tamarack

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

GYX has a watch for the counties just to our south, advisory level here, about 3-5 with high ratio.  Family in SNJ is planning to head up tomorrow and can't start before noon, so may be driving their 15-passenger van in snow from Hartford north.  Last time they were here for Christmas was 2 years ago, and they didn't see a flake, not even a dirty snow pile (4"+ RA at 50-55° wiped everything), until the day they headed south.  Assuming they don't have any "adventures" tomorrow, they'll see fresh white this year.

Between the increasing snow forecasts for our area and the kids running thru norovirus (some at peak, some all better), the trip will be on Wednesday.  Dealing with Christmas Eve traffic seemed the better choice. 
GYX afternoon added an inch to the above 3-5.  Hoping for nice dendrites and 12-15:1 ratios rather than crummy flakes and 8-9:1.

43 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya the last one that really jacked my area was in February 2017? I think. Great ratios with that one iirc

Feb. 17 was a wonderful month, but if the event you've noted was the storm of 15-16, it was one of the most disappointed 6"+ snowfall in my memory, as it had been forecast as a much bigger dump.  On Feb 11 a forecast 1-3 turned into 8" of 30:1 feathers with single-digit temps.  Then 12-13 brought 21", bringing the pack to 47".  The morning of the 15th, with depth at 44", our forecast was 12-18 - I thought "easy 50s pack, maybe even 60".  As flakes began that afternoon, GYX chopped our forecast to 6-10, with the jack moving to west of Sebago.  That 6.2 was heavier, temps were milder, and it only raised the pack to 46".

My area (wherever I've lived) has been good at dodging IVT.  We did get a surprise 2.4" on 3/21/92, but PWM had 11.4" and parts of Kennebunkport 2 feet.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

GYX has a watch for the counties just to our south, advisory level here, about 3-5 with high ratio.  Family in SNJ is planning to head up tomorrow and can't start before noon, so may be driving their 15-passenger van in snow from Hartford north.  Last time they were here for Christmas was 2 years ago, and they didn't see a flake, not even a dirty snow pile (4"+ RA at 50-55° wiped everything), until the day they headed south.  Assuming they don't have any "adventures" tomorrow, they'll see fresh white this year.

16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

At least it appears to be solidly lodged in other trees so not about to fall soon.  We still have several tall (60+) roadside fir trees lodged since 12/18/23.

Finished with 1.26".  Gusts at home got into the 30s, but we were in WVL about 5:30 PM when a blast of RA+ was accompanied by gusts that had to be well into the 40s.  By the time we left Governor's at 6:20, the wind was less, and the rain was nearly done.  Nothing frozen here, beginning or end.  Still have a white lawn, 2" of armorplate, but the nearby fields are almost all brown.

On 12/18/2025 at 9:51 PM, J.Spin said:

 

Interesting graphics.  My shaded lawn holds pack well and though we get less total snowfall, we usually have more SDDs than your spot.  Early snow season is different, with your totals through 12/15 topped mine 12 of 19 years.  Of the 7 where mine were higher, only 3 were significantly above: 

2014-15, 193 (13" pre-Thanksgiving storm)

2018-19, 339 (Snowiest November by far)

Last year, 177 (8" T-Day evening, 9.3" 12/4-5.  The 2 biggest storms that season).
 

Wind arrived about 1 PM, not too strong so far, gusts 30+ but nowhere near the 40-45 forecast for the general area.  And not even close to 2 years and one day ago.

BTV had 44 at 1 PM, down 18 in 2 hours.

56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a pretty sick looking line moving thru Eastern NY.

Was even sharper about 9 AM, with some 70 dbz pixels.  I'm guessing it will be more d9iffuse before it reaches our longitude.  Little wind here so far.

Fog rolled in and the temp jumped 5° (35 to 40) in about 30 minutes. 10 AM at IZG was 36, inversion holding there but it can't last.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

Always tough to get blamed for someone else's actions.  I enjoy both his AFD's and his posts here.

1 hour ago, ariof said:

95" in 30 days is not only the highest 30-day snowfall in BOS, but more than any 30-day period in any major city in the country. (BUF had 80" in a week in Dec 2001 but very little on either side; Orchard Park has seen more but BUF is a smaller city and the totals are banded mesoscale, not the synoptic 90"+ around BOS.) I think Sapporo has had a couple of 100" months, and it's probably the only large (2m+) city to have ever seen a heavier 30-day snowfall than that 30-day period in BOS.

Not even close to a major city, but Machias Maine, at 20' elev, had 106.3" from Jan 25-Feb 23, 2015.  Meanwhile in the (usually) snowier foothills, we had 52.5" during the same period.

We had 60.1" in 31 days, Feb 10-Mar 12, 2005.  In Fort Kent, tops was 63.0" from Dec 7, 1976 thru Jan 6, 1977.  December alone had 61.5".

1 hour ago, das said:

Good post.  To put a fine point on the synoptic/orographic nature of this year, I am at 14.6" snowfall total here in Charlotte at 285'.  With 4" OTG and a SWE of 0.6"

Exactly the same 14.6" here in the western Maine foothills, but with 6" depth and about 0.8" LE.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree a low first half of a season correlates with a low season in general...what I am saying is that a very low December is a much more dire signal in a cool ENSO season than in a warm ENSO.

One site, only 27 winters, percentage of total winter snow:
             n    Oct-Dec   Oct-Jan
El Nino (8)    24%         51%
La Nina (7)   25%         48%
La Nada (12) 37%        59%

SSS, but the outlier seems obvious.

 

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month.

-10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

-9.6 thru yesterday, would need +10 rest of month to avoid finishing BN.  12/3 was -0.1, essentially average, so technically today is the 1st AN.  Had a high of 34 on 12/1 so we'll see if that gets eclipsed as well.
 

That was one my one great event...I had 16", but my mom in Wilmington had like 20".

2020-21, the winter in which several NNJ sites had more snow in February than the snowy foothills had for the entire snow season.  

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Spoken from the guy that doesn't have 4 under the age of 7

No thanks for extended outages.  No one under 7 here, but on Christmas our 3-bedroom, one bathroom home will have 11 people (with 7 ladies) with ages 7 to 79.  
 

Should be taking notes that all of our big storms have been cutters.

All of the big storms have avoided us since April of last year.

5 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

If that were to hurt or kill someone can the owner be held liable

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

AUG was fortunate that no one got hurt by falling ice in January 2004.  Plumbers had left a dead-end run of pipe on the 9th (top) floor of the Key Bank building.  The temp dropped to -16 overnight, causing the pipe to rupture and pour water into and out of the building, wrecking office furnishings all the way to floor #1.  Icicles 15 feet long and up to a foot diameter were draped on the northerly 1/4 of the building and ice had built up more than a foot thick on the sidewalk, also partially blocking Water Street.  Think of 200-lb icicles falling from nearly 100 feet above.  

Cloud-free this morning.  Low was -1.

Only a few flakes here - too far north. 
Grandkids in SNJ had 4" of clingy beauty, their first snow of the season other than a flurry or two.  

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I survived Icestorm 98, 2-2.50"+ of ice, That was enough for me.

Most disruptive weather event I've experienced, and we only were dark for 4 days.  2nd place was another ice storm on the hills west/north from NYC, precisely 45 years prior to #1.  Ice on Jan 8-9, 1953 wasn't quite as thick as '98 but almost every tree took damage in our NNJ area.  Some trees on the taller hills became "asparagus" stems, bare poles with all branches lying at the stump.  We lost power for 6 days from that one.  The good effect was to trigger my lifelong interest in both weather and trees.

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was epic!  I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”.  That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch.  But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4.  It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25.  My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage.  By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s.   My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!”   I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank.   
 

It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope.   Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard.  I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging.  Snow tapered off close to Noon.  Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10.  The storm paralyzed the megopolis.  It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4.   The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

That winter was the best I've experienced, though 83-84 in Fort Kent is close.  After watching the Wash/NY follies in the snow, we had light snow that began to intensify about bedtime.  Woke up to low teens, S+ and 15"+. finishing with 18.  Friend and I slogged thru the powder for a couple hours without seeing anything (NJ's firearms deer season opener) and headed toward home.  There was my dad standing over a nice little buck about 250 yards from the house.  He then schooled me on field dressing the critter - my first snotty thought, fortunately not spoken, was "Why can't he gut his own deer."  Eight years later when I finally dropped a deer, I was very thankful.

