tamarack

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks like your retention spot kicks some ass!  

Small lawn area with trees 60-80 feet tall.  Mostly hardwoods but even they block about 1/3 of direct sun.  That plus the frost pocket topography help to preserve pack.  (Of course, our garden gets less sun and earlier frosts than most.)

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So, In an average 12 week winter season (84 days) if the ground was covered for the whole 12 weeks(unlikely in southern areas), ..3% less snow duration is about 2.5 days less…not exactly a shocking number imo.  But ok. 

Bit longer on the places I researched.
                    Total 1"+  Consec. days
CAR                134        120
Rangeley       143         131
Farmington    112         102
My short (27 yr) pack-retention spot:  123 total, 119 consec.

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I agree in the far interior. Especially NNE. Warming from climo norms is actually conducive to more snowfall. We’ve seen it recently. Dry is the bigger enemy up there. But I do think in large chunk of SNE/CNE up along coastal NNE this is an important trend.

7-8 years ago, I wrote a short essay on potential effects of climate change on the Bureau of Parks and Public Lands' timber management.  As part of it I looked at snowfall and temps for the northerly 2/3 of Maine where 90%+ of the BPL-managed acreage.  I used CAR for the north, Rangeley for the mountains and Farmington for non-mountain inland areas.  Temps have risen noticeably this century, particularly in deep cold - subzero mornings, important for freezing down winter roads.  21st century snowfall increased at all 3 sites, averaging 6% more.  Duration of snow cover was lower (3-5%) at CAR and Farmington but up 5% at Rangeley - elevation helps, I guess.

First subzero morning here - expected about -5 but reached -9, earliest in the season this cold since moving here in 1998.  Maybe the wind quieted earlier than expected?

13 hours ago, mreaves said:

Just went sub zero here. 

Reached -9 this morning, coldest we've had this early in the season.  Saw -15 at HIE.

Squalls passed to the south, only a few flakes here, but wind is noisy and temps diving.  Might go subzero tomorrow morning, would be the season's earliest since 2019.

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pope must have did well despite him thinking he has the climo of Long Island 

Dover reported 7.0 and Rochester had reports of 8.0 and 7.0.  PSM only 4.6".

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Can't we just put to bed the sun angle garbage? It is such a misnomer.

Or use it very cautiously.  After the 2.4" we had on Nov 16 the snow cover hung around for 7 more days, despite upper 30s maxima and sunny/PC skies.  Move those conditions to March 16 and the cover is gone 2 days after the storm.
Noting sun angle in December means holding onto the pack.

56 minutes ago, ariof said:

To be fair … if the current Euro op verified it would probably mean the coldest December since 1989.

Nothing over 40 at KBOS, more time below 20 than above 30, average around 23 (monthly climo is 34, first half of the month is 37). Dry, would probably mean some dry snowmaking ponds but some very happy ski areas (especially if the atmosphere could squeeze out some natural snow.

GFS had it warmer out in clown range, and clown range doesn't hit Grinch Range anyway but we have to factor in 57° on xmas.

That was the max on 12/25/2020 at CAR.  +35 anyone?

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like how any cold shot now is a polar vortex. The media is so dumb.

And any snowstorm bigger than a weak clipper is a bomb cyclone (looking at you, CNN).  Usually those have some wind, even inland.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’ve had those sensors never go below 33° all winter when the pack is deep enough. Where the ground is exposed it freezes deep though. I clear grassy areas for the chickens all winter and come April the cleared areas are usually about a half foot higher than the ground that was under pack because of how much it froze and heaved upward.

The 50-foot path between driveway and tool shed has the same effect, though closer to 4".

Deep blue all morning, now solid clouds.

Had constant SN from 7:15 AM thru 11:30 PM as the temp slowly climbed from 17 to 23, finishing with 6.9" on 0.49" LE, 14:1 ratio.  However, it was like 2 different storms; by 4:30 we had only 2" of tiny flakes.  I didn't take a core then, but it was like walking on cornmeal, probably no higher ratio than 8:1.  Then the dendrites began to look better and by 9 the total was 5.2" on 0.43" LE, probably close to 20:1.  The board held 1.7" this morning with only 0.06" LE and given the fluff, the post-9 PM might've been 2" if I'd gone out at midnight.  Very little wind as of now, so the fir and hemlocks are loaded.

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Not sure what they have in the forecast at this poitn, but the AFD had them upping them along the coast.

 

Meanwhile, the HRRR shows the snow hole filling in within the hour and then progressively get better from there with several hours of good qpf coming in.  Fingers crossed.

Maybe a move to the south?  Good for coastal snow, less QPF to the north?

Got down to 10 last night and was up to 18 when flakes began about 7:15.   Steady small flakes and 2.0" at 2:15 and my walk to the mailbox had a feel of a somewhat low ratio.  In 7 hours, the temp has risen all the way to 20.  Noted that GYX has cut back the totals a bit.

GYX 90/50/10 percents for Farmington (and here) are 0.5"/7"/14".  Guessing that the models remain far apart.  P&C forecast is 3-5 tomorrow and 2-4 tomorrow night.

