just sayin.

I feel the same way. I enjoy winter and the look of it. Snow falling is best, but as long as it sticks around...I can get over infrequent snows. Looking forward to this upcoming period and glad to see it growing legs.

and too much attention to the bong..........

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh

So basically you want us to just stop using a long range threat to discuss long range....??. While most know better than to trust much beyond 240, we are smart enough to see the signs of better things coming and are glad to share/discuss long range stuff in a long range thread. you’re always welcome in banter

Back to the 30” or meh mindset are we??

Thats a great setup if it happens. Just nice to see a transition away from this upcoming hot mess and a medley of workable looks on Ens guidance moving beyond D7

Yeah after the last few days, that seems to be the day we start back into a more wintery regime. Still noteabe differences between GFS Ens so takeaway is somethings likely changing, EPS seems a bit quicker, and looks workable as well once beyond next week. Hope so.

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case. Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit. While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best. Just a suggestion.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up.

Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now.