nrgjeff

I am about to rage about the odd ball streaming games. Sports has become an even more crooked hack. Time to go back into the archive. All this Spanish eclipse stuff has me reflecting on 2017 and 2024 in the USA.

Things should heat up soon from MRX to TRI, eventually unzippering through Knox and Chatt. Monday Aug. 17

The SPC bumped up wind to 30% (not shown) but it is still Slight because no hatch. We'll see if 30% verifies. Requires the said multiple bowing segments. Otherwise 15% would do. I suspect any bowing segment would provide some nice photography. Just don't get struck by lightning. This airmass (very deep CAPE) has promoted prolific lightning for a week now. 

Frankly I'd rather talk eclipses instead of hot weather, lol! Yeah the lunar eclipse Aug. 27-28 is happening Time and Date dot com also has good info. 

Perhaps unpopular take, but I believe lunar eclipses are very under-rated. I'm not gonna sit here and say they compete with total solar or bright Aurora; they don't. But I'm gonna say a deep / total lunar eclipse competes with comets and other astro-treats. I prefer a lunar eclipse over structure only storm chase, perhaps even over brief tornado. 

Then while with solar, it's 100% total or nothing!  ..Lunar is different. Deep partial with long diamond ring phase is really gorgeous. With solar the diamond can't compete with Totality. Lunar is different.. I love a 95-98% partial. Had that back in 2022 and it was stunning. Finally, clouds are more forgiving. We got about an hour vs 2-4 precious minutes. 

From @KakashiHatake2000 above originally Met Eric Snitil.

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting.

My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.

Still had high clouds before Midnight. I did not wake up before dawn to check again. Normally I would check at that 3am pee break but I never woke up. 

12 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Anybody able to see the persids meteor shower was able to see it looking north north east streaks in the sky every few to several minutes

I mention times after Midnight because it is our most favorable angle. At 3am the dark side of the Earth is speeding forward. Early evening we face backward. The later times forward face theoretically makes more meteors visible. However the biggest, brightest, longest fireball in my life was mid-evening and not during any advertised meteor shower.

Then I saw the total eclipse video from Spain. I'm surprised how impactful it was that late in the day and low in the sky. Wish I'd been there. We are waiting for 2027, Europe and North Africa's eclipse of the century. Some great climo but poor geopolitical risks. Yesterday would have worked really well anywhere in Spain. So, I'll be eclipse neurotic for the next almost 12 months.

I could see that in Denver or Cheyenne in Sept.

On 8/10/2026 at 2:43 PM, dwagner88 said:

Interesting point forecast for Friday.

Meanwhile for Tennessee all I see through next week is teaser fronts on MCS outflow, quickly retreating north to the Ohio River or farther. If the ECMWF is right we get a Tuesday tease next week. Then, back to the blast furnace! 

yeah @Weatheriscool our lawn has been remarkably green since it started raining again in late July. 'Twas getting pretty brown before July 4. Quite the reverse of most summers. 

We'll see how long it lasts, ha!

Yes it only takes one storm to make a season in the South. Perfect overrunning, a bowling ball, or an actual open wave bomb. Yeah, the latter seems less likely every year, but the other two still happen. 

Then it depends on location. 2025 was a rare, great winter for Chattanooga. January featured back-to-back snows including one that way overachieved by not going to ice sooner. Rest of the forum seemed unimpressed by their event(s).

But yeah, my main forecast is warm and rainy with occasional severe weather. Long time readers are used to my severe saber rattling. 

Maybe @KakashiHatake2000. Their afternoon text mentions conditional instability. Might come south a wee bit if the temp fcst gets warmer, but the turning is better north. I also infer they thought about 5% up there in Kentucky or IN/OH near the TP, but held off. Probably a Day 1 call this time of year. Things are not synoptically evident Day 2 in meso-scale season. If time were not an issue, Dayton OH would be a lovely starting point.

