tamarack

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

It's going to be that type of event where we may not know until it actually happens, if it does.  The fact that the GFS/ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET has shifted the heaviest QPF into NNE, that makes it more likely.  Look at the cold 850 temps NW of the 850 low.

It's never going to look like a lock, even close to it, for snowfall this time of year.  Fun 'n games watching noodles and cats paws on the car windshield.  Scott may just travel to NNE for one last look at winter 25-26!   LOL.

The 00z ECMWF for after the weekend event?  Omega "Supreme" does not want to go away.  Not 1, not 2, but 3 more cold 500 lows NEUS!  And another weekend potential ruined June 6-8 w/ back-to-back coastals. 

Morning discussion from GYX noted 0°C or colder 850s and the possibility of some graupel and/or snow at elevations this weekend.  Sunny 70s here today.

Rain shut off right at noon, 0.87" total.  Need about 1/2" to reach the May average.  Thought things would clear but there's been more clouds than sun this afternoon.

31 this morning, light frost and no damage to the fruit tree blossoms.  Median here for spring's latest frost is 5/23 - might hit that tomorrow morning (low chance).

Deep blue this morning, leaf development has leaped from <25% to >75% since last Friday - instant spring.

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

A 75:1 ratio….sounds almost impossible?  But I guess not. That’s truly impressive. 

That had been my thinking.  When I vertically inserted the snow shovel, I could see it 3-4" into the stuff - not really surprising for snow that's 98.6% air.

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The January fluff bomb had more wind here I think…now it wasn’t true blizzard…but we had very low visibility’s for a good amount of time in that one…with windy conditions at times…went out for a walk at the height(probably was a mistake lol), and couldn’t walk back to the house forwards, which was heading north into the snow, due to the wind driven snow here..and the cold was ferocious with 5 degree air temps, and  sub zero wind chills.  So that’s more what I mean. I took a little video…but I doubt I could upload it here. 

From 7 AM thru 1:30 PM on Jan 26, we enjoyed some of the prettiest, and slowest falling (<2 ft/sec) feathers we've seen - 6.0" in 6.5 hours.  Walking on that 6" was like walking on air; I figured that the 6" had less than 0.2" LE and was shocked that it melted to only 0.08", or 75:1.  Twice I've had storms of 4.5" with just 0.10" LE, 45:1, and once a 1" dusting had only 0.01", but 6" at 75:1 was something I thought impossible. 
Jan 25-27 data:
25:    2  -13   0.17"    2.0"   15"
26:   10   -1   0.55"   17.0"   28"   (peaked at 30")
27:   15   -4   0.05"   0.6"   25

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

uhmm ... can you help me parse out this sentence ^   ?

Maybe scratch out the 2nd thru 5th words?

54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Huh….?    You are wrong.  
 

2025-2026 winter was pretty dam good, two blizzards(one with single digit temps of 5-6 degrees), a 12/26 evening 9”er also with frigid temps. and very good cold all season..with good pack….that was pretty dam good imo.  

Even though we finished a couple inches below our average and missed the 2nd blizzard (0.2" - OceanStwx thanked me for establishing the north cutoff ), it was still a plus winter.  Most sustained cold since 18-19, good retention, 8.5" on 12/24 plus the Jan 25-27 fluff bomb, 19.6" from 0.77" LE.  Can't label it as blizzard as there was very little wind.

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

So dry all the sudden.

72/37 for 29% RH.

Time to plant veggies, which usually means bye-bye rain.  Happens about 2/3 of years, with the other 3rd like 2005.  Or 2025 - 9 straight cloudy days 5/17-25 and 19-25 temps were 50.6/40.4 (that max is 16° BN) with no sun.  Pollinator punishment.

Yesterday's 16° AN (82/57) brought the month's temp right up to the average.

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

A waterspout also occurred not far offshore from Rye Beach.

When I saw this and the radar loop, I said, "you've GOT to be kidding me, since when in New England does a tornadic supercell form on a edge of a gust from from a decaying squall line?!"  And SSTs on the NH coast are still pretty cold in mid-May, yet that did not impede things at all.

I think the only other time I was flabbergasted like this was the two mini-supercell tornadoes occurred in the Brunswick ME area on Thanksgiving in 2005.  This was after a couple of inches of snow has just fallen here in the previous several hours!
 

