tamarack

Pretty consistent forecast for our highs from GYX.
SAT      53/34
SUN     50/34
MON    50/33
TUES   50/35
WED    50/36
THUR  50/37
FRI       50/37
Also 30% PoP going to 50% Tues-Fri.

Some showers approaching, maybe with a handful of graupel, maybe it dries up before getting here.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Just don't bury it off trail or that's where it will remain unless you can get a skidder to get it out...........

When I worked in the northern tip of Maine, I would always be sitting on my snowshoes when riding - several times had to use them as shovels to unstick the machine - usually the nose-heavy '73 Everest.  (Never had to use them to walk out from a paunched snowmobile - fortunately.  Before my 1st ride there, an experienced co-worker noted that one could ride in one hour farther than one could walk out in a day.)

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Maples are mostly sticks here now, but yeah…the oaks went quick. They’re starting to turn more brown than gold here now. 

Sapling oaks are reddish brown while the 24" by 90 ft oak is yellow-brown, also fully turned and about 25% leaf drop.  Other than the oaks, only the understory beech have significant leaves among the deciduous trees.  They'll be the last to drop, some hanging on into spring.

Thick frost this morning, 29-30°.  Oct 24 average is 52/32 so today should finish near to that.

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do we know why that is? 

Don't really know - maybe they estivate during the warmest part of the year?

15 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I was just saying neither me or the dog have had one in a while after getting a bunch in the beginning of summer. Hope it stays that way down here.

The late summer tick hiatus came to light in 2019 when Maine Public Lands annual 2-day "peer review" field trip was set in southern Maine, including Swan Island with its overpopulation of deer.  Nearly 40 attended the mid-August excursion and not a single tick was reported.  That 7/15-9/10 period has remained tick-free, and this year it was 6/20-9/20.  May that period be extended.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maine sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony. 

Cat 3 in Casco Bay.  (0.1% chance)

After seeing no ticks from late June thru mid September, the little horrors are back in force.  Yesterday's woods walk included pushing through some dense sapling stands and I brought home (and dispatched) 10 deer ticks.

0.79", with about half coming from a 5-minute downpour in mid afternoon.  Eight miles WNW, West Farmington cocorahs reported 1.42".  They must've had 10-15 minutes in the RA++.

17 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So there are two mud seasons?

Should've written "6th season".    
Once the trees stop sucking water from the soil, the first multi-inch rain event usually shuts down timber harvesting almost completely.  Only twice have I seen warm-season conditions progress into frozen ground without a mud time, 1976 and 2013.  This year might be a contender if freeze-up comes early, given the drought.

Bright sun today after 4 straight cloudy ones - that produced only 0.11" precip.

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

Mud season - mid-October until freeze-up, NNE's 5th season.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well it was precipitating. The airport ASOS had a brief period of reported snow between the rain obs. The temp was around 37-38 at the time. My skepticism was whether or not it was actually snow of if was just cold rain and the instrumentation was reporting snow in error. Sometimes they do that with marginal temps and light precip. Vis only got down to 8-9 miles too.

Maybe some graupel?

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Not sure if it was legit, but FVE briefly reported -SN at the ASOS this morning. 

There are echoes overhead there, and it's at 47.3° lat. and 985' asl.  Their average date for first flakes is probably about now.  (Unfortunately, the airport apparently doesn't report snow.)

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

My oaks took a major color turn overnight. This wind is ripping most of the leaves off the other trees now. My armstrong red maple is a deep red/burgundy right now. 

Our 20-foot-tall sapling is mostly changed.  The 90-foot by 24" specimen is just beginning to turn.

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Had snow OTG in 2011 but it was in low 40’s and melting . Have never had it snow on that day . For whatever reason that first 8-9 day period of Nov in history almost always is mild . So it’s a very low chance. But if I look at progs this year.. can see how it’s not a zero chance . Normally it is 

Your B-Day in 2002 was memorable here, though with only a trace of snow on the ground.  It was the first day of Maine's firearm deer season and at dawn it was 14° with gusts 30+.  That would be ho-hum in January but was quite chilly in mid Autumn.  (Punched my ticket with a nice critter the day after T-Day.)

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the biggest wind event you’ve had there?

Strongest gust, mid 50s, came in a June 2005 TS and toppled a half dozen popple trees.  However, December 18, 2023 - four hours of 50+ gusts plus a storm total of 4.21" - was a far more destructive event, causing many times more tree damage on our woodlot.  Floyd (Sept 1999) also had gusts approached 50.

Greatest lifetime winds:
1-A:  Nov. 25, 1950. the Great Appalachian Gale
1-B:  Dec. 31, 1962, backside NW wind from the blizzard that ate BGR.  Both events reached near 70 mph and caused major damage.
3:  Aug. 19, 1991, "Bob" - 60+ gusts.
4:  Aug. 28, 1971, "Doria" - near 60
5:  April 7, 1982, East Coast April blizzard, also near 60

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

There was one in Feb. 2010 iirc, though could be off. all rain. 70-80mph gusts near MHT and we lost power for 8 days.

Southern Maine had powerful winds - was interesting watching (on the tube) the waves blasting water 40 feet high then near -instantly being carried off by the wind.

We had little wind this far inland, just 33-35° RA on the same (modest here) NE wind that powered NYC's 20.9" snowicane.

13 hours ago, metagraphica said:

Interesting stat IMBY: The temp has been between 53 and 56 for over 24 hours now.

At least the power is back on now.

