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wxeyeNH

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Posts posted by wxeyeNH

  1. 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    My early impression is that '38 was significantly worse, though this was a strong hit.

    My guess is that Fiona had more time to become extratropical and traveled further north before land interaction.  The 38 hurricane was probably more tropical when it hit the south coast of NE. 

    • Like 1
  2. Best case (for those not wanting a strong storm) is for the core to stay far enough west of Florida and the storm slowing down considerably and weakening.  Lots of dry continental air could wrap in.  I don't see a strong trough yanking this northward up the east coast unlike what is happening now with Fiona. 

     

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  3. 98L surface circulation looks good this afternoon.  NE wind shear from the outflow of Fiona is blowing thunderstorms off to the SW.  That shear will start weakening and then we should be off to the races.  If there is any trend in the models today it would seem that this system might be tracking a bit further north as it approaches the West Caribbean.   The Euro also has that trough over the Great Lake area a bit sharper and digging a bit further south.  So perhaps a track further up the coast verses a slowing and weakening system at landfall down south somewhere.  That is at least my take in the situation.  Levi on Tropical Tidbits has a new discussion out.  I think it was created before the 12Z Euro run.

  4. Looks like the town of Port Hawkesbury would be the place to go to chase.  Population 3200.  West end of Cape Bretton Island.  To get the full effect you want to be just east of the eye so the south wind can blast you.  Still time for a road trip to get there.  

     

     

    Screenshot 2022-09-21 155803.jpg

  5. 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    It’s truly extraordinary to see this kind of stuff so close to an event. Even if it’s 20mb too deep, I think it’d be an all time record for the region.
     

    ch3T166.png

    I just Googled it.  948mb Hurricane Ginny in 1963 was the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in Canada.  Wow, if this is right

  6. Speaking of intense hurricanes,  Fiona looks like it is going to be quite the blow to the Maritimes.  I don't know accurate the GFS is with hurricane intensity  so far north but 929mb around landfall is very impressive.  Lucky for us that hook was not further west.

     

    Screenshot 2022-09-21 122226.jpg

    • Like 1
  7. The island of Puerto Rico has lost 100% of it's power a few hours ago.  3.2 million people.  The power grid is fragile after Maria 5 years ago but it still is amazing that the entire island is out with only the south coast getting hurricane gusts.

  8. 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

    For a big storm in New England (wind) the storm center has to stay west.  The other factor is that a storm starts weakening north of the Carolina's so you need a strong trough to the west to yank it north very quickly. 

    At least this is something to watch although what could go wrong? Dry air, wind shear, islands with mountains, high pressure and trough location and only 270 hours out.

  9. 12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

    Screenshot 2022-09-14 125544.jpg

    • Like 2
  10. 3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    Hope the latest HRRR is right. Only 0.22" from the morning meh.

    Exactly the same here.  64/61, cool refreshing air.  I would think severe would have a hard time getting here unless the warm front can make some progress north in the next few hours.

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