The Brunswick tornado was a brief ER-0 event about 4 miles SW from town center, and did minor damage.  The Phippsburg tornado formed just past noon about 15 miles SE from the first one.  It was an EF-1 with winds to 100 mph, tracking 3.8 miles with width to 75 yards.  Many trees were blown down and several buildings damaged, but no injuries were reported.
Meanwhile 65 miles north, we had moderate snow and 20s at the same time. 
Day's data:   27°   14°   0.39"   3.8"     The snow fell straight down, barely a breath of wind.

The official report:

A pair of waterspouts/tornadoes moved northward from the Gulf of Maine during the early afternoon of Thanksgiving Day. The waterspouts/tornadoes formed along a warm frontal boundary that was associated with an area of low pressure which was bringing snow to much of the state of Maine.

The first waterspout/tornado moved ashore over the southern tip of the Phippsburg peninsula near Bald Head, crossed Small Point, moved over The Branch, went ashore again on Hermit Island, lifted, reformed over Tottman Cove, and then went ashore once again near West Point.

The second tornado/waterspout reportedly touched down as a waterspout south of Brunswick in Middle Bay, then moved ashore near the northern end of Mere Point Neck, moved back over water at the northern end of Maquoit Bay, then moved back over land and crossed Bunganug Road before dissipating.

Just now, dendrite said:

Highs through 2p

Looks like EWR has that 97.   Warmth reached into Aroostook - HOU 82 at 2 PM, was 84 earlier.  Didn't get to northern ARO - FVE tops at 53 with RA.

41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It has happened before.  Highest temp in May (maybe even April for someone on here one year?)

April 28, 2009 hit 89, tops for that year.
In 28 years, we've had two months tying on 3 occasions and in 2010 the warmest (88°) was reached 5 times - May, July(2), August and September, hence the fractions below:
APR:    1
MAY:   3.2
JUN:   10
JUL:    9.4
AUG:   3.7
SEP:    0.7
Hottest here of 93 occurred on July 3 and September 9, 2002.

Low of 44, now approaching 80, but clouds have dimmed the sun.  We've gone from 5% leaf-out on Friday to 50% now and climbing; might be the quickest leaf-out I've seen.

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Same here. Forests definitely help with cooling. Really hating all the stripped Forests to put up Solar Panels farms

Some of that in Maine, but nearly all the panels are being installed on idle farmland.  Only advantage comes when the panels' life are done - quicker to revert the land to farming than to create a mature forest.

10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Thanks for quantifying it w/ hard stats.  I had never looked them up.

So clearly the driest period in the last 60 years in the NEUS?

Looking at NYC and other (somewhat shorter record) sites, I'd put the mid-60s as the driest in a century or more.

10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, the last real multi-year drought in New England was in the 1960s, and yet the media has turned the word "drought" into a fear-mongering term, acting like its very existence is somehow atypical.

Every time we get into a extended period (up to 6 months) dry here, it always seems to correct itself after this time.  But that's not good for the fear-mongers, they just invented "weather whiplash" to still be negative/gloom and doom.  What, do they expect gentle April showers all the time and no drought conditions ever?

The 1960s drought in the Northeast 'peaked' in 1965.  Thay year was the driest on record for all 3 SNE states, plus NJ, PA, DE.  NY's record occurred in the drier region in the Allegheny Plateau, but the NYC records picture the drought clearly:
1931-60 norm:  44.24"  
Driest ranks, 1869-on:
1962   37.15"    21st
1963   34.28"   5th  (4"+ event in November prevented a new record.)
1964   32.99"   2nd
1965   26.09"   1st   (Remains of Camille doused one VA town with that much in 5 hours.)

1966 was tracking close to 1965 thru August.  Then 5.54" fell on 9/21/66, the beginning of the drought's end.
           JAN-AUG    SEP-DEC
1965     19.05"         7.04"
1966     19.79"       20.21"

54 minutes ago, 1985 Polar Bear said:

Maine seemed to have fewer juicy SWFE this past winter (just the one big one), which can be jackpots for western / northern areas.

