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Everything posted by MidlothianWX

  1. Nearly the same story here - 0z has about 2" of QPF for Boulder from this point forward (4-5" are on the ground right now). Weirdly enough there is a 4"+ jackpot just to my SW, maybe around Eldo Springs.
  2. Rates have been pretty solid here for the past 1-2 hours. All surfaces are completely covered now. 31.1 degrees with a little over 2".
  3. Precip has nearly completely shut off here. This dry slot seems pretty hefty. Is this different than modeled? The HRRR doesn't show anything like this until later in the day. Perhaps this thing really is moving sloooooooooow.
  4. Just about 1" here in Boulder. Temp is 32 on the nose. Starting to accumulate on hard surfaces.
  5. I feel the same way man. I think we are good here though. Just try to relax (throwing stones in glass houses, I know)
  6. All snow as of about 12pm here. Grass is coated but pavement is still wet. Temp is 32.7. For reference, I'm at 5,358 ft.
  7. FWIW, here are eyeballed 12z para GFS QPF totals: Boulder: 3.3" Denver: 3.0" FoCo: 3.3" Estes: 3.4" Centennial: 3.1"
  8. Also, it looks like Jim Cantore will be here in Boulder. This is the kiss of death, right?
  9. Here is a snippet from the BOU morning AFD: I was curious if they'd bump up totals a bit after the 0z runs but it looks like they are sticking with what they've got.
  10. Yeah, which validates BOU's suspicion that this system might ultimately take a slightly more southerly track than has been depicted by some of the globals.
  11. It will be interesting to see what the ensembles say. I know we are very close to game-time now but BOU has said that they are creating their maps based off of ensemble blends.
  12. Oh wow, the Euro QPF jump is impressive. Boulder: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.9" Denver: 12z: 2.1" 0z: 2.8"
  13. 0z para has decided to bullseye Boulder with 4.3" qpf, hah.
  14. Lol. Tney get monster storms every fall and spring. We get them once a decade:( Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm. That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here.
  15. FWIW, I've been following this guy since I moved out here and he is solid.
  16. Interesting note from the NWS AFD this morning:
  17. Eyeballing 0z QPF from Pivotal maps... GFS: Boulder: 3.7" Denver: 2.9" Estes: 5.2" CMC: Boulder: 3.5" Denver: 2.3" Estes: 4.0" UK: Boulder: 3.7" Denver: 3.4" Estes: 3.4" Euro (hi-res): Boulder: 2.1" Denver: 1.9" Estes: 1.8"
  18. Yeah, this is kind of what I was getting at. If Wentz is fine with getting snowed in for a few days then I would go to Nederland or Estes Park for sure. Otherwise, Boulder is a safer bet.
  19. Boulder is roughly a ~45 minute drive from the airport and might be your best bet for this storm, assuming you want to stay relatively close as you said. Feel free to PM me if you need any help/advice.
  20. QPF-wise, the other globals are closer to the GFS than they are the Euro. Regardless, the next few model runs will be very interesting.
  21. The margins have shifted but the overall qpf picture for Denver/Boulder/FoCo has remained fairly consistent. For example, for the past 4+ runs the para GFS has put 5" +/- .2" over me. This 18z run continues that trend. Likely too juiced but it has been steadfast.
  22. It appears the 12z Euro increased QPF in the Denver/Boulder metro to 2-2.5". Can any local experts tell me how the Euro typically verifies in heavy upslope scenarios vs. the other globals?
  23. 12z GFS qpf: Boulder: 5.2" Denver: 5.0" Precip begins roughly 48 hours from now.
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