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Thundersnow12

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Everything posted by Thundersnow12

  1. Thundersnow12
    Verbatim the 0z Euro looks quite good next Sun-Tues (day 7-9) more so Mon/Tues across the srn plains..
  2. Thundersnow12
    My second trip leaves Friday and after a little break of model watching, I finally looked this morning.. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS have me cautiously optimistic for some good chances across the nrn plains beginning as early as Monday possibly but hopefully getting even better just after that.
  3. Thundersnow12
    Yep Victor and I have been loving Tueday down there. Anytime you get 60 dews in NM with solid shear, look out. We each have seen tornadoes on 5/19 in three different years
  4. Thundersnow12
    Yeah GFS ensembles are trying to latch onto the next weekend trough, maybe Thur-Sat or Fri-Sun before Memorial day and the 12z op Euro has it too.
  5. Thundersnow12
    The 0z Euro itself for Saturday does look pretty ominous even though it has the morning round convection, destabilizes behind into across north TX into western/sw OK with 4000 j/kg and dew points in the low 70's as that jet comes across. Our trip is probably going to leave very early Friday morning if something like the NAM ends up verifying for that afternoon/evening.
  6. Thundersnow12
    Yeah it really does look great beginning around 5/16 or a day after. The agreement continues to improve too. Loop the 0z GFS ensemble spaghetti plots on our CoD site. Good agreement right through day 9. The best thing is you get a good EML going during that period and the GOM just floods open as you keep reloading the west.
  7. Thundersnow12
  8. Thundersnow12
    Really impressive op GFS run tonight in la la land FWIW from about 5/17-5/21 and would continue after that. Finally a run which has been hinted at from ensembles.
  9. Thundersnow12
    I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.
  10. Thundersnow12
  11. Thundersnow12
    Yeah I gotta say I'm getting pretty excited for how our trip (5/15-5/24) is looking right now.
  12. Thundersnow12
    He will also be going above normal for the week to follow that as well.
  13. Thundersnow12
    The CFS is changing run to run and even isn't in line with the GFS/Euro. Victor Gensini and myself are heading up trip 2 with CoD and we leave 5/15 and we both think it looks quite good at this stage and are very optimistic.
  14. Thundersnow12
    another beauty off the coast of BC
  15. Thundersnow12
    awesome picture to clearly see the snow level.
  16. Thundersnow12
    awesome vis sat view of the big system off the coast of BC
  17. Thundersnow12
    good lord that is an awesome picture.
  18. Thundersnow12
    still my biggest cap bust to date. what a let down day.
  19. Thundersnow12
    agreed, 4500 j/kg of MLCAPE and an LI of -11 by noon is quite impressive and something I've never seen.
  20. Thundersnow12
    Thank you sir!
  21. Thundersnow12
    Haha Chi Storm and I were chasing that day in central IL, never knew it had that much juice...explains why that storm went nuts in a short period of time and one of the most crazy lighthing shows I've ever seen.
  22. Thundersnow12
    Some other big CAPE days that come to memory.. 6/17/09 in NE 6/18/09 in IA 5/22/10 in SD
  23. Thundersnow12
    I know we probably won't see an event like last weds again in our lifetime with the mix of high instability (>3000 j/kg) and insane 0-6km shear (60-80kts) and low-level shear (0-1km SRH 600-1000 m2/s2) but I'd be curious what a discrete supercell does in a tornado-like shear environment with 7000 j/kg of CAPE. Cause 8/4/08 didn't have the siggy tor shear.
  24. Thundersnow12
    21st bday little extra pep in my step lol
  25. Thundersnow12
    I thought of two days immediately when I saw this with one being the Roanoke day that Hoosier mentioned and the other being 8/4/08 from DVN and ILX roab soundings with the 2nd one from ILX just huge....the most I've ever seen, amazing.
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