tamarack

Lol….ya that’s only if it’s accumulating snow…flakes in the air doesn’t count. 

Estcourt Station

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

31F with solid frost again.

This weather on the holiday weekend, going to be a gong-show in the leaf peeping spots.

They'll be around here, too, but we're well past peak.  Some late-turning maples will still be colorful and the aspens are peaking.

Clear blue this morning, low was mid-upper 30s.

We've had measurable rain on 3 of 8 days this month, which would project 137 such days per year, only 7 days less than average (average precip is 48.83)".  Total precip is 0.06" - totaling 2.74" for the year.  No wonder the Sandy River is in the bottom 10% and Carrabassett in the bottom 5%.

The upper halves of trees here are 90% de-leafed.  Lower half about halfway.  Today's wind hasn't been grabbing much foliage so far.

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"

Car batteries know that it's real, but only in the lower levels - go up 100 yards and the temp would be significantly higher.  When we lived on sloping ground at 970' asl in the back settlement of Fort Kent, after calm clear overnights we'd see the smoke layer above the sawmill cone burner across the St. John and would know that it was 10°+ colder than our place at the riverside office.  It's a similar "fake" when growing season transpiration brings tall TDs - in each case the extreme conditions aren't the same as the overall airmass.

Temp had dropped into the upper 30s by 10 PM last night, so I expected mid-upper 20s.  Maybe the wind returned, as our low was 33.

13 hours ago, vortex95 said:

CAR 2.5" Sep 29-30, 1991 for its first measurable snow on record in Sep.  2" at Glen NH Sep 16, 1986 as a spinner occurred at the same time in Scituate MA.  @CoastalWx be like, "how can that be!?" 

When we lived in Fort Kent, we had slushy flakes during a northeast storm on Sept 14, 1977.  Places above 1,000 asl had 2"+.  Five years later when we lived near that 1,000 mark in the back settlement, we had slushy flakes on August 28.

Had some high 30s gusts 9-10 AM, still pretty windy.  About 70% leaf drop and climbing - was a great autumn for colors while it lasted.  In another topic, got a couple of deer ticks yesterday, first I've seen since June.  The horrid beasts seem to disappear in late summer here.

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Shouldn't have opened my fat mouth. I hate Mondays.

Murphy is alive and active.

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know. I’m skeptical we ever see anything if high pressure builds in and buries that potential system south. 

1899 is one of the all time greats in U.S. history imo. 

Incredible cold blast.  Minus 2 at Tallahassee, 2nd coldest week at Central Park (though well behind 12/29/17-1/4/18) and the NJ snow paradox - the state's least snowy spot gets 34", biggest snowfall in NJ records.

2 hours ago, BrianW said:

@tamarack Helped my wifes uncle close up their lake cabin this weekend near Morristown, NJ. Some impressive tree damage from that July 3rd storm with lots of local reports of 75 -80 mph winds.

Almost all the damage was red oaks that split around 25-50 feet up. There is a lot of old growth trees and  tons of 100+ year old giant Tulip Poplars that didnt even loose a branch. 

 

Red oaks, also white ash, are easy to split.  Therefore, when those species have V-shaped forks, they're vulnerable to ice and/or wind.

Another pure blue day after the frost.  Colors are past peak, ash nearly bare, oaks mostly still green.

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Idk…the trees don’t seem stressed. We’ve had decent rain in Aug and Sep unlike last year. The colors are vibrant…not the sickly looking color last year that quickly browned.

I think all of those cooler max temp days and 50s for highs are having an effect. 

We had 107% of average rain April-June but only 66% for July-Sept.  However, we had frosts on 23-24 and 8 other September mornings in the 30s.  Whatever the reason, the colors have been spectacular.

Currently I'm watching sugar maple leaves raining past the window, despite nearly calm wind and 60s, so we'll soon be past peak.  The morning low of 60 here is 20° AN, and yesterday's 73 was only one degree below the warmest we had last month.  Clouds still look thick, so I don't think we'll get much past 70, if any at all.

First time I've seen the "S" word from GYX this season - Monday's strong CF may have some light snow at elevation during that night.

27 minutes ago, Layman said:

Drought monitor claims the recent rain had no impact in NH. 
My totals at home are:

May 7.37”

June 3.62”

July 2.75”

August 3.26”

September 5.87”

Total 22.87” 

Is just under two feet of rain low?

That's averaging 4.57"/month.  Projected over 12 months, it's nearly 55".  I'd guess that's a bit AN; 45-50 seems more likely.  My average here is currently 48.6".

Foggy 50 has turned to blue sky 60s.

September numbers

Avg max:    65.1   -2.7   Warmest, 74 on the 10th.  That's our lowest monthly Sept max; previous was 76 in multiple Septs.
Avg. min:    45.3  -0.5   Coolest, 30 on the 24th
Mean:         53.2  -1.6   Coolest Sept since 2019.

Precip:    3.06"   -0.61"   Wettest day, 0.99" on the 28th.  The long-duration storm on 27-29 totaled 1.75".

