tamarack

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

36° here. I’m headed to FL for the week so I haven’t paid much attention to the forecast for here. Doesn’t look too bad though. Cool with some showers?  

Same 36 here, but it's my wife going to FL, for her sister's 70th BD.  Lots of heat there (between Ocala and Gainesville) with 90/70 days for at least the first week.

Saw significant (for mid-Sept) color changes on the BGR-and-back drive, white ash 50% color, red maple 10-20% (near full in the swamps), some color on birches and aspens.  Seems a bit early as temps are only slightly BN this month, though the BN rain (50% of avg) since late June might be a factor.

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Looks a little torchy for Pit2, though that might not really matter.  Some decent snows possible.

Worked well here in 2022-23.
       Temp(+/-)  SN22-23  SN avg
DEC      +4.0       23.3"      19.4"
JAN      +9.0*     29.9"     20.2"   *Warmest January, POR 1999-2026
FEB       +1.4       16.3"      21.7"
MAR     +3.0       27.9"      17.0"
Ironic that the month with least AN temp had the only BN snow.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT wanted to end the relentless torch we’ve been in. So you’re now left with a week + straight of rain and mild temps starting  Sunday .  Preparing us for a whole winter of the same thing with little to no snow 

Met summer was warm, 6th warmest of 29 here, but September is running 1° BN so far and the GYX forecast doesn't show a warm-up.

Had 0.27", not a drought buster but the forecast was less than a tenth.  First time since early last month to get more than the forecast.   baby steps

29 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I lived in Bristol CT at the time we r had a solid foot of pretty dense snow before 1.5 inches of sleet and then a quick but wild burst of 2.5 inches on the backside giving us 16 inches. The backside snows were not widespread, we just got lucky in central and I think western CT had it too.  But we had no snow on the ground prior.  I will never forget the wind on the backside of that thing that Sunday with gusts over 50 mph bright sunshine and mid afternoon temperatures in the low teens.

The Farmington co-op reached an incredible pack of 84" after getting 43" from the late Feb 1969 endless snowstorm.  (For 48 years that was Maine's tallest, until Chimney Pond reached 94" in 2017.)  Second place is 56", recorded in both 1971 and 1993.  In that latter winter, they had only a trace on the ground at their Jan 31 obs - 7 AM at that time.  Feb-Mar brought a total of 97", with Feb storms of 13", 14" and 17" followed by a 15" dump and 18" from the superstorm, to build all 56" in just 6 weeks.  The 12" storm early in April capped the season.

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Floyd wasn’t a huge deal imby, but it’s my earliest tropical impact memory. I remember the wind blowing hard when we were outside during recess and power going out at school—the first and only time that happened to me.

I remember being glued to TWC as it came up the coast and overhead. The moon was out as the decaying center passed. Those were good days. 

 

5.88" here with gusts in the 40s, our most recent significant TC.  Only 0.11" from being our biggest rain event, which came in June 1998, our first full month after moving here.  

On 9/16/2026 at 2:51 AM, codfishsnowman said:

Superstorm 93 was epic on so many levels. The certainty almost a week out. It had been a decade since I had seen March snow that didn't just accumulate on grassy surfaces. The sunny but cold calm quiet day before and the craziness at the gas stations and supermarkets.  I was 19 and worked for Stop and Shop at the time.  It was the first time I had een more than a foot of snow since the Feb 83 storm.

Feb-Mar 1993 was epic, with 7 storms 7" to 14.5", totaling (with some small events) over 80".  The superstorm brought the pack to 31", tallest in our 13 winters in Gardiner.  That capping event was a bit disappointing at our place, if a double-digit snowfall can disappoint.  Listening to "1-3 feet with life-threatening conditions" had me primed for a storm of the lifetime.  Instead, we had 10.3" of heavily rimed 6:1 flakes, almost the lowest report in New England and 3rd biggest of the winter.  (BHB and Block Island had 10.0".)  Temps during the storm were upper teens to 20.  The storm did bring wind 30-45 mph.  A favorite wind report at 8 AM - BGR was calm while 50 miles to the SE, Mt. Desert Rock reported 60 knots.

5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Latitude can help.  January 2023 was +8.8, warmest for that month in 28 winters, but had 29.9" snow, 9.7" AN.  The 4 months DJFM ran +4.7 with each month AN - Feb closest at +1.5 (and least snowy of the 4).  The snow season total was 101.2" (avg currently 88.4") and 96.3" came during those months, 123% of average.

That said, the only very strong Nino since moving here (2015-16) was our worse snow winter, 48.2".

12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

1.92 is not 2….. 

Looking from my 0.23" total, 1.92" seem like 'about 2'.

Except for the lack of rain, today was perfect early fall wx - sun, 70, light breezes.

The morning's forecast for here of 1/4"-1/2" has been lowered to 01"-0.25" this afternoon.  It seems that the latest QPFs immediately before events get reduced from earlier forecasts 90% of the time.

Sandy River is below the 10th percentile.  Last Thursday's 0.40" has come and gone by.

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We're at 34.76" to date here.  Lowest of 29 water years is 34.44" for 10/01-9/02, 2nd lowest 35.86" the following year(s).  I think we'll get more than 1.1" by the 30th to climb into 3rd driest.  Next step is 38.08" last year and I think that getting another 3.32"+ this month is unlikely.

39 this morning, season's first sub-40, and now struggling to get past the mid-50s.

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..and to think millions of people voted for him not just one time but 3 times...that is all you or anyone else needs to know about those people.. 

Many of those millions were voting against HRC, Biden and Kamala more than voting for Trump.

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino?  The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer.

See here:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer.  Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case.

