tamarack

29 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.

 

One more time on the fringe?  Or like today with breezy blue sky.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

Two good storms here, 24" and 13.2", but by Dec 15 we'd gotten 51% of the snow season total, which was about 15" BN.  January did have our coldest afternoon highs since Fort Kent on 14-15, with -11 and -8, and a stiff breeze.  (The -11 was spoiled by the -7 at my previous evening's observations.)

where's my projected 35" over the next 7 days????

Maybe move the decimal point one space to the left?

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nasty day today here….mid 30s and overcast. A few weenie flakes too, esp during morning. 

Same here but without the flakes.  Sun tried but failed.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Been a pretty lackluster month up here compared to Jan, 3.3".

3rd year with a stinker month within met winter?   
Feb 24, 3.7"
Jan 25, 5.6"  
All the above maps leave this area in the north fringe, though it's 3-4 days out.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Feb up here so far has been garbage, Need these systems to get further north, Would like to see this next one track over Ack this weekend.

So far, we're running behind Feb 2024 (our driest Feb of 27) for QPF.  Have not had a truly powerful storm this cold season here - closest probably the southeast rainer on Dec 19.  One could dispute my comment, citing 19.6" on Jan 25-27, but that was a product of freaky high ratios.  LE of 0.77" and 10 mph breezes don't spell powerful to me. 
(That said, the 6 hours of floating feathers 7A-1P on Jan 26 is the prettiest spell of snowfall I can remember.  That 6" addition was 98.5% air, far beyond any air/water ratio for a snowfall greater than one inch.)

I've seen little snow devils but nothing like those pics.  The only dust devil I've seen came in the hot summer of 1966, where I was cooking burgers and dogs in the lodge at Curtiss-Wright's employee lake resort in NNJ.  On a hot but dry and near-calm August, the small (<20 ac) lake was suddenly full of whitecaps from a north wind gusting probably to 40 down the long axis of the lake.  The spinner formed at the south end of the lodge, moved against the wind behind the building, then headed across the water.  On the way it tossed the thick cushion from a 6-foot lounge chair about 50 feet up into an oak while flipping the wooden chair end-over-end to the water's edge, also flipping the 14-foot rescue boat.  It picked up the thigh-high steel base of an outdoor ash tray and carried it round and round across the lake and 30-40 feet off the water before hitting the far side woods and dissipating.
My guess on why it formed was that the wind passing north-to-south past the lodge caused low pressure at the south end of the building, and air curling into the "vacuum" started to whirl and kept on spinning for several minutes.  The sudden wind itself lasted less than 15 minutes.

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

11 and 19 years ago today is the V-Day Blizzards of 2007 and 2015. I just finished replotting and fixing up 2015, 2007 ill do later. Also another new L. Northeast map for 2015 w/ climate sites.

This was quite a big bust here we were under blizzard warnings for 4-8", got a quick 2" on the front end WAA snows then nothing with barely any wind (at least when it was snowing). 2nd part clipped E CT and destroyed Middlesex down to Plymouth and Bristol counties. 2015 was another one of the storms where i look at the radar and its hard to believe a widespread 14-22" fell over E MA but those rates were pretty insane for the brief time it snowed during part 2. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-14-15-2015

2007 was essentially a sleet storm for most of CT especially south of 84. Most of those snow totals are pure sleet. Snow totals overall are not that impressive >12" until you get into the Berkshires and Catskills in Ulster Co. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-14-2007

 

VD07 was great here, 15.5" from 1.80" LE at temp near 10, especially appreciated as we'd gone nearly 2 years w/o a 6"+ snowfall.

GYX has called VD15 their Valentine's Day Massacre.  The night before, the forecast was 18-24 plus a blizzard warning.  The day shift lowered snow to 12-18 and kept the blizz. 
Verified at 1.5", the 4th and final snowstorm that winter to verify at 1/8 (or less) of the forecast's low end.  Meanwhile, SNE got buried and Machias, at 20' elev, measured 25".

Looking forward to March 2001.  The early storm was fine, 9.5", but nothing special.  By month's end we'd had 55.5" with 48" pack on 3/31 as 35" came after the equinox.

