nrgjeff

Maybe @KakashiHatake2000. Their afternoon text mentions conditional instability. Might come south a wee bit if the temp fcst gets warmer, but the turning is better north. I also infer they thought about 5% up there in Kentucky or IN/OH near the TP, but held off. Probably a Day 1 call this time of year. Things are not synoptically evident Day 2 in meso-scale season. If time were not an issue, Dayton OH would be a lovely starting point.

That's go to Crossville and ask questions later. Official does not get down there, but it's only 90 minutes for me to get up there. If the line really does re-develop east of Nashville, that's prime for it to reach the Plateau as it's maturing. That part of Kentucky is doable too, but farther to drive. Doable is relative in the South - some breaks vs straight forest and mountains. 

3 hours ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Day two risk is out for 5-15% damaging wind and 2% tornado that is a hair thin but there in TN.

El Nino and -PDO sounds like a recipe for a warm active southern stream and lots of severe weather!

My sabre rattling aside that '23-24 year was a bit unusual. Usually the PDO gets in line with Nino. You'd think a super nino would drive the bus. Still several months for it to resolve. Then yea see what the QBO is trending in fall. As I've written before I care a lot more about the slope/trend than the value.

Thank you Jed for the reports. Morristown did more before 11am than most of us will do all day!

The humidity is just plain gross today. Every summer we have a few of these 75 Td nuthouse days where it never mixes out. Gorgeous! said nobody ever. From MRX which I believe is public and it lines up with SPC 2% (and 5% simultaneous posts)

• Main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.  A tornado or two is possible

My first reaction was surprise. I've been so focused on temperatures, but a look upstairs reveals how we get 2%. Low levels are all veered off; but quite importantly, upper levels are nearly straight north. That's enough turning. Kinematics are only modest but any lone cell could at least put on a structure show. Let's do this!

August could be a good night sky month is the clouds cooperate. Jax got the Perseids above. Fond memories of summer come to mind. Too bad the kids are in school by then now days. Peak is spread out a few days per the video, so maybe catch a dark rural sky on a weekend. 

Next we have a near total lunar eclipse the night of Aug. 27-28. The 96% lunar is gorgeous with an extended diamond ring phase where one side is lighter. Of course it's not as spectacular as a solar diamond ring, but at the same time I believe lunar eclipses are severely underrated. In contrast to solar, where I'm a Total or Nothing mentality, deep lunar eclipses are arguably as gorgeous as full lunar. 

Hopefully by then we've also had a couple early season fronts. Might not cool down much, but take the edge off the humidity. Occasionally NW flow on weekly progs would help the cloud issue for astronomy too. Afternoon t-storm cloud debris tends to clear sooner. 

Wow you've been hosed @dwagner88 we have done pretty well since June IMBY. I remember you moved though. 

Post frontal in Chattanooga feels so wonderful! Still dew 70+ but it's cloudy with a north breeze. Staying cloudy post frontal feels great in summer. Could be a preview of El Nino though. For now, focus on the good today. And think of football season!

Strong tropical forcing can disrupt the PV. However if the Arctic is mild there's less cold air to deliver. My thinking is a couple sharp but very brief cold snaps. Otherwise split flow may included a wonky northern stream but steady southern stream. 

El Nino and its atmospheric response seem to be locking in and digging in. Of course we'll still have ebb and flow like anytime. For example August may start with a heat burst to the East coast that gets us. Otherwise it's mainly just the Mid South getting baked (early next week again).

It's still got a snow tag. Might as well add winter, lol! Perhaps that's just to make us feel less hot right now.

After the severe today they have flash flood risk for Wednesday. Can't argue with a front stalling. What else do they do in July? Got a tropical system far enough away to be no threat, but it still helps pump in moisture. Ambient moisture is enough anyway. These dewpoints are ludicrous even for July!

Kentucky supercells just don't care if the low levels are all veered off. Kentucky gonna Kentucky. I doubt they are as strong after sunset so I agree with SPC. No Crossville special. Just barely out of the 2%.

Separately I got a kick out of two NYC anchors who are from the Midwest or South talking about their tornado risk today. Weather people are all the same. Totally forgot their audience is probably terrified. Oh well!

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable. 

Summer of '57 is a bit before my time but I know KCMO had terrible flooding. Mercifully that's not the case this year. That said, parts of the Midwest have experienced flooding this summer. 

On 7/7/2026 at 2:58 PM, Scottie16 said:

Carver, John or Jeff. The summer of 57’ seems to be more in line of what we’re seeing now with the strong El Niño bedded with the severe drought until the Jet stream took over and most areas saw flooding in early fall.

AO for 57’ in July was near neutral
NAO was slightly negative to neutral

I think we are steering more towards 1957/1997 lane as of now but I’m not on the same level on understanding these things like you guys are. What thoughts do you have on this?
.

