Thundersnow12

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro gonna step south?

Little step south for the graspers and those who need 2-5" along I-88 to verify. 

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

you're out in denver now, eh?

should connect with @Thundersnow12. he's at kden.

Pass 

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

for mby always but ride or die obv, about to reel this one in

ORD vs DIA total is a good bet who gets more lol 3-5”ish for us later tonight with some post frontal jet banded snows. As temps crash below 0 

Is Alek still riding his 5” call for ORD? 

11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

.

Model trend gif courtesy of Thundersnow12 

Popping in for Alek’s first and final call 

0z weenie HRRR run for ORD. Nearly 1.25” of QPF.


.

3 hours ago, Baum said:

Wonder who the next Met in the office gets to unravel "The Full Izzi" ? 

Fidel Castro. Yankees losing tonight coupled with early season cold gets the Napervillian cranky.

16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

While the ECMWF/EPS combo certainly tends to verify better in the medium-long range, still too far out to be completely confident in what the last few full runs (00z last night and 12z today) have been showing. That said, the Euro really does mute the heat and humidity locally for several days after Tuesday.

I'm bearish on even the guidance with more extended heat and humidity being supportive of meaningful severe threats locally, so imo after the mostly miserable past 5-6 weeks, bring on what the Euro is showing Wednesday-Friday next week. The far northwest parts of the sub could get some action closer to the better mid-level flow and upper support and a less dry and capped column.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Just go with whatever Joe thinks. Gospel 

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

18z HRRR

The HRRR had the snow farther south earlier this morning, but it has trended north toward the other models.  Cyclone and I may end up just barely south of the 1-4" snow band.

Ride it 

Nice step made on the 0z GFS.

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

someone is going to surprise big time. Mchenry county?

HRRR with a random jackpot up there

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Thanks friend

Don't worry. Joe called the severe thunderstorm watch last night way overzealous and the entire CWA ends up seeing warnings and scattered 60-80mph gusts. Big L.

6z HRRR came in little juicer for Chi metro. Setting the stage for ISC to be too low again. Eek that guy. They should hire Alek 

Yeah ice is awesome. 

KMDW 172314Z 34017KT 1/8SM R31C/2400V3000FT +SN FZFG VV007 M05/M07 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/2255 DRSN P0001 T10501072

KORD 172251Z 35018G26KT 1/4SM R10L/2800V3500FT +SN VV008 M06/M09 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 01028/2154 SLP135 DRSN SNINCR 1/2 P0002 T10611089

3.1” total in Batavia and some of the heaviest snow I can remember. Has to be close to 2”/hr rates in that band 

Yeah the King is back to being dead. RAP is the new hotness 

Mesoscale Discussion 0147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central into northern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 172117Z - 172315Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected to
   continue for at least a few more hours across central into northern
   Illinois. Up to 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible with the
   heaviest bands.

   DISCUSSION...KLOT and KILX dual-polarimetric radar data and surface
   observations have shown moderate to heavy snow falling across
   central into northern IL over the past few hours. While the 850 mb
   cyclone centered over the IL/IN continues to propagate northeast,
   away from the mid Mississippi Valley area, 20Z mesoanalysis
   continues to show modest 700 mb WAA and associated frontogenesis
   taking place across central into northern IL, where a saturated,
   sub-freezing troposphere is in place. The WAA and frontogenesis will
   continue to foster efficient dendrite growth within a
   southwest-northeast oriented snow band across central into northern
   IL for at least a few more hours, where moderate to heavy snow is
   expected. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany stronger
   portions of the snow band.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2022

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna be virtually impossible to accurately measure this stuff.  One of those take your best measurement storms and check nearby reports to see if it jives.

Barb will be coming to a house near you 

3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Drifting is gonna be bad. Not a wet snow like LOT was thinking…

Was thinking the same given sfc temps in burbs 

Snowing decently in Elburn 

DVN radar actually looks p solid 

15z RAP has to be absolute best weenie case for Chi metro. 4-6” from north to south. Been very consistent though since late last night showing 3-4”+ for the area