nrgjeff

Vols are still in it! Sweet 16. One of my brackets is doing well, but it requires Tennessee to the Final Four. The others are bust.

In other news, the Central/West and Ohio Valley both lack total eclipse threads for April 8. What a pity! New England has a thread, but I sure hope it's clear much closer.
We had a thread going two years before August 2017. Who started it? Thank you! Search is acting up now. Tennessee Valley remains the best Region!

Thursday sky definitely had a fall feel. I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah it was the smoke. 
Friday we are back in business with a proper deep blue sky. 

True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley.

15 hours ago, BNAwx said:

..One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter….

But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season. 

Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball. 

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. 
There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. 
If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often. 

Good to read reports of lightning and thunder. We can settle the mid-term debate in the pinned thread. Snow before the season ends!

Indeed @Itryatgolf70 this unusual combo of -PDO and El Nino has been fickle. It's how we get a great storm track, but putting cold air in place is like pulling teeth - without Novocain. 

Cold core setups do weird things, but often photogenic things.

Saturday on the hardwood Eve. Tennessee goes on the road in what's pretty much a must win game. Gotta get Ws on the road. Kentucky will win hosting Gonzaga. Kansas will win hosting Baylor. 

Alabama and Auburn are both on the road. I have no idea. Couple other Big 12 games that might be interesting are TCU at Iowa St. and Oklahoma bedlam.

The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news.

Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. 

Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite.

I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active. 

The next snow is always 3 weeks away, kind of like the next Kansas road win.

South Carolina played dirty, but UT needs to play through that. Oh I have my own problems. Kansas may look invincible at home, but can't win against Q3 on the road. 

As for the NCAA I've long called it Nazi Commies Against Athletes. It's corrupt, power hungry, greedy, and doesn't want to share with the athletes. 

I thought Kansas was inconsistent.

4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Kentucky is a head scratcher. Got smoked last night by an average SC team whose best player would start on UK’s team.

Then Kentucky is like, hold my beer!

Tonight Alabama and Auburn should be interesting. Hopefully high scoring. So Tennessee has the whole week off? Should be well rested for Saturday. 

Big ol' Siberian high invaded China. They have racked up above normal snow cover now. High press extends over the Pole to Alaksa.

However a big ol' GOA Low is grinding away. Could get cold again in 2-3 weeks. Fow now, Hurry Up And Wait!  

   
 

Yeah that's a dubious stat. 

On 1/21/2024 at 7:44 PM, Carvers Gap said:

I put this in the pattern discussion thread, but it is worth a mention in the obs thread.

From MRX on social media...

Knoxville has so far confirmed 6 consecutive days with 4" or more of snow on the ground. This is tied with February 2-7, 1996 as the most consecutive days with 4" or more of snow depth with data going back to 1910. At our office, the same is true, but our data only goes back to the 1995-1996 winter. When looking at 6" or greater depth, Knoxville confirmed 4 consecutive days, which is the 2nd longest in the 114-year period of snow depth data. #mrxwx

Anytime from the late 60s to early 80s we had the -PDO and -AMO which is ideal for low latitude winter storms. Basically dig the jet stream south coast to coast. I agree with @John1122 something is awry.

I'm on board with the consensus climate science, but the community must do better with so-called data quality control. Stuff like this seeds doubt in the data, and then doubt in future predictions. Burden of proof is still on us scientists, even if we're very confident. 

Tennessee is ranked above Kansas this week! KU has played a couple dreadful road games. Tennessee really handled Alabama. Yeah it was at home, but the Vols would have smoked them on the road playing that well. Kentucky shows some high-power offense like we have not seen in a few years. Defense is TBD. Auburn could also make a statement in the SEC.

Some of the best weeks of the year are upon us. Time to dig into the heart of college conference basketball season!

Looks like a mild two or three weeks. Two weeks straight warm is tough to do this time of year. Perhaps a pair of 5-7 day warm periods with a cool sandwiched in between. 

High latitude ridging has sloshed back and fourth between Greenland and Scandanavia on a 4-6 week cycle since Thanksgiving. We'd be due for another cold period the back half of February. Cold wouldn't have the punch after 15 Feb. However it could get cold enough for winter precip. 

Honestly I could use the break now. Enjoy some Conference college basketball as we dig into the heart of the conference season. 

Last visit and post for the night. @Chattownsnow and @Uncle Nasty I think the chart above from @TellicoWx eases the Chattanooga anxiety a little bit. We should be able to avoid a Dallas Cowboys style melt-down.

I'll feel better when I see snow falling. Warm air is hanging tough in KCHA but we're always the last to cool off. Already snowing in Knoxville. LOL Chatty. Back to the game! 

No I think you're OK. 

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail?  LOL.

In fact that forecast is so nutty that I should feel better down here too.

Cynicism aside, this snow event should work out. Pattern recognition is that the reinforcing Arctic front will anchor the cold. Isentropic lift with mid-level front is near ideal. NAM has its strengths with robust waves, but this isn't that. I may eat my words, but I think everything will work out. 

PS the Paul Barys post shows up now. Yeah that is about what I'm thinking locally. Time to relax for a bit. I'll be back later. 

KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau.

That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. 

Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol!

What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy?

Beginning of precip will provide much needed information in Chattanooga. See were our wet bulb and dry bulb go. I'm pouring a drink. Will we toast in happiness or rage drink?

Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. 

High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. 

I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015.

So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.
Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse

26 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I agree this is the setup where most should score with little harm from thermal layers off a setup we have waited for ...... for a LONG time.  It's not like we have a wrapped up negative tilt system coming at us.   What do you think about the modeling consistently showing a warm nose/downslope up the western side of the apps into NE TN?   I don't want to assume, but would guess you think this is overdone, solely based on the setup?

Some downslope warming is possible on the front side of the system. However I don't think it'd be a deal killer. Maybe cut rates for a couple hours. If it even happens, start snowing, ease up, then get back at it second half. Kind of like Tennessee basketball, ha!
Otherwise, box to wire snow.

NAM seems a little off this setup. We got the gentle isentropic upglide we all been wishing for since 2015.

Energy for our system is just getting onshore in the Pac NW. Looks like the 18Z NAM is a little south (John, Carvers posts above) and the NAM will get more of the Pac NW wave on the 00Z run. Hopefully the NAM will settle in with the Globals.

I'm cautiously optimist about Chattanooga. Cold air should be in place. A brief mix is possible due to low level temps, but this feels like an all snow event. Energy sliding up from the Deep South with isentropic lift is hard for even KCHA to screw up. Fingers crossed

Little concern elsewhere. Looks like a gem coming for much of us!

Winter Storm Watch SOP allows up to 48 hours out. They're using all of it! 3-8 inches on a Day 3 forecast in the South. Though the Mid South would be the place to forecast it.

Farther east I'm not particularly concerned about the NAM 60-84 hours. That far out the Globals should still offer greater value. I'm always concerned about Chattanooga, but not because of the NAM. 

Charts above are how to get proper snow across the entire Tennessee Valley including southeast Tenn.

Take a break tonight for SEC basketball action. Tennessee leads off early. Georgia and Ole' Miss are both getting points at home. Kansas is on too, along with other Big 12.