The JFK inaugural blizzard dumped 20" with temps about 10, followed by 2 weeks of cold (NYC's 16 consecutive subfreezing maxima is easily its longest) with small snowfalls, then the strongest of them all.  I called it 24" but nearby sites were closer to 30 - impossible to get a firm depth in the howling wind.  Pack climbed to about 45" (up to 52" in NW NJ) but the cold was gone.  Had a 12" paste bomb on 3/23 to cap the season.

60-61 ended the most wonderful 5 years of big snows:  24" on 3/19-20/56; 18" on 2/15-16/58; 24" paste on 3/20-21/58; 18" on 3/3-4/60.   Other than the Magnificent Seven, my NJ career of snow watching (1950-Jan 1973) had only one definite 18", 2/9-10/69, and 3 in the 15-18 range - 1/12-13/64, 12/24-25/66 (first thundersnow) and 2/7/67.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I see we have already erased 2020 from your memory. 

Never will happen.  RA+ and 50s ate 5" snow in a flash, would've melted 15" if we'd had that much.  Greatest positive departure for any day here, 1° more than 3/22/12.

All snow here, mostly tiny flakes - 2.5" from 0.26" LE.  Broom snow, except for the plow pile I needed to shovel so the letter carrier can access our mailbox.  (The pile is on the maintained road but the smaller truck with only one drive axle can't back up the slope.  Wish they would run the 2-axle driver.)  8" at the stake.

11 hours ago, mreaves said:

I remember taking a trip for work up to a paper mill north of Montreal that spring. The damage was stunning. 

The high-tension towers east of Montreal looked like Godzilla had visited.

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Drive up to Aroostook a couple days after…the ice on the way up was immense in central areas.  And yes, that’s why we went up…the northern part of the county was buried.  It was a scene for sure. 

At the time of the ice storm, we lived about 2 miles southeast from where the Maine Turnpike merges with I-295.  Had ice 1.5"-1.75" and more damage on our 0.8-acre house lot than on the 62 acres of woodland where we've lived since May of 1998.  Much of the precip there bounced rather than stuck.  The greatest accretion I saw was on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, about 10 miles NW from @Dryslot.  Over 2.5", first-year twigs had ice the size of a Pringles can.
The most amazing fact to me, even beyond the NYC/Allagash difference, was the NH "sandwich".  While Gorham was nearly all rain and MWM was setting a new record high temp for January, in between at ~1500-2500 elev. it was total disaster.  When I first saw that the following summer, I thought it was clearcuts.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That look is exactly how the monster I storm happened in Montreal and NNE in 98. This time that would be over SNE/CNE

Jan 98:  Southern PQ, northern VT/NH, central/Downeast Maine and into NB - catastrophic ice.  Perhaps the country's most widespread ice storm disaster.
Meanwhile, Allagash was 10° with S+ (Aroostook totaled 18-27") and NYC had 60 with RA.

Light snow here, 20-21°, approaching 1/2".

51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged.  I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Or when it's snowing despite the sharp shadows and hardwood trees fully green.  

Light snow here.  We should be mostly snow, maybe a few pingers at worst.  GYX says 3-5 plus a bit more after dark.

Coldest start to December since 1989, which was 14° BN for Dec 1-9 (in Gardiner).   First flakes at 10:25 this morning, not including the 0.1" dusting last night.
(Had to use the decimal as T mucks up my formulas.)

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

79-80 sucked but I think the next winter was one of the best I can remember up here.  Seemed like it snowed every other day punctuated by big storms every week - 10 days.   

Might be 81-82.  80-81 was dry in Maine (Farmington co-op's least snowy of 130 winters) with very cold Dec/Jan followed by a spectacular February thaw - CAR had 14.5° for the month, including 9 days of +25-30, 7 of which were consecutive.
81-82 had scads of snow, capped by the April blizzard.