Summer of '97 was meh heat in the Plains. Y'all have to refresh my memory here. Let's see what the next 2-3 weeks brings out there. 

I'll take the other side of that. Kalshi and Poly both have weather I believe. Even saw it on Draft Kings predictions, which could be dangerous lol!

These dewpoints are simply unacceptable at these temps. Qatar World Cup weather is not what we need for ours!

The only acceptable place for such temps/dews is chasing Bangladesh and with a proper hodograph. Otherwise it ain't right anywhere!

I figure with more thunderstorms the humidity will hold in. Now looks like at least low 90s highs drags into next week. Heat index will stay 100 to 105. Guess after about a week of 110 that'll start to feel normal though. 

Until then enjoy the long weekend. Happy 250 America!

Not bad for a mid-summer easterly flow MCS. Usually 15% is it for wind. We'll see.

Models are always bad in mesoscale season, as you know. At least this website is back to normal speed.

Saturday had Crossville special written all over it. I gave up mid-afternoon after cells near Pikeville looked like crap. Then at sunset while I'm back home enjoying the World Cup, tornado warning Cumberland Co. What a hobby!

NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range high-res ensemble?

Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious.

Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer. 

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. 

Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe!

Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

Starting this weekend through the Fourth looks like some summer temps are coming. Numerical models and humans looking at Nino and teleconnections promise it's brief. Talking the week in question; then, back to where we are now. Hopefully those signals for just one week hold!

Here is what I saw about 6:30 Eastern from the North Georgia Costco. Lookout Mountain became envoloped.

I infer a rain curtain punching out front, but could not discern any rotation. The 80 mph tag was probably justified. I'm shocked Chattanooga doesn't have more damage. As for the Georgia side, I saw a mini-cut (not pictured) but it wasn't enough to spin up a tornado. Warning was justified though; it was trying to rotate. 

1:30 pm Central. I need that tornado warning back. Come on!

Local outflow boundary in June. Thats an easy decision to chase after work. 2% strong!

Considering a North Georgia chase late this afternoon. Target is the LLJ ahead of Aurthur remnants. Chase decision is pending proper destabilization.

Satellite and radar trends match CAM forecasts at this point. Scattered t-storms are developing in Geogia in the morning sunshine. LLJ remains way back in southern MS/AL so I ignore morning to midday t-storms.

New line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the AL/GA line toward 22Z. LLJ should be roaring into that line. Current forecast calls for modest instability, more of a LLJ forced line, and I would not chase it.

Now, if the North Georgia atmosphere can recharge in the wake of midday t-storms, we're in business! The said line would have greater instability and perhaps break up a bit.

Even then, picking a cell is challenging. These tropical cells move quickly, and cycle quickly too. No obvious boundary to target either. Throw in that lovely (sarcastic) Georgia terrain, and ope! Then if the ATL Metro, hell no!

Atlanta WFO AFD is similar thinking. They are probably right that the leading storms have the best chance of any severe. My interest is rotation though - and it's very conditional based on late afternoon instability.

Probability of chase is only about 1/3 but it's not far (hard stop before ATL). Otherwise, World Cup matches start at Noon!

10:30 am Eastern, followed by Peachtree AFD highlights

As the remnant system moves towards the CWA, models seem to finally
be converging on a solution for exactly how the system moves across
the area, for better or worse. CAMs have keyed in on the remnant
circulation continuing to move to the NE across MS and AL,
eventually coming into northern GA by the evening hours. During the
afternoon, some day time heating even with cloud cover allows for
multiple thunderstorms to form over all of north and central Georgia
- these will likely contain most of the severe threat. A line of
storms is expected to form across portions of Alabama later in the
evening that extends into central Georgia during the late evening to
early overnight hours. Simultaneously, the core of the remnant low
moves into north Georgia, bringing some heavy rainfall and potential
for strong winds that are mixed down from a developing 850 mb jet.

Yeah it'll split around us. Front should get into northwest Tenn. Risk farther east and south is that subsidence northwest of the decaying TC squashes things. Then the said TC remnants are sliding deep south. That'd be nice in winter. 

Somebody has to say it, lol! 

The Midwest is going to have a Deep South outbreak on Wednesday, with fast storm motion and low LCLs. At least their trees aren’t as bad.

Oh but we love battling trees, lol! And we don’t have Midwest chaser convergence. Enter the Southeast on Thursday! Remnant of PTC 1 (perhaps Arthur) will scoot from Mississippi through Alabama into Georgia. Despite hideous terrain, it’s close. From SPC Day 3

Southeast...
   The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will continue to move
   through the northern Gulf into the Southeast on Thursday. With 70+
   dewpoints likely to be ahead of this feature, even muted surface
   heating will promote moderate instability will develop. With locally
   enhanced shear near the remnant low, isolated strong wind gusts and
   perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. Should greater
   destabilization occur, higher probabilities could be warranted.