tamarack

0.21" brings the month to exactly 1.00".  Yesterday's gloomy clouds made for a high of only 63.  With a low of 47, the mean was 11° BN.  Looks like July 2026 won't set a new warmest month, though I expect it to finish AN (currently 2.7 AN).

Still at cloudy 65°, not a great sign of convection to come.

15 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Good point.  Yes, it does matter to an extent.  But each site is different.

The below sounds pedantic and getting into the weeds, but I have found an appreciation of the details working w/ numbers, calcuations, and statistics, their rules, and how it applies to the sciences.

We know the history of BOS wx measuring issues -- temp, precip, and snowfall.
So this is not an isolated or new issue.  And then you have the base issue of ASOS temp considered ok as long as it is within +- 2 F.

The point is marginal of error or uncertainty in measurement is rarely given in the mainstream.  Output/results are often treated as absolute fact.  This is not a good scientific practice.  For example, If a number is known to be accurate to the ones place (whole number), expressing it with a decimal (like a tenth) introduces false precision.  This implies you know the value more precisely than you actually do.  So since ASOS is only reliable within +-2 F, see the problem here?  And then you have individual site calibration issues at times independent of the sensor base accuracy. These wx sensors in the field are not high quality super precise like sensors used in a lab.

And a larger issue not directly related to precision/accuracy, artificial heat sources are becoming more of an issue w/ time, both on a local and large scale where many of these climate locations are, so biased warm is not an unreasonable assumption a lot the time.

Yes I know this complicates things, but if you are going to say that an avg temp over a long period of time is exceeded a previous record by tenths of a degree when you have issues like the above, we can't just ignore the limits of measurements and rules of what is precise/accurate.  It gets worse when you see temps calculated out to the hundredths of a degree (global avg temp, as one example)  That is two orders of magnitude above conventional sensor precision!
 

If the variance within that -/-2 F, once one has hundreds/thousands of observations, the averages should be valid to tenths at least.  (Unless there's a consistent bias toward either + or -.)  Works that way in forest inventory, at least.
 

Coldest I could find outside mtn location in New England is 47 at Fox Brook ME.

There's probably about 10 Fox Brooks in Maine.  My guess is the one on T17R12, immediately west from the town of Allagash.

21 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks for the quick advice guys

I'll probably go with a Generac. I'm a little worried about footprint and available space closest to where our gas/electric intake and meters, but I'll get the consultation and see.

It's easy to lose motivation and keep kicking the can, but I guess worth at least seeing if logistically possible and getting a quote.

We had a 13k Generac installed in spring 2020 - we were getting too old to camp out in our own home.  
Our place has a 200 amp entry panel while the house footprint is only 960 sq.ft., 3 bedrooms including the loft, one bath. The unit itself was a bit over $3,000 but we had more like 10k fully installed - dedicated entry panel plus the labor to place and set up the genny.  Since we are far from having gas in the street, we needed to buy 2 100-gallon tanks (nearly 2 weeks running), have them installed plus the underground link to the generator, along with the 200 gallons of propane.  The 10-year guarantee came with the deal.
Other than bi-weekly test runs (5 min) and short runs - <2 hr, we've had only 3 outages, 10 hours in late Sept 2020, 101 hours in Dec 2023 and 7.5 hours 2 days ago.  We pay for the annual servicing, but when lightning blew apart a tall fir 55 yards from the house, also wrecking the electrical link from genny to panel, the techs fixed it with no charge.

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

And this not far over the ME border in 1825?  One of largest wildfires in NAMR history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1825_Miramichi_fire

You go back far enough in recorded history, you see that massive events are not as unusual or atypical as they may seem.

 

The Miramichi fire was mostly in NB but also involved some Maine acres.  Since the Baxter Fire in 1977, Maine's biggest wildfires have been about 1,000 acres.  Lorimer's work on forest history in Maine points to stand-replacement events occurring about 800 years apart for any one area.  The state has very little fire-type forest and a cool moist climate with relatively even distribution by month.

My forestry education at U. Maine included only one semester on wildfire behavior/control.  However, 2 historical fires in Maine illustrated some interesting facets.  The largest of the 1947 fires, one which covered about half of the 200k acres torched that October and wiped out the centers of 2 small towns, was already large when a dry cold front quickly changed the wind from SW to NW.  That almost instantly making the long flank into the head and endangering those on that flank side.  At the time, October had had no measurable rain and the last week of September only 0.08".  Given the diurnal ranges at CF time, the air must've been extremely dry.  PWM temps:
10/23   83   35  CF early afternoon?  That night?
10/24   59   26
10/25   65   20

The 2nd fire was in July 1977 at the SW corner of Baxter Park with some Great Northern land also involved.  In November 1974 a heavy wet snow followed by strong NW wind flattened 3,000+ acres.  Due to Governor Baxter's deed of trust, very little salvage was done beyond roadside cleanup.  June 1977 had been wet, but July had had very little rain when lightning ignited the ultra-seasoned tangle of trees in mid-month, the fire covering nearly all of the blowdown area plus some outside of it, about 3,500 acres in total.  The forest had been heavily stocked with mixed hardwoods and softwoods, not especially old but probably about 30 cords/acre and very few trees remained standing after the 1974 event.  Stems were often piled 12-15 feet high.  The forester who was managing the salvage told me that the flames were able to move downhill at night, thanks to the incredible volume of well-seasoned fuel.

