nrgjeff

Chart is on the previous page. Strato warming is more likely to dump on Europe. I truly hope I'm wrong for the sake of Ukraine. Anyway SSWs typically impact Europe first. Esp now we also got a Scandinavia block. 

I'd love to be wrong. Maybe instead of a true PV split it'll just jostle and reflect for North America. If Europe first, and warm Eastern USA, I'll take severe wx thanks. We need the rain. Hope to see y'all in the severe thread soon!

Well we are starting to get a proper pressure signal in Asia, but the snow is AWOL. Pressure chart is below; pink circle is mine. Snow is not worth posting.

Noth America screams, vortex is bottled up. No cold up there and no mechanism to deliver anyway. Continue very mild forecast at my shop.

Yeah what once looked somewhat promising now looks like trash for thunderstorm fans like me. Probably just cold rain on Election Day. Lovely.

I remain bearish despite SSW talk. First, the signal is better for Europe than it is for NA. Next, we've seen Novembers with such warmings go cold in Europe and keep Eastern US ridge. Couple good X accounts that post more Southeast AmWx had sources (on X). Anyway, I like the warm forecast, so I just liked and scrolled on. 

Some chatter about Arctic blocking and snow cover came up. Wrong pressure signal though. Eastern Siberia is low press. China is normal. For cold we want China low press and Siberia surface high. That's the cold building. Currently eastern Siberia snow build is not blocking, but storminess. Continue robust Pacific jet. Continue mild Southeast US.

Bonus: Scandinavia block could get more bullish for Europe. I hope not for their sake, and because one country keeps bombing civilian heating of another country that way.

Should be good at 1,000 to 1,500 FT this weekend. We wasted two perfect weekends for higher elevations, totally sunny. Too many activities with two kids. We're hoping for some local spots that are less crowded; but of course, rain is forecast this weekend!

One of my favorites of the year. Not too humid or too cold. Crisp fall air usually offers excellent visibility. Alas, I slept and yeah the Moon is a problem evenings. 

Looks like it's going to scrape the de facto independent country of Taiwan.

Google AI had it turning toward Japan the whole time. Traditional models had to fold their FuJian Province, China landfall. 

This is interesting because it's not a true China typhoon or a straight to Japan storm. They have opposite signs for the Southeast. Not only is the track in between; seasons are in between also. Signs flip in summer or winter. Of course no typhoons in winter, but MJO can echo the effect. So what will happen? 

I actually won't argue with a -NAO in a couple weeks. Unfortunately the PDO situation favors a Western US dump. East could escape. Heck even Europe could escape, but that also depends on a Scandinavia block. Can we order a Beast from the East for Russia that does not get into Ukraine? Like dealing cards, lol!

Oh my! That's a little far from the Tennessee Valley. Unlike with weather forecasts, some things are black and white right and wrong. I'll just leave it there.

Finally we got this.. That's not on phase with a China, but it sure ain't in the polar jet stream either!

I'm still beating up myself for not knowing. We were perfectly positioned on Hilton Head Island. Perfectly clear sky. Look up and see the Milky Way without time to adjust. 

I was truly shocked how the cold rushed over the Plateau during the day! It was forecast, but seeing is believing. Takes me back to sudden Plains fropa and I loved it!

On 10/16/2026 at 4:00 PM, jaxjagman said:

Ha,cold front is in  East Tn,we dropped into the 50'S already before 3PM,would have liked to see some rain but will take the cooler temps

Then Jax's previous post.. If we play our cards right, that's severe weather in mid-November leading up to Thanksgiving depending on timing. Path from SER to BN heights, baring a stupid cap like last week, is severe wx. I infer southwest flow on the weekly products. 

We'll probably get periods of -NAO as the massive tropical warmth pushes poleward and tries to reflect back. However, cold air supply will be a problem. Fighting the PDO could be a problem. I'm still looking for a really mild winter. First for November, if any of these weekly products are even close.. tee up severe leading into Thanksgiving!

