gravitylover

I'm passing 2" now. 18/16/SN+ It's been mostly small flakes but it's changing now.It sounds like it's getting grainy.

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage...this part...8 s High Point   1.2" at 355P  no ice pellets yet but expecting sometime around 5 or 530P.  20.8F  posted 403P/18

Hey Walt. I've never been any good at figuring out storm movement speeds and when they get to different places. When do you think that line makes it to the I684 corridor? 

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Yup the ground temperature is cold. I have the same about 2/3” of an inch. I used the blower instead of a shovel and it came clean off the pavers and deck surfaces. It’s amazing how the the dewpt jumped from 7 to 19 in two hours. Currently 19/19

18/15. It just started snowing heavily again and the temp dropped a degree instantly.

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

North of I90 and above 1500 feet isn't doing terribly so far this year and from about that high point on Rt 7 by Manchester (VT) above 2k it's been pretty good. K is looking good and by late Feb will be typical midwinter conditions. You're good to go.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over for anything sustained.  We can get snow events, but it will not be the winter many hoped for.

Very few of them really are. Even in the great winters people whine. I wasn't here in 96 but I bet everyone bugged out when the greatness got washed away before it got even better.

38 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah they had a pretty great year last year. Hasn't been as cold as normal, but I enjoy that when skiing now. I've noticed in my 30s now I'm not as warm as I was in my young 20s haha.

Give it another 20 years. You start wearing a sweater around the house when it's 40* outside  

18/15 winds are variable around the area but most have an E or N aspect and they're light at 0-5mph. There's only about 2/3" so far and the roads went to poop pretty quickly due to cold pavement. If you don't have to go out and drive don't. All of the rookies with summer tires are out there struggling.

I had to run over to Ridgefield CT and we took my BRZ. It's unfortunately still running the 3 season tires so that was a "challenging" drive home. My wife wasn't enjoying it nearly as much as I was  In all seriousness those first 2/3" really made a mess of the roads because it was so cold.

32 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You're far enough north to see mostly snow before the dry slot moves in. Should do well up there.

As a side note that doesn't really belong in an obs thread but, in a more general sense when forecasts are made it would be cool if a distinction was made based on east and west of the River. I know it's hard to forecast for microclimates.

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Agreed - I like the ~6-8PM window for potential +SN in northern Queens/LI, Manhattan, CT and points north.

How far north? North and east or...?

Sorry I just never really know what metro area mets mean when they say that so I thought I'd see what you're thinking. There has always seemed to be more focus on N&W but that's almost always wrong for me and I'm ~55 miles due north of the Whitestone Bridge. 

19/4 Radar shows I'm under a virga flizzard. Most stations in my area are now either S or SW but really light.

12/1/NW0-3/OVC

Hey Rob or SNY is it snowing over there yet?

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need a wholesale pattern reshuffle...not sure that's in the cards this year-Strong PV over the pole, No Atlantic help, Pacific is terrible and we have a strong PAC jet.     I'm sure we'll see cooldowns like we're having now and maybe a minor to moderate snow event here and there (hopefully), but I think it's about time to toss in the towel for anything sustained for a while.   

It's one of those winters where that PV spins and occasionally a cold lobe rolls over and the cold enough part of it reaches this far south. If it happens to be placed right and finds some moisture at the right moment we get snow. I think it's about a 50/50 chance whether it's timed right and we go white or it's off slightly and we get wet. 

Grr I have 39 and dense fog.

Fog. Again. 

You'd be right. Usually it's because she's overwhelmed with my brilliance and patience but sometimes...

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

we need a massive volcanic eruption to cool the earth for the next few years maybe we will get lucky ..

I've been saying that since Pinatubo. Every time there's a decent eruption in an out of the way place I root for it to get bigger and my wife gives me s**t for it. I say I want it to snow more and she just shakes her head  

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Congrats!  Best day to have a kid-you get the tax credit for the whole year!  LOL.   Mine are 10 (twins)-goes fast, enjoy every minute despite some long days and sleepless nights

My twins just turned 21 last week. It's been a long haul  

Congrats NJwx.

Haha now we get to call Rob gramps!  

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I had heard nothing about a warmup in the time period referenced until today. So I am not putting much faith in anything. I'm already bored to tears with this winter and am ready to plan the garden and get the fishing gear ready.

I spent most of the warm hours on Sunday cleaning and prepping the garden. I'm going to go pick up soil and mulch this afternoon. 

How's that for optimism 

The modelologists are having a meltdown.

What do we have to do to get a night that's not foggy and misty? This is 3 in a row now that it's just miserable and thoroughly soaking everything. If I wanted to live in a rainforest I'd already be there.

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

classic dense fog sounding tuesday night

It's here early, I've got very dense fog now. This sux because it keeps everything wet and zaps most outdoor fun things even though temps are reasonable.

That's some serious fog out there. 

It's ugly out there today, cold with light mist. I was hoping for a nicer day than this.

Those tornadoes in May '18 wrecked a lot of the best mountain bike trails around here. The majority of those are still blocked and starting to fade away. Unfortunately there's very little hope of getting them cut out and the trails reopened because the state and county won't give permission. It sux.

1 hour ago, Hitman said:

.25” in the bucket and 60f, 60dp.  Lovely day for ....I don’t know what.

Yard cleanup and garden prep.

I can't remember the last time it stayed so muggy that the streets stayed wet all day and never even tried to dry.