tamarack

06z GFS has about 2" thru day 16, pretty much the average here for that period, which would be fine. Trend has been down for a day or so, with 1"+ for Sunday/Sun night, then scattered bits after that. MA states still getting sloshed.

If the coast gets serious wind from the Sunday system, SST warming will have to start over.

Bullseye right over the Passaic basin. Of course, the hot spot will wiggle around as the event gets closer.

Folks in NNJ near the Pompton/Passaic/Ramapo Rivers better start moving things to higher ground. That map plus the area's flood history make for an ominous combo.

Also it's much slower, both opening and moving around the site. TWC seems to have bizarro-Midas touch. Instead of gold, what they touch turns to &*$#.

In April nearly 25 years ago I was on a flight from Cincinnati (temps in 80s) to Omaha (40s), and observed a SW-NE line of discrete cells stitched across Indiana. Pilot took us between 2 with little fanfare, and their tops were many thousand feet above our altitude, which was mid-30s. Later I heard that a TOR had caused fatalities in southern MI that evening.

Putting the blame on societal greed seems overly simplistic. The de-institutioning movement was also fueled by medical specialistas who opined that it would allow clients to re-enter society as productive members. Unfortunately, the follow-up was underfunded (societal greed was indeed a factor) and the crucial halfway houses triggered mongo NIMBY-ism. Thus, within a year or two of Augusta "freeing" most residents of AMHI, the city had to spring for a million or so to have tall screening installed on both sides of the high bridge, to deter suicides. The patients' rights movement, a good thing all in all, also had unintended consequences, as those with mental issues could and did refuse meds and therapy at will, sometimes with violent outcomes.

Act II was much the better. Only got a measly 0.04" from the early afternoon line, then 0.76" between 9 and 10 PM, with nearly all (0.65? 0.7?) coming in the first 15 minutes. Meh lightning, 1-2 flashes/min, none closer than 8 seconds, but my first opportunity to watch at night. July precip now 1.90", about 90% of average. For Roosta: In October 2007, a month before turning 56, my wife had emergency double bypass surgery - we had less than an hour to worry ahead of time, probably a good thing. She had essentially no complications - a 2-second A-fib 2 days later that she didn't even feel but that brought nurses on the run. (And you are so right about that profession!) Nearly 11 years later there have been no heart issues; can't ask for more than that. Hope your results are similar.

MHT had 2.30" 8A-2P, and were reporting TS at 4. Probably some fun there. If Lava Hill got only 0.23", radar over my place indicates considerably less. Hope that line cooking up by the frontier can add something.

Rain just reached Augusta. Looks like southern Franklin gets the 7-10, with a flood advisory up near Jackman and lots of downpours to the south. Hope there's a 2nd act behind this one (nothing on radar yet) because those light greens over the home front look like maybe a tenth or two.

It would be nice if that were true, but IMO people who are making millions of dirty dollars aren't going to just dry up and go away. The cartels operate somewhat like any business, and if a product line becomes unprofitable (in this case, because it's been made legitimate), those folks will try to make their bucks from something else, maybe some deadly but attractive chemical we've not yet heard of. Five years ago I'd never heard of fentanol or bath salts - what's next? Americans often go for what looks like the simple and easy answers, and in this issue there are none, though the maintenance programs noted above are one arrow in the quiver, as are better non-prison options for mental care.

Average high here is 79 thru yesterday, which is nearly 3° AN. Average low is 54, only 0.3° AN. We were just east of the dry air yesterday, under the clouds until near noon and dews low 60s, temp 79/60.

And the "safest" state, according to that link, had a guy murder a deputy sheriff this past spring. The perp's testimony at his arrangement was that the deputy had previously arrested the perp's gf for possession of drugs, can't remember the substance other than it was not marijuana. It can happen anywhere.

Yesterday's midday clouds capped the high at 73 after the morning 44, nice dry 7° BN day. Saw puddles in Augusta, little AM shower dropped up to 0.1" along the I-95/Rt 1 corridors from there south. Local river at 112 cfs, just 30 above record low for the date. Tomorrow looks moisture starved but Tuesday night may be a lot better - at least until the incredible shrinking qbf kicks in about 0z Monday morning.

