nrgjeff

Interactive version is nice. My house is in the cone. What time is the Depression going to hit my house?
Anyway we got much needed rain after what I'd call a flash drought from Sept. Back to AN temps next week. Shocking!

Love to see this in January as a Miller A bomb comes out of the Gulf. Y'all were thinkin' it. Somebody had to say it! 

Isaias is teasing my winter tingles. 

I haven't looked at the QBO in a while, but it's bearish. Note that most of us agree it's not very reliable, so take it with less than a grain of salt.

@Carvers Gap I'm very sorry for your loss. Yeah both my parents have graduated to be with the Lord. However I still miss them every day. Gonna be a long road for you and family. Thinking of you and praying for your peace at this time. 

Yeah I remember my first weather radio was a clunky box. I believe I lost my second radio on top of a payphone during a storm chase about 30 years ago. Probably a few maps too. At least I've never lost an expensive camera that way!

ECMWF monthly clusters break down between cold, and quite mild. I lean toward the latter, but we can hope for the former. 

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore.

I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... 

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept.

Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below.

After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights. 

Time to get this thread going again. I still think it'll be a super mild winter. While the CFS and some AI stuff keeps going cold, I believe it's feedback on SUPER Nino. They are missing the flood of warmth in the ATMO. ECMWF trended warmer. Finally got a few minutes to look at precip. Obviously the last several weeks were nuts at work with a 100-year outlier extended heat-wave. 

February precip chart is my dream. Oh wait! You think I need my head examined for cheering BN precip? Reembmer snow holds much less liquid than rain. We got AN rain to our southeast with BN right over Tenn. I infer southern track storm systems. I infer snow in Feb. Temps are only normal, but that's enough with variability in Feb. 500 mb (not shown) screams southern track too.

ECMWF February precip, Sept. 5 forecast

More and more I think the rate of change can be as important or moreso than the index value itself. Definitely true with the QBO. Let's look at this WSJ chart for El Nino. Slope is greater than the other events of record. Calculus is back like the monster in the TV! I expect something new this El Nino.. er uh, well more crazy that's already in progress. 

This will be a good thread for things we can see from our mid-latitude region. For the Northern Lights, New England usually has a good discussion. 

For here, let this be the place for flybys, astronomical events, the night sky, photography, and the occasional comet. Now there is some guess-casting, ha!

I imagine seasonal models will start trending warmer. Right now we are before that infamous Halloween predictability barrier. Now models (as programmed) are amping up Nino response because Nino is on fire.

What's next? Warmer forecasts! ATMO has not followed teleconnections for years. First, the oceans are not absorbing heat. Marine heat waves are almost global. See Climate forum for more. Also the PDO remains out of whack. If we have warm Nino and -PDO it'll relentlessly flood the Lower 48 with mild air.

My forecast remains a top 10 warm winter. Warmest winter in recorded history is possible. 

Incredible instability will be available. Unfortunately 15% is probably a good forecast. I was hoping for 30% wind, mainly for QPF.

No turning with height, so those blobs are just beefy wind producers. No organized line. Derecho checklist is so far from being met that I'd say we meet the anti-derecho checklist. 

Simply nothing interesting in weather right now. When's the next comet or eclipse? We need some Northern Lights! 

I expect the hottest September on record. More mid-90s next week is just about enough to seal it - especially weighted toward AC use. But let's talk about simple temperatures. A brief mid-month front may give way to yet more SER activity. We can only hope it retrogrades a bit. Otherwise - hottest September in recorded history!

Wake me up on Halloween!

I have no optimism about winter based on any hot cold flip analog. I'd like to narrow it down to strong+ El Nino years. My thinking is the Atmo is just flooded with warm air. That PDO out of phase only adds it. Probably not SER all winter; that's Nina. Absurdly mild source regions +ABNA and a stormy STJ seem likely. We got a shot at the warmest winter in recorded history. I expect ZERO snow in Chatty, probably not even a trace.

I'm wall to wall blowtorch. Deep South severe all winter. Early season start to severe Mid-South. Of course the eastern Valley will find a way to be cool. Great for storm anxious, but just one more thing about which I will vent!

Unfortunately I believe that Carvers is right. I know we've had some warm Septembers, but this is effin' ludicrous! I can handle a couple ridiculous weeks, but the whole month looks ludicrous. And this week is effin' plaid! (Spaceballs)

Yeah the Northern Hemisphere is locked in with this wave count.

SER today, SER tomorrow.. well y'all know the rest. 

Lunar eclipse turned out really well Thursday night with peak just after 11pm Central and just after Midnight Friday Eastern Time. High clouds had no impact. Figured as much two days early but work obligations prevented me from starting a thread. I laugh about how neurotic I get about even thin clouds for a TSE; but, so chill about a lunar eclipse. Perhaps I need to do more deep breaths before a solar show.