That's go to Crossville and ask questions later. Official does not get down there, but it's only 90 minutes for me to get up there. If the line really does re-develop east of Nashville, that's prime for it to reach the Plateau as it's maturing. That part of Kentucky is doable too, but farther to drive. Doable is relative in the South - some breaks vs straight forest and mountains. 

3 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Day two risk is out for 5-15% damaging wind and 2% tornado that is a hair thin but there in TN.

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather!

My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day!

The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts)

• Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.  A tornado or two is possible

My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this!

August could be a good night sky month is the clouds cooperate. Jax got the Perseids above. Fond memories of summer come to mind. Too bad the kids are in school by then now days. Peak is spread out a few days per the video, so maybe catch a dark rural sky on a weekend. 

Next we have a near total lunar eclipse the night of Aug. 27-28. The 96% lunar is gorgeous with an extended diamond ring phase where one side is lighter. Of course it's not as spectacular as a solar diamond ring, but at the same time I believe lunar eclipses are severely underrated. In contrast to solar, where I'm a Total or Nothing mentality, deep lunar eclipses are arguably as gorgeous as full lunar. 

Hopefully by then we've also had a couple early season fronts. Might not cool down much, but take the edge off the humidity. Occasionally NW flow on weekly progs would help the cloud issue for astronomy too. Afternoon t-storm cloud debris tends to clear sooner. 

Wow you've been hosed @dwagner88 we have done pretty well since June IMBY. I remember you moved though. 

Post frontal in Chattanooga feels so wonderful! Still dew 70+ but it's cloudy with a north breeze. Staying cloudy post frontal feels great in summer. Could be a preview of El Nino though. For now, focus on the good today. And think of football season!

Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream. 

El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).

It's still got a snow tag. Might as well add winter, lol! Perhaps that's just to make us feel less hot right now.

After the severe today they have flash flood risk for Wednesday. Can't argue with a front stalling. What else do they do in July? Got a tropical system far enough away to be no threat, but it still helps pump in moisture. Ambient moisture is enough anyway. These dewpoints are ludicrous even for July!

Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%.

Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable. 

Summer of '57 is a bit before my time but I know KCMO had terrible flooding. Mercifully that's not the case this year. That said, parts of the Midwest have experienced flooding this summer. 

On 7/7/2026 at 2:58 PM, Scottie16 said:

Carver, John or Jeff. The summer of 57’ seems to be more in line of what we’re seeing now with the strong El Niño bedded with the severe drought until the Jet stream took over and most areas saw flooding in early fall.

AO for 57’ in July was near neutral
NAO was slightly negative to neutral

I think we are steering more towards 1957/1997 lane as of now but I’m not on the same level on understanding these things like you guys are. What thoughts do you have on this?
.

Summer of '97 was meh heat in the Plains. Y'all have to refresh my memory here. Let's see what the next 2-3 weeks brings out there. 

I'll take the other side of that. Kalshi and Poly both have weather I believe. Even saw it on Draft Kings predictions, which could be dangerous lol!

These dewpoints are simply unacceptable at these temps. Qatar World Cup weather is not what we need for ours!

The only acceptable place for such temps/dews is chasing Bangladesh and with a proper hodograph. Otherwise it ain't right anywhere!

I figure with more thunderstorms the humidity will hold in. Now looks like at least low 90s highs drags into next week. Heat index will stay 100 to 105. Guess after about a week of 110 that'll start to feel normal though. 

Until then enjoy the long weekend. Happy 250 America!

Not bad for a mid-summer easterly flow MCS. Usually 15% is it for wind. We'll see.

Models are always bad in mesoscale season, as you know. At least this website is back to normal speed.

Saturday had Crossville special written all over it. I gave up mid-afternoon after cells near Pikeville looked like crap. Then at sunset while I'm back home enjoying the World Cup, tornado warning Cumberland Co. What a hobby!

NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble?

Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious.

Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer.