Thundersnow12

I'm still laughing at this 

13 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

HRRR on the move back north, with each run, FWIW...

Yeah the 6z Euro and the 11z HRRR jumped north to join the RAP which has been fairly steady all night. As mentioned the 6z nest is decent enough too. 

Yeah 21z RAP fighting the good fight 

17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS...

Fire everyone at NCEP. Literally everyone and bring in Joe and Alek and let them head it up. 

51 minutes ago, Baum said:

so the RAP is right.

But Joe said no snow. Poor Joe. Can’t win ‘em all 

Euro is not pretty and SE of the 18z run. 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously how quickly it changes over remains to be seen, but even putting 1-3" in the bank would be a nice little start given the uncertainty after that.

Joe said it's all sleet so not allowed to be snow. 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

 

I don't know what I would do without you 

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Those weird initial fake snows are showing up on various guidance.

Yeah more so on newer runs it seems. 3z RAP with advisory level amounts across northeast IL from that alone 

Just now, Hoosier said:

Actually retains good totals in Chi metro though.

That early stuff is probably a mirage so toss that but yeah still a respectable hit across the metro. Better off using 12hr totals to get rid of that weird initial fake snows. 

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

This will come off as an imby weenie post, but think some of the worst conditions could be somewhere nearby where there is an overlap between the higher snow amounts and some enhanced gustiness downwind of Lake Michigan.

Nah I agree and that lines up with where the HRRR has some of the stronger gusts 

From a local Chi metro standpoint, the NAM bumped NW with totals in that area compared to the 18z run. 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z NAM looks similar to 18z run.


.

Yeah sfc low even a smidge stronger by 21z Thursday compared to previous run 

If anything the NAM is slightly stronger with the srn stream ejecting wave by 18z Thursday but the trof coming across the Dakotas/upper lakes is a bit tad further SE this run; 

Obviously it's an outlier but the HRRR verbatim would meet blizzard warning criteria across northeast IL and northwest IN late Thursday afternoon into evening. 

0z HRRR is going to be NW of the 18z run lol 

Slight bump in totals across the Chi metro 

4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I remember when Hoosier found the developmental RUC (old name of the RAP for you young kids) that ran out to 36 hours or something. Him and thundersnow12 posted that sh*t constantly in every storm.  

Hey, that did pretty well with GHD I lol, I still have those images saved somewhere. 

"The RAP was good inside 51hrs". God NCEP blows 

LOT issued watches 

Not a big seasonal trends guy and each event is different but what a stinker of a seasonal trend lol

18z NAM looks like it’ll come south. 
 

Live look at the King 

Always forget Ohio is even a thing until someone from Ohio posts 

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hrrr goin south

South stank for sure 

**Inserts Vince Carter gif**