Interactive version is nice. My house is in the cone. What time is the Depression going to hit my house?
Anyway we got much needed rain after what I'd call a flash drought from Sept. Back to AN temps next week. Shocking!

Love to see this in January as a Miller A bomb comes out of the Gulf. Y'all were thinkin' it. Somebody had to say it! 

Isaias is teasing my winter tingles. 

I haven't looked at the QBO in a while, but it's bearish. Note that most of us agree it's not very reliable, so take it with less than a grain of salt.

@Carvers Gap I'm very sorry for your loss. Yeah both my parents have graduated to be with the Lord. However I still miss them every day. Gonna be a long road for you and family. Thinking of you and praying for your peace at this time. 

Yeah I remember my first weather radio was a clunky box. I believe I lost my second radio on top of a payphone during a storm chase about 30 years ago. Probably a few maps too. At least I've never lost an expensive camera that way!

ECMWF monthly clusters break down between cold, and quite mild. I lean toward the latter, but we can hope for the former. 

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore.

I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... 

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept.

Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below.

After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights. 

Time to get this thread going again. I still think it'll be a super mild winter. While the CFS and some AI stuff keeps going cold, I believe it's feedback on SUPER Nino. They are missing the flood of warmth in the ATMO. ECMWF trended warmer. Finally got a few minutes to look at precip. Obviously the last several weeks were nuts at work with a 100-year outlier extended heat-wave. 

February precip chart is my dream. Oh wait! You think I need my head examined for cheering BN precip? Reembmer snow holds much less liquid than rain. We got AN rain to our southeast with BN right over Tenn. I infer southern track storm systems. I infer snow in Feb. Temps are only normal, but that's enough with variability in Feb. 500 mb (not shown) screams southern track too.

ECMWF February precip, Sept. 5 forecast

More and more I think the rate of change can be as important or moreso than the index value itself. Definitely true with the QBO. Let's look at this WSJ chart for El Nino. Slope is greater than the other events of record. Calculus is back like the monster in the TV! I expect something new this El Nino.. er uh, well more crazy that's already in progress. 

This will be a good thread for things we can see from our mid-latitude region. For the Northern Lights, New England usually has a good discussion. 

For here, let this be the place for flybys, astronomical events, the night sky, photography, and the occasional comet. Now there is some guess-casting, ha!

I imagine seasonal models will start trending warmer. Right now we are before that infamous Halloween predictability barrier. Now models (as programmed) are amping up Nino response because Nino is on fire.

What's next? Warmer forecasts! ATMO has not followed teleconnections for years. First, the oceans are not absorbing heat. Marine heat waves are almost global. See Climate forum for more. Also the PDO remains out of whack. If we have warm Nino and -PDO it'll relentlessly flood the Lower 48 with mild air.

My forecast remains a top 10 warm winter. Warmest winter in recorded history is possible. 

Incredible instability will be available. Unfortunately 15% is probably a good forecast. I was hoping for 30% wind, mainly for QPF.

No turning with height, so those blobs are just beefy wind producers. No organized line. Derecho checklist is so far from being met that I'd say we meet the anti-derecho checklist. 

Simply nothing interesting in weather right now. When's the next comet or eclipse? We need some Northern Lights! 

I expect the hottest September on record. More mid-90s next week is just about enough to seal it - especially weighted toward AC use. But let's talk about simple temperatures. A brief mid-month front may give way to yet more SER activity. We can only hope it retrogrades a bit. Otherwise - hottest September in recorded history!

Wake me up on Halloween!

I have no optimism about winter based on any hot cold flip analog. I'd like to narrow it down to strong+ El Nino years. My thinking is the Atmo is just flooded with warm air. That PDO out of phase only adds it. Probably not SER all winter; that's Nina. Absurdly mild source regions +ABNA and a stormy STJ seem likely. We got a shot at the warmest winter in recorded history. I expect ZERO snow in Chatty, probably not even a trace.

I'm wall to wall blowtorch. Deep South severe all winter. Early season start to severe Mid-South. Of course the eastern Valley will find a way to be cool. Great for storm anxious, but just one more thing about which I will vent!

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)