Had mostly light SN, 1.1" and 0.07" LE, followed by 4 hours of light RA.  Total precip of 0.12" was 3rd from lowest of 65 cocorahs reports when I looked at 9:30.

November numbers
Avg max:  39.7   -2.6   Highest:  51, 8th
Avg min:   25.6   +0.9  Lowest:  14, 20th
Mean:       32.7   -0.8

Precip:  2.35"   -1.80"   Wettest:  0.44", 10th

Snow:   3.7"    -1.2"   Greatest: 2.4", 16th

November 2025 was characterized by a lack of extremes (unless the modest 0.55" for wettest day was 'extreme').  The max/min spread of 37° is second least (33° in 1998, 50/17) and daily departures got no greater than 7.2° AN or 7.3° BN and only 7 days had 5° AN/BN.  (Average for 28 November greatest departures are 14° AN and 13° BN.)

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good hit up our way still.

Probably too far north here for the good stuff, but we won't sneer at 3-4".

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

For the drought monitor weenies. We’re at only about 2” for the month from here to CON.

We're at 2.23", nearly 2" BN, for the 8th BN month this year and 11th of the past 15.  Jan-Aug last year was very wet (despite our driest February), then the spigot went down to a trickle.

A few flakes drifting by on 25-30 mph gusts, much less than the graupel shower that nearly covered the ground yesterday afternoon.

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

0" for me. Sweet.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

That lightest gray patch is a bit north of you, and right over me.  It's surprising how often modeled snowfall includes that Fryeburg-Danforth hole.  Fortunately, it doesn't verify all that often.

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we just have a crusty couple inches in the yard and the fields are melted out.

Highly elevation dependent start to winter.

Only saw 3” total 24 hrs at all plots at Mansfield, like you said.  But looks like adding another inch at Lookout since the flip this morning.  Academic but guess it’s now 4” up there in 36 hours. 

Today's low 40s will degrade the 1" cover to "T", with nothing to see for the rest of the week.

Temp reached 40 today after 9 straight maxima in the 30s.  Open ground is bare, forested land still white.

We have 10 feet of gutter.  It's on the front porch, which is open to the air, and over the front steps.  It limits the drip/freeze on the steps, but thaws/freezes do fill it with ice.

October here was 1.8° AN and November is currently running 2.0° BN.  The November departure will likely be less but will almost certainly stay BN.  In 27 snow seasons, 6 have had AN Octobers and BN Novembers.  All 6 had AN snow, ranging 90.4" to 142.3", and the average of 108.5" is exactly 20.0" above the current average.  

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I grew up in Dover, DE.  We had lots of good winters between 1977 and 1996.  At least 4 16"+ storms and good stretches of deep cold, iced/skating ponds, etc.

Farther north (Jersey Highlands) we had 7 events of 18-24" from March 1956 thru February 1961, the greatest run of big dumps I've seen anywhere.   Five of those were cold powder, with temps low teens to low 20s.
Closest is probably Nov 2014 thru March 2018, with 6 storms 15.5-21" plus 2 with 13".  A shorter run, Feb 2007 thru Feb 2009, had 4 events 15.5-24.5".  Oddly, the snowiest of those 3 winters, 07-08, had nothing over 12.5" and ony 2 in double digits.

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

I'm down visiting some of my wife's family in NJ this weekend. Took a ride out to visit her uncle in Long Valley. I think you were from that area?  The trees are completely bare there and they have had snow twice and some decent cold according to her uncle. 

But today I am near EWR and it was like going back in time a full month+ or so with the trees and stuff flowering.   Looks like EWR still hasn't gone below 32.

 

 

We lived about 25 miles northeast from Long Valley.  My maternal grandparents had a house in LV (primary home was Glen Ridge) and we would make frequent visits to mow the 3/4-acre lawn (1950s-60s), usually finding 2-3 yellowjacket nests per mowing.  Occasionally we'd stop for a feast at Larison's Turkey Farm, long since closed.

2 hours ago, amarshall said:

Some leaves have dropped but definitely mid December before most of them come down




.

I lived in the Jersey Highlands 1950 to 1971, and never saw anywhere near that many oak leaves in the latter half of November.  Oaks and Maples were the most common of the many tree species in the forests near home, mid-aged as most land there had been grazed into the late 1800s.  Oaks I remember (long before forestry school so some guesswork) were Northern red, black, pin, white, swamp white and where glaciers had scraped the hilltops, chestnut oak.  I'm confident that several other oak species were also in the mix.

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Evenings just feel like forever cooped up inside the house before bedtime. I loathe TV so I don’t have much to do except troll here. I try to do some yardwork and the sun is behind the trees by 130pm. There’s no real imminent winter threats yet so it’s just a colder, darker version of fall. Give me some UVB.

We had bare ground in December in 2 of 9 at Fort Kent, and even with the sun out, we would drive with the headlights on by 3 PM.  In rain, the gloom came even earlier.