CarlislePaWx

Snow slowly increasing in intensity, to the point where real accumulations are taking place, albeit a few tenths.  Temp 30, DP 26.8, Wet bulb 28.8.  I'll have my first formal ob at 11:00.

Light snow with small flakes began about 10 minutes ago.  Thanks to temps around 20 for a good portion of the night, everything is caving.  Temp up to 30 with dew point of 26.  Wet bulb is 27.9 so that's the lowest it could drop if it starts snowing mod to heavy.

NWS point and click for me now says 4 to 8 this afternoon with 1 to 2 additional tonight for possible total of 5-10".  We'll see...

At midnight with still totally clear skies and calm winds I'm at my low of the day at 20 with a dew point of 18.  I honestly did not expect temps to drop this low before clouds coming in.  The 20 degrees was the new low for the day as my overnight low was 21.6.  Now I get to have two days in a row with a low of at least 20, which is only around 2 degrees below normal for me.

The clouds will stop the drop in temps, but that doesn't matter because they've dropped to within 2 degrees of the dew point, so near saturation.  Because it will be overcast by sunrise, we don't have to worry about the sun.  See you all in the morning.  I'll be reporting in with my hourly obs throughout the day.  Good night.

21.6 / 19 with crystal clear skies.  

slowing down the descent, but still dropping.  Now at 23/19.

Down to 25/20.  

Just took an updated look at my NWS forecast and they have taken rain out of the forecast and now have all snow with a range of 4 to 9 inches.  Encouraging.news.

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I understand, I was being sarcastic about WB's totals which are dubious at times. 

I would think he would use WB data since he is the founder and owner of Weather Bell.  (I'm sure you already know that but others around here might not.)

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll take a blend of the 18z GFS, Icon & RGEM!

This is another GFS view

Interesting differences between WB and Pivotal algorithms.

Here's Pivotal:

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, you are correct...at the same time, this map does not include the entirety of next week's storm. 

So I guess for now we're both half-right?

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday:

Correct me if I'm wrong but this qpf map includes the upcoming weekend storm.  7-day qpf.  That helps take some of the melting sting out of the rain.

This run puts DC back in the game, going from less than an inch back up to around 6.  I do hope for their sake that they get to join the party.

I guess I overreacted a little when I saw the low head east from Norfolk.  That position was so much further south than the other runs and models that showed it east of the DelMarVa.  

The whole presentation seems whacked, moreso than 18z, and yet Lanco takes the prize (this run).

Don't throw it out...lol.  Somehow it gives LSV 4-8" by 18z Sunday.

heads out to sea from southern VA coast.  Now that's a drastic change.  Throw it out?

GFS axis of heaviest moves south and east by quite a bit.  Uh-oh

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify.  Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort.   Almost no snow for MA cities. 

 

@Bubbler86You're speaking about a changeover (although not precisely where), but I'll assume SE LSV / Lanco.  However, none of my precip-type maps show any changeover anywhere in this region for any period of this storm.  Please specify where/what you meant regarding said changeover.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That's probably the most realistic part of that map.

Well, it is certain to change 6 hours from now.  So, for the moment, I can reminisce back to 2016 and 2010.  Meanwhile DC went from 15" down to 5".  I feel for them. 

Adams / Cumberland bullseye of 20 - 23"...hah!

Merry Christmas to all, coming from central Cumberland county.  As soon as there is accumulating white stuff outside, you'll see much more of me.  I can't believe that right now as I look up to the mainly overcast skies, that tiny spots of blue are peeking through, and the sun is making an appearance.

Good morning all...

Managed to get down to 21.9 around 7:45am, and have sky-rocketed up 10 degrees since then with a current temp of 32.0 degrees.

Well I've been waiting to see if any of the radar echoes would pass over me, and at 12:25 the first flurries of the season are flying through the air.  Way too light for anything to stick, although my temp has just dropped back from 34 to 31.6.  Woo-hoo!

Guys...I'm surprised  the wind event I had wasn't experienced by more of you.  I saw Canderson's comment.  Honestly, I don't think I've ever experienced something quite like what happened here a few hours ago when that pretty strong cell moved due north up from Adams.  There was no lightning.  There was no thunder.  It wasn't even completely overcast.  When I heard the roar outside I was surprised.  I went outside and watched the 80-foot tall trees in my backyard bending like never before.  Fortunately the winds were coming out of the south, which is also a bit unusual.  I knew right away that  30-40mph sustained winds with gusts to over 50 were suddenly upon me.  I figured, alright, this will only last a couple of minutes.  But, it kept going.  The noise was amazing.  Within 5 minutes the rain began and the wind just kept on going.  There were momentary lulls, of course, but the event lasted easily for 15 minutes or more.  I just wish I had better wind exposure for my anemometer.  The back of my house faces north.  That means the most blocked direction for winds is when they are out of the south.  So, I recorded a whopping 9 mph on my Ambient, and 12mph on my Tempest.  The temperature fell rapidly again, just like yesterday, from near 90 all the way down to 67 in about 10 minutes.  I haven't had time to look online for the data, but I don't know if a severe thunderstorm warning had been issued for this.  Again, not one lightning bolt or clap of thunder through the entire event.  Amazing!  Fortunately, no damage from the high winds.