The one big event, Jan 25-27, parlayed a modest 0.77" LE into 19.6" of fluff, ratio 25:1.   Next biggest was 8.5" on Christmas Eve.
Only once before have I recorded a storm of 15"+ with ratio above 16:1, at Fort Kent in December 1981 - 15.5"/0.68" for 23:1

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

Outside of the upslope sites, NNE did somewhat poorly, especially CAR.  Their 86.4" ranks 74th of 87 and failed to have a 10"+ event for just the 4th time in 60+ years.

56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The word drought and New England should never be used in the same sentence. 

You're too young to have experienced the 1960s.  

1 hour ago, tunafish said:

I know it feels like 90% of connective storms fizzle by the time they reach the coast, but I don't think that's a new thing, or that it's gotten worse in recent years.  Missing 0.20" on a single cell a dozen times a year isn't going to make that much of a difference, I don't think.

But your overall point is clearly accurate - the coastal has experienced more dry conditions than most places in the state.

We're far enough from salt water to avoid significant marine influence.  However, with a warming climate one might expect more convective events, but the opposite has been occurring.  Our average for thunder days is 15 but in recent years it's been lower, and just 5 days last year, only the 2nd year below double digits (8 in 2010).  Met summer had only 2 instead of the average of 10.  Merely stochastic variation?  (SSS - we moved here 28 years ago on May 15.)

Had 1.28" between 9 last evening and 7:30 this AM, a very pleasant surprise given the modest forecast yesterday afternoon.  With that drink, the coming 70s should bring an explosion of growth - leaf out here is a bit behind the average.

Had 0.20" 6 PM thru now, one blip of color might hit us for a few cents.  Coming home from BGR we saw dark clouds ahead as we left I-95 in Newport.  Adjusted the wipers about 30 times in 45 miles after that, mainly between interval and stop (don't like the squawk of wiper vs. dry glass).  Forecast for this aft, tonight, tomorrow - less than 0.1" thrice, even with PoPs of 60/60/80%.  The 1-2" is staying west and south.

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

3 brutal days here…W Th F. Mostly 40s/low 50s and rain. I don’t think we’ll warm sector this evening.

If we have to endure 3 awful May days, I wish it would RAIN - the 20 months 9/24 thru 4/26 have racked up a deficit of 21.2".  Not mid-1960s but troubling.  Last week's 3-day soaking rain dropped a modest 0.62"; 2" would be nice.

Low of 27.  Had full sun thru 8 AM, now (9:45) more cloud than blue.

80s in May happen most years here - only 4 of 28 failed to reach 80 and the median for May's warmest is 85.

As for this week, highs 50s-60s and frost advisory the next 2 mornings.

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

You do realize that since April 30, New England has had measurable pcpn every day.  Not a lot, but it's not bone dry.   More stuff today.  Perhaps a NZW TRW?

Some rain every day this month, current total 0.99".  At that rate we would finish May about 0.9" BN.  If so, it would make 11 BN months in the most recent 12.  April had 98% of average thanks to 1.18" on the 30th.  The previous 10 months (June-March) were at 61% of average, and met summer's 5.29" was the driest of 28 by 1.95", and only 41% of average.  Things aren't bad now, but another such summer might cause problems.

The afternoon line of precip split north and south in order to miss here.  Were not progged to get much anyway.

Frosty 26 this morning, but at least the sun is out.  First 8 days this month has had only 31% of available sunshine; average is 42%.  We've had rain on all 8 days, but are running only 90% of average.  Tuesday's high of 78 changed the sugar maple buds to small leaves, which haven't expanded much since then.  Looks better 20th onward.

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

My buddies and me did the Franconia Ridge in early May 1975 with snow showers at the base but thankfully dry on the ridge.  Quite the slog through areas of deep snow in the way up via the falling waters trail.  Of course a few months later we had legendary heat.  Some of the guys are gone but most still here albeit many in steep decline.  I’m enjoying good fortune while it lasts although my spinal stenosis and aches and pains in joints occasionally plague me.  My philosophy is push through what you can…

Absolutely.  My serious climbing days (Katahdin, Little Bigelow, Goose-eye) are done, and my most recent significant adventure was Oquossuc Bald, between Rangeley and Mooselook Lakes in 2020 with SIL and grandkids ages 5 to 14, left the 2-y.o home. Unfortunately, that November Saturday was spitting snow with lousy visibility.  Only 1.3 miles and 900+ elev gain but most comes in the rocks of the final 0.3 miles.

Cloudy 50s with some drops, good day to help replace the ramp at our church.