tamarack

19 hours ago, tavwtby said:

yeah I think I still have the forecast from ALY for 2015 showing 24-30" for my area, had like 10 hours of sand...

Had 20" of 9:1 cold sand at single digits from that storm, one of only 4 events (27 winters) to meet blizzard conditions here in the sheltered woods.  Unfortunately, I never saw a flake at home - was with family in SNJ, where the forecast 12-16" verified at 1.5", all of which was gone 4 hours from final flakes.  3rd of 4 times that winter that warned storms verified at 1/8 (or less) of the low end of the forecast range.  Got to shovel it all, however, getting home about 12 hours after it ended.

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

In Jan 94 had a midnight high of 49 and still finished BN with  midnight low of 2 lol

Jan 94   Gardiner, Maine
26     3   -16     T      T     25
27    11    -21    T      T      25
28   45     -1   1.61   2.5   24
29   41     18    .01            21
30   18      0                     21
31    15   -10                     21

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How can anything in mid January, with most people below normal for snow, be considered pure gravy? IMO, we are wasting peak climo snow season for many currently. 
 

if we have any shot at anything resembling a normal season, we need changes soon, and not just back to cold temps and 1/2” clippers 

January here is usually snowy - 22% of season total - but doesn't have all that many big events. After 27 winters:
        10"+(47)  15"+(18)
NOV       1           0
DEC      10          4
JAN       6           1
FEB       11           5
MAR     15           6
APR       4           2

1 hour ago, TheMainer said:

One of my rox mounts actually did break and I had to zip tie to get home with it, had almost 6,000 miles of abuse and then a smooth ride with the wife at 50-60 mph with no bumps and it breaks 

I do appreciate the Maine insight you have, definitely a different world up here than other areas. Hope you guys do alright down there too, trends look promising. You should have good riding I imagine with the snow the past few days and what's coming this weekend. We need a good season after these past 5 disappointments.

Haven't heard any traffic on the club trail thru our woodlot, though I might've missed some.  Had 12" at the stake this morning, but the northerly 100 yards of trail on us require 15-18" of dense pack to avoid having the groomer clanging on the rocks. 

17 hours ago, Layman said:

Couple questions for the active snowmobilers amongst us here:  

I looked at a property today that I'm really interested in but it's got a local snowmobile club trail bisecting a portion of it.  It's not a corridor or primary trail - it's specifically listed as a "secondary" and "club trail".  Is it possible to say what kind of frequency trails like this are accessed/used?  Is it frowned upon if/when trails are rerouted on the same property?  Are these trails used in the summer?

This is a rural vacant building lot and a location to build a house is above the existing trail by about 250 feet in a straight line and maybe 75 to 100 feet in elevation.  Seems close for someone who's looking for significant privacy (me!) and am seriously considering this property.  

Tagging a few people here who I've seen post about snowmobiling in case you have any input on this - TIA:  @WinterWolf @dryslot @mreaves

Don't own a sled but the club trail runs about 1,800 feet thru our woodlot, passing within 450 feet of the house.  On a weekend day there might be 30-40 sled passes, when the trails are in good shape.  We can barely hear them from inside the house, though if I listen the buzz is easily heard.  (Traffic on the paved road 2,000 feet away makes more noise.)
Caveats:
1. Our town holds only about 1,500 people.  Next town west, Farmington (county seat) has just over 5,000.
2. There's better sledding within a 30-minute drive.  Probably most on our trail ride from their dooryard.
3. That 450-foot span is thick forest, though mostly hardwoods.
Summer use is limited to a few walkers and a handful of 4-wheeler passes by club members doing maintenance.

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

cut them in Spring. They never seems to pop back

The 1998 ice storm left a nice-looking white birch bent nearly 90°.  The tree was 7-8" diameter and had been 45-50 feet tall.  When I noticed it was lifting a bit, I tossed a rope over it about 25 feet from the stump, attached the rope to my come-along and to another tree.  Every few days I'd cinch up the rope and by mid-April the tree was back to nearly vertical.  We then moved to New Sharon on May 15 so I've no idea how that birch is doing now.

About 2" here, with off-on light snow, temp low 20s.

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray, Feb 1956 and Feb 1972 were good and both La Nina...'56 was a strong Nina.

I'm stil trying to find a similar pattern as to the one being forecasted by ensembles....I agree Feb 2014 is prob the closest but that had the lower heights biased further west....more of a -PNA than is currently being progged. Late Jan/early Feb 2013 is another somewhat similar pattern too. 

56/72 were 50-50 Februarys at our NNJ homes (moved 8 miles south in 1971).  Feb 56 was a nothingburger, only 4-5".   That winter's peak was in March, including a 24" dump on 18-19, the first double-digit snowfall I remember (I was 21 months old for the Dec 26-27, 1947bomb) then a 12" paste bomb in early April brought the total past 60" (avg about 40).  Feb 72 was the best of a mediocre winter, with a ~10" storm in mid-month and 2 lesser storms, the month producing more than half of the winter total.

I had two of those, one on each side. Did lapro on one then 2yrs later had another on other side and went with open procedure. Also have shoulder impingement, that can go from one side to the next. getting older is not fun.