52 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

This coming Monday marks 30 years since MWN's windiest met summer day - the 24-hour average was 99 mph, IIRC.  Friends were getting married at our (then) church in South Gardiner, with an outdoor reception under a large tent, and the wind would work the 4-foot "pins" upward such that we had to monitor them while carrying sledge hammers.

13 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Power back on here at 7:10 PM.  I hit a couple of détours trying to get back to Flying Pond on 41  from Farmington due to downed trees and wires.  

Genny shut down 8:40 PM, 3rd longest run since it was installed in 2020, though 94 hours lower than Dec 2023.  My wife had to switch lanes a couple times on Rt 2 coming home from Farmington, but no detours, just dodging tree tops.

Any of those tall pines around Flying Pond get blown down?  Couple years back, Maine Cabin Masters had to do a full rebuild on a camp near Flying after several big ones smashed it on Dec 18, 2023.

Still running the genny, approaching 3.5 hr.  Read that 6,000+ w/o power in Franklin County.  Its total population is a bit under 30k.

At 1 PM I noted that we were in a severe-warned block, but when I went to find the parameters, GYX had dropped the SVR as the storm had weakened.  First drops at 1:10 then at 1:15 RA+ and gust after gust arrived - trees pushed around like I hadn't seen since Dec 2023, probably well into the 40s.  Strong but short of SVR criteria.  1:18 the genny kicked in (still running now at 2:15) and the heavy rain backed down by 1:20, nearly stopped at 1:25.  0.29" in the gauge, mostly in the 1:15-1:20 span.   During the lighter rain a surprisingly wet hummingbird landed on the feeder only 3 feet from me and had a long drink.  Only 2 strikes, both distant but enough that the dog hid.  I walked out our gravel road, saw that the outage was caused elsewhere, and confirmed that none of the 120-foot-plus pines had fallen.

45 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Took 134 to the New Sharon Dunkin Donuts a few times this week.  Hard to beat the views as far as a quick car ride is concerned.  Taking the kids to hike Bald Mountain Preserve in Camden tomorrow morning.  Usually it's Bald Mountain or Mt Blue in Weld, but I'm out of hiking shape and we are looking to try something a bit different outside of the  Kennebec Highlands trails near us.  

  

Another Bald Mountain to consider is in Oquossoc, part of Rangeley.  It's about 1.3 miles with 900+feet elevation gain to the obs platform, which offers wonderful 360° views - Mooselook Lake to the West and Rangeley Lake to the east, plus lots of mountains.  Last time I climbed it was November 2021, with my son-in-law plus 6 of their 7 kids (the 2-y.o stayed home but the 5 y.o. had a blast) along with 2 neighbor kids.  It's a mile of uphill stroll thru forest then 0.3 miles of steeper, rockier but not vertigo steep, to the summit.

Not much smoke today, but surprisingly breezy along with the forecast lower TD.

12 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Family cabin on Fying Pond

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch.

Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday.  (Or got smoked out)   Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog.  All 3 passed to our west.

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Wow, great reports!  "Leaf salad," LOL.  It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

All the hail that has fallen on our yard in 28 years (going on 29) would fit in a 2-pound coffee can.  I was sad to have missed the 2007 storm, but happy that I still had a garden.  

23 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

For reference, the biggest hail in New England is 4"  in SW ME on 6/1/1986.  Here is the Storm Data entry.
 

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view.  The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007.  Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad.  Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice.  Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen.  Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted.  Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

The thick smoke has moved out but wow, the thickest smoke layer I have ever seen.  Below is the Nest Cam time lapse. It started around 9am.  At that time we had the cirrus overhead with the MCS but skies were basically clear after that.  The temperature has jumped  7F in the past hour.  82/69

I'm not sure why the camera was changing the hue of the sky.  Maybe to adjust for the darkness?  

https://video.nest.com/clip/3886a63d346441b9a07cb5463627d987.mp4

 

The smoke has moved here.  Sun tried and failed to work about noon, and by 1:30 we had that same dingy yellow/brown that dendrite posted.  The only thicker smoke I can recall was when I was working at a forest fire.
No 90s here; possibly not even 80s.