Next I propose that a deep lunar eclipse* is as beautiful or even more so than a total lunar eclipse. Get an extended lunar version of the diamond ring phase. Through binoculars I observed 3 stars with the Moon. It really felt other worldly and it was gorgeous! Telescope didn't add much value other than for photography. I feel like lunar eclipses are a naked eye and binoculars event. Here are my photos. Let's share! 

*** Lunar eclipses are unique in that deep partial is more than good enough. Solar eclipses are all or nothing. Get into totality or forget about it! ***

I am about to rage about the odd ball streaming games. Sports has become an even more crooked hack. Time to go back into the archive. All this Spanish eclipse stuff has me reflecting on 2017 and 2024 in the USA.

Things should heat up soon from MRX to TRI, eventually unzippering through Knox and Chatt. Monday Aug. 17

The SPC bumped up wind to 30% (not shown) but it is still Slight because no hatch. We'll see if 30% verifies. Requires the said multiple bowing segments. Otherwise 15% would do. I suspect any bowing segment would provide some nice photography. Just don't get struck by lightning. This airmass (very deep CAPE) has promoted prolific lightning for a week now. 

Frankly I'd rather talk eclipses instead of hot weather, lol! Yeah the lunar eclipse Aug. 27-28 is happening Time and Date dot com also has good info. 

Perhaps unpopular take, but I believe lunar eclipses are very under-rated. I'm not gonna sit here and say they compete with total solar or bright Aurora; they don't. But I'm gonna say a deep / total lunar eclipse competes with comets and other astro-treats. I prefer a lunar eclipse over structure only storm chase, perhaps even over brief tornado. 

Then while with solar, it's 100% total or nothing!  ..Lunar is different. Deep partial with long diamond ring phase is really gorgeous. With solar the diamond can't compete with Totality. Lunar is different.. I love a 95-98% partial. Had that back in 2022 and it was stunning. Finally, clouds are more forgiving. We got about an hour vs 2-4 precious minutes. 

From @KakashiHatake2000 above originally Met Eric Snitil.

CFS and ECMWF are both pretty cold for core winter. However several other season models are warmer. I suppose if one cranks up the El Nino signal it goes cool South. +PNA would be expected if the PDO gets lined up - still TBD. Then yes the -NAO can happen with forcing downrange and poleward of the Tropics. That's all review for many readers, but with noting.

My thinking is that the modeling is not yet coded for such a warm Nino. I figure we flood the atmosphere with warmth across the board. Sadly if the South does get BN temps it might be cloudy crappy days with meh nights. Figure we'll get a few cold weeks, but most of summer I'm thinking blowtorch from El Nino Godzilla.

Still had high clouds before Midnight. I did not wake up before dawn to check again. Normally I would check at that 3am pee break but I never woke up. 

12 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Anybody able to see the persids meteor shower was able to see it looking north north east streaks in the sky every few to several minutes

I mention times after Midnight because it is our most favorable angle. At 3am the dark side of the Earth is speeding forward. Early evening we face backward. The later times forward face theoretically makes more meteors visible. However the biggest, brightest, longest fireball in my life was mid-evening and not during any advertised meteor shower.

Then I saw the total eclipse video from Spain. I'm surprised how impactful it was that late in the day and low in the sky. Wish I'd been there. We are waiting for 2027, Europe and North Africa's eclipse of the century. Some great climo but poor geopolitical risks. Yesterday would have worked really well anywhere in Spain. So, I'll be eclipse neurotic for the next almost 12 months.

I could see that in Denver or Cheyenne in Sept.

On 8/10/2026 at 2:43 PM, dwagner88 said:

Interesting point forecast for Friday.

Meanwhile for Tennessee all I see through next week is teaser fronts on MCS outflow, quickly retreating north to the Ohio River or farther. If the ECMWF is right we get a Tuesday tease next week. Then, back to the blast furnace! 

yeah @Weatheriscool our lawn has been remarkably green since it started raining again in late July. 'Twas getting pretty brown before July 4. Quite the reverse of most summers. 

We'll see how long it lasts, ha!

Yes it only takes one storm to make a season in the South. Perfect overrunning, a bowling ball, or an actual open wave bomb. Yeah, the latter seems less likely every year, but the other two still happen. 

Then it depends on location. 2025 was a rare, great winter for Chattanooga. January featured back-to-back snows including one that way overachieved by not going to ice sooner. Rest of the forum seemed unimpressed by their event(s).

But yeah, my main forecast is warm and rainy with occasional severe weather. Long time readers are used to my severe saber rattling.