Other than the above storm, September was an unremarkable month.  No strong wind, no thunder, no real heat, no real drama.  The precip deficit since the end of June had brought the Sandy River down to the lowest 5% of its records for September 26th, data since 1929, and the 1.75" barely moved the flow to the 25th percentile.  That said, fall colors came about a week earlier than average and the reds are as good as it gets.  Other colors, yellows and the maroon ash, are good as well.

 

16 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Peak seems a solid week early for you?  Perhaps drought is playing a role?  

Maybe, but even after 46 years as a forester, I can't figure out the reasons for great/average/awful colors.  We had slightly AN rain in May/June then about 50% of average July thru Sept 26, and met summer was AN but nowhere near our warmest.  I've read that drought limits the colors, but it's still a 'maybe' from me.  Same opinion for excessive rain.

Our worst color year, by a lot, was 2005.  May that year was 200% of average rain with 6° BN temp, easily the coolest here.  (Ask Tip about May 2005 - he has a strong opinion of that month.  )  June thru September had AN temps (Sept '26 will finish about 1.5 BN) and slightly BN rain.  By October 7 the color was middling (next to none of reds), 7-10 days later than average.  Then 8-10 had nearly 6" rain on strong winds which brought down about 80% of the leaves.  Phooey!

7 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is there a specific reason why the swamp maples always seem to turn early and be so vibrant?  My simple guess is something to do with the moisture in their environment, but I was curious if there's some solid known reason.  Or, am I just imagining they turn early to begin with 

"Swamp maples" are almost always red maples (Acer rubrum) on a wet site.  The wetness lowers fertility and keeps the roots somewhat cooler than on well drained sites, probably causing that early turning (as you guessed).  The color is common for most red maples (excellent this year), though there's a variety of sorts that turns yellow (also good).

Finished this event with 1.75", fortunately about 3 times more than I expected.  Month up to 3.06" (average is 3.70"), almost enough to get Sandy River over the 25th percentile.

Colors here are at/near peak, with lots of red maples wonderfully bright.  Birches and sugar maples approaching peak, white ash well past, about 75% leaf drop around here on that species. 
Red oaks:  Autumn?  What's that?

Finally got some decent rain - 0.70" overnight.  Mostly very light rain since, event total including Sunday early is approaching 0.90", biggest precip since August 3.

4 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Didn’t the 1950 storm happen in November? Seems like an apples to oranges comparison.

 

Nov 25th, my earliest weather memory.  Dad, older brother and I watched the trees getting thrashed from our NNJ back porch.  When some tops/branches broke, Dad said it was time to go inside.  That and the howling NW gales of 12/31/62 (back side of the BGR blizzard) are the strongest winds I've experienced.  Farther west (PA, WV) snowfall records were being set in '50.

RA stopped here about 7 AM, just clouds and breezes (<20 mph) since then.

0.12" overnight, trees barely moving.  Might finish with more than 1/2".

Blue skies here.  The only rain is of ash leaves, as that species is near full color and 1/4 dropped.  Hope we get some decent rain, though I'm not optimistic.
Current flow numbers for today on the Sandy River:
Median:      154 cfs
25th percentile:  91 cfs
Lowest on record:  39 cfs, in 1939.
Current flow:  43  cfs

20 hours ago, tamarack said:

Death Valley Nat. Park July average is 117/91.  On 7/1/26, when the norm is 115/89, the 107/87 was 5° BN.

Touched 30 this morning, waiting on the weekend rain (assuming it's getting much this far north).

Yesterday's frost toasted all of the cucurbits, only minor damage to peppers and tomatoes.  They're a bit higher, especially the 'maters.

Quite the run of sun here, though it ends later today.  September here has had the most proportion of available sunshine of any month, slightly more than August.  (November and December jockey for least, with the latter currently 'winning'.)

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Maybe at Furnace Creek.

Tough way to run an endless summer.

Death Valley Nat. Park July average is 117/91.  On 7/1/26, when the norm is 115/89, the 107/87 was 5° BN.

Touched 30 this morning, waiting on the weekend rain (assuming it's getting much this far north).

31 this morning, dew on the car roof was still frozen at 8 AM despite full sun.  Average for first frost is Sept 20, so slightly tardy this year.  Over the past 6 years, 3 of which had first frost in October, the average has become 3 days later.

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be a forest flattener

Sable Island has trees?

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

36° here. I’m headed to FL for the week so I haven’t paid much attention to the forecast for here. Doesn’t look too bad though. Cool with some showers?  

Same 36 here, but it's my wife going to FL, for her sister's 70th BD.  Lots of heat there (between Ocala and Gainesville) with 90/70 days for at least the first week.

Saw significant (for mid-Sept) color changes on the BGR-and-back drive, white ash 50% color, red maple 10-20% (near full in the swamps), some color on birches and aspens.  Seems a bit early as temps are only slightly BN this month, though the BN rain (50% of avg) since late June might be a factor.

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Looks a little torchy for Pit2, though that might not really matter.  Some decent snows possible.

Worked well here in 2022-23.
       Temp(+/-)  SN22-23  SN avg
DEC      +4.0       23.3"      19.4"
JAN      +9.0*     29.9"     20.2"   *Warmest January, POR 1999-2026
FEB       +1.4       16.3"      21.7"
MAR     +3.0       27.9"      17.0"
Ironic that the month with least AN temp had the only BN snow.