Trailcams weren't a thing back about 20 years, but I still wish I'd had one watching the 25" by 80 ft pine on the state lot in Topsham get struck. By the time I saw it in early October, the needles had lost half their green, but the scene was still spectacular. About 15 ft of the trunk was turned to gigantic splinters, some 100+ pound ones up to 50 ft from momma. The top 40+ ft was "planted" arrow-straight about 4 ft from the 25 ft tall "stump" (which decayed and tipped 6-8 years ago.)

Agreed. I record sky conditions as sunny, PC, or cloudy, and the most sunny days I've had in July is 11, in 2010. Average is between 4 and 5, already passed this month with 7. Also have recorded at least 3 cloudy days in July and the average is 6. 2018 currently at zero and likely to remain there at least thru Tuesday. Yesterday was a sunny and dry 75/54. Low this morning was pretty close to your 43 with autumnal blue skies, though it's currently mostly cloudy, making today a "CoC PC".

Guess you'd like your drinks with leaf bits and twigs.

There was a 13-year period here when March minima showed an awesome alternation. Month average almost di, but 2008 broke the string by never getting any warmth (max was 47) and would've spoiled the minima had it not been leap year - Feb. 29 had low of -26. 2000 -6 32.3 2001 -25 24.6 2002 -3 27.7 2003 -23 24.2 2004 -2 29.5 2005 -19 25.0 2006 -3 29.2 2007 -23 25.8 2008 -8 24.5 2009 -17 26.5 2010 +11 35.0 2011 -22 22.5 2012 -10 34.4 Since then neither the means nor minima show any pattern. It's worth noting (to me) that March 2010 was milder than 2012 despite the latter's record-burying heat wave. Max for 3/10 was a modest 64 while 3/12 had one day at 64 but also maxima of 68, 74. 77. 79. and 80. It also had a minima of -10 and 5 days with sub-freezing maxima while the coolest max for 3/10 was 35. That 90° range for 3/12 is the greatest for any month I've measured, topping the 87° of Jan. 1979 (40/-47) in Ft. Kent.

Depends on how much fell. 24 hours after the Rome defoliator of 8/30/2007, which had hail accumulation up to 4" (mostly dimes-nickels), there were still runoff-built piles 2 feet deep, though the cloudy 60s on the 31st helped. On my drive home from work, I stopped and put a few handfuls in a small bag to show my wife. The morning commute had featured more piles, a remaining bit of "broadcast" white, and a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad for about a mile on Rt 27. I still kick myself for not driving out to look at dusk the day before, when I'd first heard about what had happened just 6-8 miles from home.

Saw on the evening news where a Deering-area house got nailed by a large tree. Homeowner being interviewed was in a surprisingly good mood, considering that her home had serious damage, including a hole in the roof and resultant water damage.

"Too soon we grow old; too late we grow smart." My pond went totally dry this AM. It's happened a couple times in the past. During the big drought of 2015 I believe it went dry at the end of July. Dryness very evident up here. Likewise. Local river dropping steadily, now at 134 cfs. 25th percentile ins 196, record low flow 92. Might be close to that by early next week.

Was optimistic, as that "stuff to the NW" was DOA. Saturday is looking weaker as well, though it's barely inside 100 hr.

Nice alternate-year sequence: Odd years avg 13.51", even, 7.25". Doesn't work at my place due to a very wet June in 2012 and in early July of 2014. High (2013) and low (2018) are the same, however.

Small bright echoes appeared very close to my place (but downrange, as is common.) Stuff to the NW appears to be weakening. Probably another 20-drop event.

How long ago was the temperature facet dropped from blizz criteria? I've had just 4 qualifiers in my 20 winters here - 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 1/27-28/15, and 3/14-15/17. If the below-20 requirement were still in effect, only the middle 2 would've fit, though 03 was close. Edit: In my experience, big snowstorms have come in bunches, probably not an oddity in a stochastic universe. Of the 9 NNJ storms 18"+ that I experienced from 1950 thru my move to BGR in 1/1973, 7 came in less than 5 years, 3/56 thru 2/61. In 9.7 Ft. Kent winters, we had 7 snows taller than 15", and 5 came from 3/81 thru 3/84. At my current location there was one 15" event (15.1 on 4/1-2/11) between 2/09 and 1/15, and we've now had 5 such storms in the past 2 winters. Still awaiting a 30-incher, however.