We had the same 3° (57/54) on Sept 27 during the 2.64" dump - smallest diurnal range we've had in September, though we've had 2° ranges in some other months and June 3, 2001 had 54/53, our only "onesie".

As expected, we had little rain or wind, 0.10" and maybe a "gust" of 10 mph. 
90%+ leaf drop here.  The big oak is still mostly green and there's a few sugar maples with 50% retention though most of that species is near leafless.

Thanks - but recommend starting simple.  I enjoyed seeing the blow-by-blow records by participants, but I'm sure that added lots of formulas to make it work smoothly.

Still dry (as forecast, maybe a bit tonight).  Just enough wind to wiggle the few remaining intact leaves.

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mins

Lots more "fake" readings in SNE than the "real" ones like Mt. Tolland.  Maybe the hills are really the "fake" places.

Low of 25 here with thick frost and 1/16" ice on the washtub.

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

35F

Legit cold.  3,800ft is showing 24F with gusts of 40-45mph and wind chills in the single digits.

MWN 16°, 54G61, WCI -9.  Brisk.

Last night's stove load retained enough embers to restart without needing the lighter this morning - first time of the season.  We'll see which side of 25 tomorrow morning in our rad pit.

6 hours ago, tamarack said:

We lived in Gardiner then, 9 miles south from AUG.  Oct. 6, 1995:  51/45, 2.33".

Tiny shower about 8 last evening 0.01", almost mocking.  Dumped precisely 1.00" from the Stratus this morning and radar suggests a final total near 1.5".   

The juicy echoes to our west when I sent the above post fell apart before reaching here.  Event total is 1.17", a modest overperformer as the forecast had us in the 0.5-1.0 bracket.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was up at UML back then, Merrimack Valley, which I know you're familiar with that setting ha.

We started getting deep radiationally cold nights with cold still air dead fall of foliage from around peak color dates on...  I recall that specifically around mid October, 24 F low type mornings with leafs flitting down.  The cold clips the leaf stems, probably because phase change expanding the freezing water fractures.  There was new leaf litter directly beneath trees while sloped morning sun cut ineffectively sideways.  It was annoyingly cold having to crossing the Univ Ave bridge expanse for early classes that year.  The water trickles that run down the granite blocks along the north/shadow side of the aqueduct's fascia had begun to freeze - I recall thinking that must be early behavior.  Well before Halloween and by the end of the month ... the days were no longer rising past the upper 40s. The chilly days and shadow side the ice survived, still in tact late in afternoons.

Something was in the air that the season to hurriedly leaving warmth beyond.  In early November, we did have a day - I think - that made a run at 65, but it did not last. In fact, the next cool down was the first 'smells like snow' air.  As it were, we had a mix event that put down 1-2" of sleet mixed with mangled snow and cold rain.   That froze to the ground as it went even colder by mid month, when we had another more significant 3-5" sleet and snow event.  Temps tanked around then.  Clearly a western limb -NAO circulation mode was holding proxy over the temperatures, SE Can and New England.  I think if memory also recalls, this was not digging SW into the CONUS very far at that time.   It was sort of gradated, with winter here, prior to Thanks Giggedy, while still trying to hold on to mild conditions at Pittsburgh type of thing.  But it was pressing... by early December, everyone was bricked earth with a lot places having snow pack all the way to PA.   We were some 15" of snow pack, in single digit cold By Dec 10, and the "MRF" model runs were consistently producing snow events out to the end of the 10 day visions.  

As it were, in the Merrimack Valley, we really lost the ground around Nov 15-ish for good... did not see it until the big winter bust up thaw in latter January.   At one time we had 33" on the level snow pack shortly after the "Megalopolis Blizzard".  In fact, there was one more coastal that put down 6-8" wet snow over top, and I remember a lot of local media headline warnings to clear snow from any roof loading.  *8" of blue glory on a historic pack tends to cause structural failures..etc...  But during that last event, there were already signs that a big change was right there in the charts and indices, and well...  two Minnesota bombs and 10 days later, all that snow was down to just field puddles, while steam rolled off snow piles.  

Winter tried to make a comeback in February... and did - but with the memory of the early loaded blitz so awesome, it eclipses the memory some.  I remember still getting wet snow events into early April and not liking it that late.   But I never do... I'm usually pretty checked out by March.  

1995-96 was by far (29" ahead of #2) our snowiest winter of 13 at Gardiner, though the thaws left SDDs in 5th place.  Five straight months began with cold and snow, finished with mild and wet.  Cherrypicking the dates illustrates the contrasts.  The top line shows the data for Dec 1-21, Jan 1-16, Feb 1-19, Mar 1-11 and April 1/14 - total of 81 days.  Lower line combines the remainders of those months, 71 total days.

Avg max    Avg min   Depart.   Precip    Snow     SN/day
   26.4            9.1        -6.4        11.56"     127.4"    1.57"
   44.1           24.2       +4.8       14.58         9.2      0.13"

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.

We lived in Gardiner then, 9 miles south from AUG.  Oct. 6, 1995:  51/45, 2.33".

Tiny shower about 8 last evening 0.01", almost mocking.  Dumped precisely 1.00" from the Stratus this morning and radar suggests a final total near 1.5".   

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

If that evolution plays out it will certainly put a dent in the rainfall deficits 

We had 2.64" on Sept 25-26 and the local rivers are nearly back to the levels before that event.  Maybe 6" spread over 2-3 weeks would have a significant effect on rivers and groundwater.