colonel717

No CMC keep that warm nose away. Uggh mix right over Bethel Park. and SAGC. Seems that CMC always does best sniffing out warm layers. Hope its wrong. Still did well. I would be more than happy with 10-12 inches.

Lake Erie almost fully frozen over.

Best GFS run yet. Inching better each run.

AIGFS held serve if not got slightly better.

Snow depth maps are terrible even in warm storms. 12+ on Kuchara.

NAM would have been a crusher. Looks like snow would start around 7pm Saturday.

Concerning? There is a decent number of lows big time west of us. I don't think this is far from being down trending.

Euro

I guess we may not want a full phase and pump the se ridge too much. Not sure if these big changes happen due to recon missions. I would hate to have 18 inches then rain on top making the snow so heavy. But I would love 18 inches... Gonna be anxious next few days wondering how each run will go. Guess gotta stay up for EURO.

Ukie. Ends as drizzle here. Crazy.

Sorry for your loss. Thanks for sharing. My father in law passed in Late November we were very close. He wasn't a snow lover though like your family. Prayers and blessings to you and your family.

Foot plus on both GFS and CMC. Super amped, almost too much.

Im on wxsphere mostly. If anyone wants to stop by. It's a lot of people from old AccuWeather forum. There are a few Yinzers on there.. https://www.wxsphere.com/forum/2-united-states/

With ratios could be 20+ inches in a few of these.

Agree, but the 12z lost it. Just was quickly saying it's back.

EURO north and has the backside snow.

That includes a couple inches for tomorrow. But nice jump north. As Miser said won't know for 3 days.

GFS and AI GFS made big jumps north.

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

Would be nice to pull in 3 inches tomorrow as an appetizer.

Here are several EPS members that with ratios would likely give us 1-2ft So there is some ability for this storm to improve.

NWS Pgh discussion Starting to hear alot of chatter about snow this weekend? Lets break down the forecast and discuss some potential outcomes, and have a moment to talk about forecast uncertainty: We like to think about the forecast as a train heading into the rail yard. You start on one track. As you go through time, that one track turns into two, then perhaps four, and eventually, you could end up with tens on potential tracks the train could take as it arrives. Lets think of these tracks as potential scenarios for the weather. You start off the forecast process right now on one track (there is really only one scenario for what's happening right now). Out a couple days, there may be a couple scenarios for what weather might happen. If you go out as far as 5-7 days, the forecast has a good deal of uncertainty with many potential scenarios. Ironically, much of the uncertainty in the weekend storm (most likely to happen between Saturday night and Monday) will come down to "tracks" (not the railroad ones). For simplicity, well break the storm potential down into three scenarios... Scenario #1: The storm track stays well to the south and the area ends up with very little to no snow. This would produce <1" of snow accumulations, if any. This scenario is around 20% likely at this point given current weather prediction guidance. While mostly dry, scenario would be the coldest (temperatures 20-30F below average). Scenario #2: The storm track forms to the south and then curves north as it heads towards the mid-Atlantic region. In this scenario, the region would see snow, but not the worst of the storm. This storm track would produce notable accumulations (likely >1" but <6"). This scenario is around 50% likely at this point given current weather prediction guidance. Scenario #3: The storm track forms to the south then curves up the spine of the Appalachians before reforming off the coast. In this scenario, the region would see the heaviest snow from the storm. This track would produce heavy accumulations (likely >6" to as much as 12"). But this scenario is 30% at this time given current weather prediction guidance. Given the current forecast, here's what we know right now: eastern Ohio and northwest PA have the lowest probability of warning criteria snow (>6"), while the ridges of PA/WV have the highest probability of warning criteria snow). Remember, staying in tune with the forecast will be important, because as we draw closer, we will know more information and gather forecast confidence as we narrow down the amount of potential "tracks" and iron out more specific details of snow amounts and impacts.