No shoulder surgeries but I've damaged both.  At 18, I tossed a baseball 270'.  Today, I might not reach 70.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the epic stretch was more December into early January...February was relatively tame....then March into early April ramped up again. I had 12.3" that February.

In Gardiner where we lived during 95-96, DEC thru APR, first parts of months were super, last parts were awful.  Snowiest by 30"+ of 13 winters there but only 5th place for SDDs.

                                   temp  precip    snow
First parts:  81 days   -6.4     11.56"    127.2"
Last parts:  71 days   +4.8    14.58       9.2"

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Had nerve block yesterday.  Actually last knee was easy. Bionic man now so much hardware the body scan at the airport goes crazy. Two knees a shoulder an ankle and 4 rods in the back

Way ahead of me - only the left knee last June (may your 2nd knee be as easy as my 1st) and neck fusion in 2011.  Other surgeries - prostate, and ablation for A-fib - didn't require leaving any hardware.

Slight overperformer (forecast was ~0.5") with 1.7" fluff with 0.08" LE.  Looks like mostly snow tonight, maybe some ZRDZ tomorrow, 3-5" total.  Fri-weekend events look rainy from this distance but no washouts.

15 hours ago, tavwtby said:

historically, our best timeframe for hecs, or just coastal storms in general, has been the last couple weeks of January into the first couple weeks of February...and then again around the ides of March...if we can squeeze out some bonus snows before and after that period and hope for a nice bomb in between, we can maybe reach climo avg for the first time in years in SNE...and elsewhere for that matter... here's to wishcasting for the new year! also, another year without a storm on my birthday tomorrow so I digress.

Only one site and farther north, but here's the season-progressive chronological sequence for our biggest (15"+) snowfalls, 18 of them in 27 winters.  (But only 2 in the past 7.)
Only 4 have met blizzard conditions here, marked by *. 
Not including 25-26, snowfall thru Jan 31 has averaged 49.2", Feb 1 forward is 49.3", but 72% of the biggies have come in the 2nd half.
24.0"   12/6-7/2003 *
22.0"   12/16-18/2022
15.5"    12/21-22/2008 *
21.0"   12/29-30/2016
20.0"    1/27-28/2015 *
17.0"    2/5-6/2001
21.0"   2/10-11/2005  (thunder)
21.0"   2/12-13/2017
15.5"   2/14-15/2007
24.5"  2/22-23/2009
19.9"   3/7-9/2018
16.5"   3/13-14/2018
15.5"   3/14-15/2017 *
16.0"   3/22-23/2001
22.0"   3/23-24/2024
19.0"   3/30-31/2001
15.1"    4/1-2/2011
18.5"   4/4-5/2007

57 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully because of this prolonged cold a number has been done on the tick population 

Only where the snow is gone.  Otherwise, the small rodents harboring the little beasts will be snug under the pack, safe from owls and other raptors.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas. 

That squall was the best I'd seen since living in Fort Kent.  At RUM (for a meeting) it lasted less than 45 minutes and dropped 2" horizontally while chopping the temp by about 15°.  Only 1" at home.  Unfortunately, that was the last 'genuine' winter event for that cold season.  The 10" of grayish-as-it-fell 4:1 glop modified by 1"+ cold RA doesn't qualify as snow, for me.  Neither did the 3" of paste in the 3rd week of April.

Nice if short squall went thru here just after noon, with a few minutes of visibility below 100 yards with some 20s gusts.  Only 0.4" from 0.01" but fun for a bit.

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

although, Jan 2014 was fantastic for SNE

Biggest snowfall that month was 1.9" on 2-3, at temps 10-12 below zero.  Farther north, CAR got no snow but had their 2nd coldest daily max with -15/-28.

Just had a quick squall, visibility briefly under 100 yards.  It's letting up but might approach the forecast 0.5".

December 2025
Avg max:   26.5    -4.2     Mildest:  49, 19th
Avg min:      6.8    -6.6    Coldest:  -18, 9th
Mean:         16.7    -5.3   3rd coldest (#1:  '17, #2:  '13)
Precip:    3.85"   -0.98"   Wettest:  1.26", 19th
Snow:    22.4"    +3.0"   Biggest:  8.0", 24th    Deepest pack:  10" 24, 25

2025 YEAR
Avg max:   52.24    -0.35    Hottest:  92, 6/24 and 8/12.  Tied for hottest in June, hottest day in August.
Avg min:    31.54    +031     Coldest:  -19, 2/2   7th year w/o -20 or colder  (Also, 3rd year bottoming at -19.)
Mean:       41.96     +0.05  (Some illogic, can't find why.)    Coldest year since 2019.
Precip:  37.22"  -11.61"   2nd driest year, only 2001 had less.  Wettest day:  1.53"  9/25.  9 of 12 months were BN.
Snow (calendar year)  70.0"   -18.8"   Biggest:  12/24

2025 had perhaps the fewest of standout events of our 27 full years here.  No double-digit snows, no 2"+ rains, the fewest days with thunder (5, previous low was 8, average is 15), no especially heavy winds.
Ironically, the only real standouts were the hot days in June and August, especially the heat wave of August 11-13, only the 2nd one here - in the coldest year of the most recent 5. 
The very low precip doesn't fit my idea of "event" - more like watching grass grow.  Fortunately, we had no problems with our shallow dug well, though the garden suffered, as my late-June total knee replacement
hindered my ability to overcome the lack of rain.