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention but I wasn’t really expecting light snow today. It’s nothing huge but always welcome. Well, at least until mid to late March when the golf jones starts kicking in. 

Radar says it's snowing here, but the dry air is eating away, and no flakes have reached the ground yet.  Hit -3 earlier this morning.

14 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

wasn't that cold spell that the "freezer bowl" was played in, in Cincinnati? I remember that winter being really cold, but don't remember a lot of snow until April vacation from school when we got a good 12-18"...

Might've been 1985.  There was a giant Arctic high that encompassed nearly the whole country.  Fort Kent, where we lived then, was at the east edge of the high and avoided record cold but never warmed up - January never got above 22F, but the coldest was a modest -23.  Only the very AN Jan 1983 failed to get colder.  In the other 8 winters we lived there, January's bottoms ranged from -30 to -47.
1981-82 had 185.8" total snowfall but had only 2 events with 12"+, 15.5" in Dec 19-20 and 17" in the April blizzard.  January's coldest that year was -34 on the 18th, which came with winds 25-35 (WCI -101 on the old chart, about -70 in the new) and visibility of 3 miles in very light snow.  Got all the way up to -14 that afternoon.  Northern Maine can't compete with northern MN, but Jan '82's temp was 9/-12, only Jan 1994 was colder.  (We'd moved to southern Maine in late 1985, and '94 there was quite cold, too.)

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Ha yeah. It’s been all downhill from there. It’s going to take a lot to get back up to the 43” depth I had…there was a ton of water in that pack to support it. Around 20” right now and there’s still room to compact.

We had 43" depth on Feb 29, 2008 with 10-14" forecast ("Manitoba Mauler") for March 1; I figured 50+ was in the bag.  Got only 6" which pushed the pack to 48", tops for that season, and there was still 35" on 3/31.  Somewhere (not in the spreadsheet) I have a core measurement from March 2008, probably 13-14" as we totaled 142.3" and most of the snow had meat.  DJFM precip totaled 22" and we had no extended thaws, just the one-day torch on Jan 8.

Took a core earlier this afternoon, 20" pack held 3.86".  We probably had about 2" SWE in year end's 8" pack and we've had 2.59" since then (includes 0.54" from 2 modest Jan RA).   Factor in some sublimation and almost 4" seems appropriate.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What's your coldest April low?

Here's the coldest for each month, May 1998 on, contrasted with Fort Kent, Jan1, 1976 thru Oct 25, 1985.

Month   New Sharon   Fort Kent   Month   New Sharon   Fort Kent
   JAN             -36          -47              JUL               37          32
   FEB              -29         -32              AUG              35          28
   MAR            -25          -32              SEP               23          20
   APR                5            -7               OCT               11            7
   MAY             21            20               NOV              -4         -12
   JUN             27            28               DEC             -31         -42

 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. 
 

They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. 
 

Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months. 

March 2018 temps 1-15 were 5.1° AN and 36.4" snow fell.  Rest of the month was 4.0° BN (and 3° colder than 1-15) but had only 0.7" snow.

1917-18 included NYC's coldest week.  Dec 29-Jan 4 temp avg was 9.3/-44 - that's 32.7 BN.  12/30 had 2/-13, 41 BN. 
(Dec 1917 and Jan 1918 are NYC's coldest for each month since records began in 1869.)

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I liked SLK’s -29 on St Patty’s in 2014. They did -25 a week later too.

Not too many mornings below 0° in April during the ASOS era though.

Our coldest March here.  We had -17 on 3/25/14, though the Month's coldest was -21 on the 6th.  Had 30.8" and the pack reached 43".

Ah I see said the blind man

The way I heard it:
"I see, said the blind carpenter as he picked up his hammer and saw."

High of 34 ended a 20-day run of maxima 32 or colder.  Longest run was Jan-Feb 2015 with 33.  Jan-Feb 2007 had 31 and only the 33 on Jan 24 broke a 42-day run. 
(Dwarfed by Fort Kent, no surprise.  Dec 16, 1976 thru Feb 27, 1977 for 74 days, and only 5 of them had no flakes.  That period brought 117.2" snowfall.)

4.7" with 0.35" LE, right in the forecast range.  Pack back up to 22".  Most probably fell 11 PM-2 AM.

