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Thundersnow12

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Everything posted by Thundersnow12

  1. Thundersnow12
    North of DBQ ends up the jackpot zone with 20" between both systems. Half inch for ORD. A nice nickel and dimer
  2. Thundersnow12
    GEFS mean and members look like they made a small jump to the Euro camp and as posted, the 12z GEM jumped more towards the Euro.
  3. Thundersnow12
    2-5" swath verbatim from STL to Chi metro
  4. Thundersnow12
    Hot look
  5. Thundersnow12
    Euro crushes parts of IA/MN with a blizzard before Halloween and probably severe with upper 60 dews getting into srn IL and north of the OH River.
  6. Thundersnow12
    12z GFS with first sticking snow day before Halloween
  7. Thundersnow12
    Weird looking at GEFS member snow accumulations this early in the season
  8. Thundersnow12
    Has been some very interesting GEFS members the last 36 hours or so
  9. Thundersnow12
    https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north
  10. Thundersnow12
    No talk of tomorrow? ND looks good tomorrow and eyeing srn MN myself on Wednesday
  11. Thundersnow12
    Victor Gensini and I have 5/14-5/25 blocked off for a trip to the plains, dependent on the pattern of course.
  12. Thundersnow12
    Victor Gensini and I are leading trip 3 with COD and we are out June 2nd-June 11th. Both optimistic as things look currently.
  13. Thundersnow12
    Departing Friday morning and probably chasing northeast/eastern NM on Saturday then some better days to follow across the plains. We'll see how the models shake out
  14. Thundersnow12
    Leaving on CoD's trip 2 next Friday.. 12z op GFS run looks like it came around to the GEFS members idea the last several runs of a good trof signal by next weekend and the week beginning 5/16 along with a good EML being able to come out with an open Gulf. We will see how things shake out but I'm fairly optimistic
  15. Thundersnow12
    Yeah the 12z Euro looks pretty nasty on Tuesday from srn KS to the Red River, dryline stays west of I-35 with 55kt flow at H5, upper 60 dews and 3,000-4,000 J/kg.
  16. Thundersnow12
    Verbatim the 0z Euro looks quite good next Sun-Tues (day 7-9) more so Mon/Tues across the srn plains..
  17. Thundersnow12
    My second trip leaves Friday and after a little break of model watching, I finally looked this morning.. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS have me cautiously optimistic for some good chances across the nrn plains beginning as early as Monday possibly but hopefully getting even better just after that.
  18. Thundersnow12
    Yep Victor and I have been loving Tueday down there. Anytime you get 60 dews in NM with solid shear, look out. We each have seen tornadoes on 5/19 in three different years
  19. Thundersnow12
    Yeah GFS ensembles are trying to latch onto the next weekend trough, maybe Thur-Sat or Fri-Sun before Memorial day and the 12z op Euro has it too.
  20. Thundersnow12
    The 0z Euro itself for Saturday does look pretty ominous even though it has the morning round convection, destabilizes behind into across north TX into western/sw OK with 4000 j/kg and dew points in the low 70's as that jet comes across. Our trip is probably going to leave very early Friday morning if something like the NAM ends up verifying for that afternoon/evening.
  21. Thundersnow12
    Yeah it really does look great beginning around 5/16 or a day after. The agreement continues to improve too. Loop the 0z GFS ensemble spaghetti plots on our CoD site. Good agreement right through day 9. The best thing is you get a good EML going during that period and the GOM just floods open as you keep reloading the west.
  22. Thundersnow12
  23. Thundersnow12
    Really impressive op GFS run tonight in la la land FWIW from about 5/17-5/21 and would continue after that. Finally a run which has been hinted at from ensembles.
  24. Thundersnow12
    I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.
  25. Thundersnow12
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