 

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter 2013-14 was excellent overall, but January was major frustration.  It was significantly BN for temp, AN for precip, and the 2nd least snowy of 130 Januarys at the nearby Farmington co-op.  That's a near-impossible trifecta.

31 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

before 2018, i averaged ~2 double digits storms per year. Since then i have had 5 in the last 8 years.

1/4/18, 12/17/20, 1/23/23, 3/4/23, 3/14/23

it's no coincidence that the winter of 2022-2023 was my only above-average snowfall season in that 8 years.

Depending how close to 2.0/winter, you're doing better than here considering our considerably greater average snowfall, currently 88.5" thru 27 full seasons.  We've had 47 storms of 10"+ in those 27 winters, or 1.7 per.  Maybe we do better on 20"+, currently 8 plus 19.9 in March 2018.

Early January looks cold (~8-10° BN) and dry.  Maybe, like December, it can be BN for precip but AN for snow (22.4" vs 19.3" avg).

50 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Last year got on late, Previous 2 yrs, There was no ice at all, Been many times and filled up half or a full 5 gal bucket in the past, Been many times and came back with a few or an empty bucket, Good chance we should have some luck as they tend to spawn early season, Went a few times last year but did not get on the ice until Feb and caught a few dozen, Nothing special.

Only tried once, Jan 2008 at Randolph, a half-dozen miles downstream from AUG.  The 4 of us caught a few tommycod but nothing else. A kid about 10-y.o. was showing everyone a nice smelt.  Might've been the only one caught among the 20+ occupied shacks.

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Thank god we had a bit of snow last night to add some grit to the ice.

Only a tenth of graupel, but it made the porch steps accessible without sprinkling ashes.  Put most of the 5-gallons of the stuff on the driveway as water was oozing from the mess as the frozen precip landed.  (Otherwise the mail carrier might not hazard to try.)  Had 10" pack at 7 yesterday but 0.2" ZR and 0.5" of 32 (plus a tiny fraction) RA left us at the pre-storm 8".  But it's a more bulletproof 8" now.  Total precip 1.08".

Family on the way south, roads are decent.  I hope my son-in-law can send some videos of the Saturday sledding party.  The audio is hilarious.

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

I drove up to Lyndon with my father during it to work on my shitbox 87 Cavalier that died in the LSC parking lot before break. I remember the Lakes Region looking like a disaster area from 93…mostly from about here through the woodstock area. We gradually lost ice through the notch until it looked like mostly just wet trees on the other side toward Cannon. 

Our 0.8-acre houselot in Gardiner probably had more large branches on the ground than the 60 acres of forest on our current woodlot, as the Farmington area had mostly pingers.  Elevation was often the key.  On the state lot in Hebron, 10 miles NW from LEW, ice at the top of Greenwood Hill was almost the size of a Pringles can.  I brought 2 pieces home to show family, each centered with a first-year twig.  One was 3.0x2.2 inches diameter, the other 2.5x2.5 inches, about 2 lb per linear foot of branch.  Some large white pines had a near-continuous sheet of ice on their NE exposure and others had cascading breakage on that side as top branches landed on the lower ones.

OT:  Sad your Cavalier was a lemon.  Our 1983 wagon (1st year they had fuel injection, also our last new car) was wonderful except for its unibody frame.  Just under 150k, 33 mph on average, engine never missed a beat, but the frame was rusted such as we might end up like Herbie in the Love Bug.  Also the finest 2-WD vehicle in snow and mud that I've driven.  With aggressive tread snows and spike, it would go thru almost anything.

2.0" snow then light freezing rain.  Probably cold rain this afternoon, as the CAD underperformed the forecast.

Yesterday's temp was 30/-11, the rare winter 40+ range day without a strong CF/WF.

Hoping for more IP, less ZR.  Impressive diurnal range today, 30/-11.

27 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I ended up with 3.8.  Can’t complain I’ve have 11.4 for December but every  storm I’ve had has been under  in the forecasted amounts lol. 

Decent, though no blockbusters.  Same here, proportionally to climo snow - now 20.3" for the month (no flakes from yesterday, as forecast). 
Tomorrow night/Monday looks to be mostly IP/ZR here.

10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I do think, it's subjective of course, that 13-14 is a massively underrated season. It had a perfect D-J-F. The last minute March rug pull did burn a lot and ended the season on a very sour note which kinda spoils it, and the storm you just mentioned. Otherwise it was phenomenal from NY to BOS. Some really cold storms too that year. 

Excellent winter capped by a cold and snowy March that brought the pack to 43".

Surprise 0.9" on the board this morning, total now 24.0".

Up to a surprising 8.5".  The overnight 5.5" ratio was 10.5:1.  The 3.0" since 7 AM had ratio 43:1.  Still watching mood flakes.