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 were about 0.4F behind at this point. Still quite cold but tied for 23rd while this year is tied for 17th

Coldest DJM here, 1998-99 and forward, was 14-15 with 13.1°- no surprise.  Both 02-03 and 13-14 had 13.5°, 02-03 fractionally colder.  Adding March puts 13-14 in first place with 14.7° thanks to a very cold March.  14-15 is 2nd at 15.3°.
In Gardiner, 85-86 thru 97-98, coldest for DJM and DJFM was 93-94, with 16.1° and 19.8°, respectively.  95-96 was BN but 92-93 was a bit colder.

Day 18 of consecutive subzero minima, tying with Fort Kent in 1982, with -9.  No chance to extend the streak.

14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC I think the -7 1934 entry is just the midnight low on the way down to the -15, as are some other NYC record lows. There are several -6 lows that would be next in the list of morning lows. 

That is correct.  The other -7 came on Dec 31, 1917, the day after the -13 minimum.  My records show 6 days of -6 at NYC and one of them was 12/29/1917, likely an 11:59 reading. 
Dec 29, 1917-Jan 4, 1918 stands alone as Central Park's coldest week.

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Back when BTV radiated... they used to put up some impressive lows.

-18F at BOS is the most impressive though of those.

I'd choose NYC.  Five coldest mornings:
     BOS            NYC
-18   1934       -15   1934
-17   1933       -13   1917
-15   1933        -8   1943
-14   1943        -7   1917
-12   1957        -7    1934

from HV:
No crazy stretches of daytime low temperatures but I’ve had 17 mornings at or below zero now. Year of the radiators.

Today makes 17 straight subzero mornings.  Forecast has #18 tomorrow, which would tie 1982 in Fort Kent for my longest anywhere.

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

sarcasm sure...but with Spring 3 weeks away, true, it won't.

Met spring, true, but here March is 50/50 - 50% of months are transition and 50% are winter.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anecdotally, that kind of reminds of that Deathstar band at the end of 12-9-2005

Or March 21, 1992.  Lived in Gardiner then and got a 2.4" overnight surprise.  11.4" at PWM and 2 feet at Goose Rocks Beach (Kennebunkport).  Several hours of 6"/hr for the 2-footer.  First time I saw the word "Norlun".

Some eentsy snow grains sailing by.

I wonder if that RI band will crush Cumberland.  

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's going to be a late spring this year IMO....even by our standards.

Hope it warms up in late May - last year the pollination window for our apples and quinces was 9 days of rainy 40s.  Fertilization was terrible.

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good cold pool with that shot

Hudson Valley horror?

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s no chance NYC goes below 0F. Unless there is just some sort of catastrophic model failure of 3-5C at 925mb. 

Or a freaky event like Feb 8, 1963.  At 11 PM on 2/7 it was 30° and Tex Antoine forecast a low of 20.  When the temp dropped to 25 at midnight we wondered.  By 6 the next morning Central Park reported 5° and by 7 it had dropped to 2.  The low was -2 that morning with a stiff NW breeze, and some forecasters were talking 5-10 below zero for the next morning and were explaining the bust was due to a very cold blob somehow slipped from above to ground level.  (I understood none of that.)  The cold disappeared as fast as it arrived; after an afternoon high of 16 on 2/8 the temp only got down to 11 on 2/9 and by 2/10 the day's temp was 40/30, with 1.1" RA on 2/11-12.

Got down to -2 during the overnight, the 15th straight day with subzero minima.  That tops the 14 days on Jan 15-28, 2003 for the longest run here.  Checked my Fort Kent  records, thinking that place would have much longer runs, but tops (and only one longer than 14 days) was 18 from Jan 16 thru Feb 2, 1982.

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beverly has 10”

Beverly 1.3 ENE cocorahs report at 8:45 was 11.7".

Light echoes overhead here, but nothing's making it thru the dry air - pretty much as was forecast.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

OKX soundings had -25C and -26C at 925 for 2/4/23 12z and 2/14/16 12z respectively. Mins at Central Park were +3 and -1. LGA was +5 and +1.

MOS has mins of +7 with this right now.

That early February blast in 2023 packed significant wind here, and probably NYC as well.  I don't think this weekend will have as deep a WCI as back then.