So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino?   Such as <gasp!> the upcoming winter for the CONUS?  Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted?

I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that?  @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario.  "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10.  Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!"  I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! 

Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference between the AO and NAO?  You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything.  The graph looks a lot like NAO phases.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation
 

2009-10 was the winter that BWI had 7" more snow than CAR.   100-year event?  Even longer?

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The deepening rate of the storm was incredible.  BOS recorded min pressure of 965 mb.

I think 955 mb is the record non-TC pressure for New England, set at BID 3/7/1932.

Bliz of 93 peaked at 960 mb over Mid-Atlantic and filled a bit to 963 once over SNE.

For eastern US it's probably the Cleveland Crusher in Jan 1978.  IIRC, that reached low 950s.

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What about something like this?  G103mph at DE-lux-BURY MA (that's your nickname for the location, not mine!) 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_nor'easter|

G113 mph Truro MA.  That's among the highest gusts ev-A recorded at sea level in a nor'easter in New England.  Probably the 2/2/1976 one had gusts this high on the ME coast (the one that flooded downtown BGR).  And of course, @CoastalWx fav -- Dec 9, 2005 ("what's that roar noise outside?" -- said by Scott waking up in the aftn in GHG!).
 

Southwest Harbor (Penobscot Bay) recorded a gust of 115 mph in that storm.  The 957 mb reading at CAR that day is a contender for lowest pressure in New England from a non-tropical storm.  At Fort Kent we had 1.5" of rain plus 0.5" flurries with wind gusting to 50 and temp 46/-11.  At 1 PM it was 44, 4 PM 14, 6 PM -6.  By the next day the ice holes on most roads were awesome.

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Sometimes quite localized areas get repeatedly hammered.  Looks at just RI, ern MA, an Downeast ME Jan-Feb 2015.  It was relentless!  But regarding snowstorms and the synoptic scale, the odds of them all just whaling on this small part of New England for 6 weeks? That's pretty incredible, YET it happened!

Pack at Machias (20' asl) reached 74" in March 2015, likely a top-10 depth in Maine records, and by far tops for saltwater shoreline sites.  

August numbers:
Avg max:   76.2   +1.4    Warmest, 87 on the 6th
Avg min:    54.9   +1.7    Coolest, 43 on the 31st
Mean:        65.5   +1.5
Met summer:  64.6    +1.2    6th warmest of 29

Precip:   2.46"    -1.58"   Wettest day, 1.05" on the 3rd

Like July, August 2026 started very warm then spent the rest of the month near normal.
Days 1-11 were 4.4° AN, had the 6 warmest days and had 1.83" rain
Days 12-31 were 0.2° AN, had no days warmer than 78 and had only 0.63" rain.

20 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That spring and summer climate is generally brutal . Ocean temps prohibit swimming and now it’s a huge drought area 

This from one who goes running in shorts at sub-50 temps.
During my first visit to Maine (Boothbay Harbor/Spruce Head 1952) I went ocean swimming any time I could get a parent down to the shore to play lifeguard.  Of course, 6-year-olds don't care about water temps until they turn blue.    When we lived in Gardiner we had a number of visits to Popham or Reid State Parks where I did some body surfing.  I will admit that I've only once found Maine salt water that was actually warm, near Otter Cliffs at Acadia on Hot Saturday (8/2/75) when BHB touched 100.

It’s typically chilly with temps in the 60’s / 70’s. Water temps in 50’s .Why would anyone want or like that in the summer at the beach ? 

Maybe at Cutler Harbor.  Midcoast and points south usually reach ocean temp in the mid-60s.

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Maine coast. It’s a horrific climate for warmth and summer lovers ..and now rain 

Pit2 is about 33 miles NE from PWM and 15 miles up the Kennebec estuary, which is mostly fresh water that far up - only when all the rivers feeding Merrymeeting Bay are very low does muc salt gets there.  PWM is 2 miles from Casco Bay, and its 1991-2020 norm is 69".  2001-30 so far is 65", both close to ORH.  Pit2 probably gets 5-10" more than the Jetport, though I'm not sure it beats ORH for retention.

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

61 years ago right now we were advecting in, arguably, our coldest August airmass in recorded history. 

PWM touched 33 on August 31.  Next coldest August temp is 38.  MWN had a couple inches of snow.

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

How can you look at all modeling for next week and think Stein? It could rain several days . 

Maybe it's because we've had 2-3 flood watches over the past 15 days and have had only 0.18" over that period?

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly cannot recall a more boring summer. Been great weather overall, just boring AF. At least locally.

Fitting, as it follows the biggest bundle of meh that was 2025, probably the most boring since moving here in 1998.  Maybe 1991 or 92 in Gardiner was equally meh, or 1973, our first year in Maine.  (NNJ had an even higher meh rate, of course - at least since the 1956-61 pile of big snowstorms.)

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks like another dry cold fropa.

Huge COC tomorrow. Dews well into the 40s up here. Dare I say fall-like in the morning?

Of course, though we got all of 0.03" last evening, along with a near miss TS that terrorized our dog.  We've had 5 rain events in the past 2 weeks for a grand total of 0.18".   drip, drip, drip

The 2 most recent events that promised widespread rain (a couple days prior to each) totaled 0.15" here, so I'm not very optimistic for today/tomorrow.  Probably just enough clouds to block our view of the lunar eclipse.  We're about 1-for-10 on lunars, usually due to clouds but sometimes because we don't care to get up at 2 AM to watch.  This one peaks here shortly after midnight.

Reported measurable precip to Cocorahs each of 8/23,24,25.  Unfortunately, those 3 "rainy" days totaled 0.04".  drip, drip, drip