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

And the biggest windthrow events since we moved to Maine in 1973 were straight line winds.  In November of 1974, about 12" of wet snow followed by strong NW gales flattened about 3,000 acres on the SW corner of Baxter Park.  Because Governor Baxter's deeds of trust, the only salvage permitted was along the park roads for safety reasons.  In 1977 all that well-seasoned wood was consumed by a wildfire.  The other 3,000-acre blowdown was only 10-15 miles northwest from the Baxter damage - a powerful southeast storm (we had gusts to 50 at Fort Kent) in late October 1980 tipped the spruce-fir stands on T4R11 (mostly); I saw that area from the air in June of 1981 and it looked like a giant version of oats lodged by an August downpour.  Essentially all that wood was salvaged by Great Northern.

50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

About as useless as today’s event then. An EF3 will probably rip up a few million trees and no one will know. 

I don't know if Maine has ever had a confirmed EF3 (or stronger).

Those nice echoes shrank to only sprinkles when they arrived here, a common phenomenon since late last month.  However, clouds thru late morning mean the sun has a lot of work to do if we're to reach the forecast 93.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tough way to run a torch day. Maine stealing the rain. Looks like a nice storm diving into the CT Lakes in a bit. 

Been limiting screen time…just hit or miss posts. Lots of eye inflammation and migraines. Should probably get a lyme test but that would require going to a dr.

71°

Do it.  Chronic Lyme is something you don't want to acquire - it can mess up all kinds of functions and sometimes be life threatening.  A woman in our church has had chronic Lyme for 5-6 years and it's still causing her lots of problems.

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Christmas Day 2015 baby.  Only time in 70 years without a trace of snow at the CO-OP stake.  Not even ice on the cliffs.  Had a couple nights cold enough to blow a white ribbon, ha.

Farther south at Central Park, Dec 2015 average temp would've been 2.7° AN - for November.  The 50.8° average was 6.2° warmer than any other NYC December since records began in 1869, a stand-alone gap that had to be many SDs ahead of the #2 mark.

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

More like Sherbroke 

That cell has been holding together quite nicely.  Those 70+ dbz colors aren't very common around here.  And there's another one farther NW for our evening entertainment.

Forgot this thread and posted the info below on the Ju-ply one:

Afternoon AFD from GYX.  Tomorrow evening might get interesting.  Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5.  I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area.

Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again
could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5)
of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME
mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the
Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME
and approaching southern NH.

A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and
evening, with its associated cold front approaching the
International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening.
Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and
strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe
thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place,
further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse
rates aloft.

Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep
layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and
high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry
air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports
damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly
potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph.
In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse
rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the
size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough
directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km
SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within
discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard
will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more
linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain
possible.

For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with
multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern
Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale
growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH
and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are
expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the
evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be
noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in
the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based
on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish
after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is
possible overnight.

This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it
becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It
is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing
into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk
areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas,
which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to
falling trees.

Afternoon AFD from GYX.  Tomorrow evening might get interesting.  Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5.  I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area.

Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again
could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5)
of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME
mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the
Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME
and approaching southern NH.

A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and
evening, with its associated cold front approaching the
International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening.
Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and
strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe
thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place,
further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse
rates aloft.

Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep
layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and
high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry
air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports
damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly
potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph.
In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse
rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the
size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough
directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km
SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within
discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard
will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more
linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain
possible.

For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with
multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern
Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale
growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH
and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are
expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the
evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be
noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in
the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based
on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish
after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is
possible overnight.

This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it
becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It
is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing
into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk
areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas,
which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to
falling trees.

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This. "Low end" C4 is probably the best we can do, and everything would have to align to create the conditions to blunt rapid weakening and/or extratropical transition. There's so much that would factor into whether potential is maximized. But we don't need the highest end cane to have high end impacts. 

As I see it, a large and inertially stable C4/C5 hurricane, taking 1) the 1938 track that blasts to Montreal, 2) a hook left to bring the RFQ into NY Harbor, or 3) an eastward slide that brings the RFQ from Groton to Boston are the nightmare scenarios. 

The other, which we don't talk about but I think is increasingly on the table given CC, is a scenario where a tropical entity is drawn up into the region using the canonical synoptic setup to bring it here, but we see a collapse of the steering flow as it arrives and a biblical rainfall results. It has happened in the recent past in the south (Imelda, Florence as examples) but I think Henri, for all its failure to deliver wind, was proof of concept in New England. 

Might add '38's drag race from the Outer Banks to LI, and a mid-September timing when the water temp is at/near peak.

2 hours ago, wx_observer said:

Don't see this too often:

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly.  The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long.  In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake.  Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. 
The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986.  The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.